Darvish to Cubs

[brett05]

Hell I can still remember Maddon making bad decisions in the 2016 playoffs. People just forgive it because they won.

Perhaps I missed it but I don't see anyone calling Joe a genius

 

[A.E]

Lester / Darvish / Quintana is sick and that doesn't even include Hendricks.

It baffles me how people can't see this. I think their rotation is even better.

And their offense underperformed last year.

Brewers have no chance at beating the Cubs for the division. They had no chance last year, the Cubs just had a bad start.

 
- You need to deep-dive into the numbers.  Lester/Darvish/Quintana in 2015 was something to brag about.  They're still an excellent rotation on paper but like I said, all three weren't great last season.  Consider how expendable Darvish and Quintana suddenly became to their former clubs.
 
- Cubs offense didn't under-perform last year, they'll more or less came back down to Earth. Schwarber will never consistently hit outside of the DH spot, Heyward will never consistently hit again, Zobrist is now over the hill, and neither Baez or Addy figures much into the offense.
 
- Brewers added two big pieces to an offense that scored a shit-ton of runs in 2016.  They sign Arrieta or acquire a front-line SP and it's a wrap.

 

[Mexi]

Some egregiously bad takes in here. Yikes

 

[PWNdroia]

 
- You need to deep-dive into the numbers.  Lester/Darvish/Quintana in 2015 was something to brag about.  They're still an excellent rotation on paper but like I said, all three weren't great last season.  Consider how expendable Darvish and Quintana suddenly became to their former clubs.
 
- Cubs offense didn't under-perform last year, they'll more or less came back down to Earth. Schwarber will never consistently hit outside of the DH spot, Heyward will never consistently hit again, Zobrist is now over the hill, and neither Baez or Addy figures much into the offense.
 
- Brewers added two big pieces to an offense that scored a shit-ton of runs in 2016.  They sign Arrieta or acquire a front-line SP and it's a wrap.

I look at career numbers, not a single down year to say they're not good pitchers.  They're too good to not bounce back.  Almost every instance of a down year for pitchers who have had great years results in some kind of bounce back.  I go by career stats until I see something consistently showing decline.
 
The Cubs may not have the greatest offense, but they have enough in the tank to compare even without Shwarber or Zobrist.  I never considered those guys big names anyway as hitters.  Rizzo at first base, Kris Bryant, and even Contreras at the plate are big offensive pieces.  Maybe not superior to Turner, Bellinger, and Seager, but definitely good enough on their own if complemented with the pitching.
 
Brewers don't have a single front-runner for their starting pitching.  Even if they got one, the Cubs have three.  Top that off with Lorenzo Cain and Yelich who are decent additions, but nothing spectacular on their own and you're looking at a wild card team at best.  Thames will not hit 30 homeruns again.

 

[PWNdroia]

Some egregiously bad takes in here. Yikes

It's not egregious when it actually happens.  You can think what you want, but I think in the end, Cubs and Dodgers will have similar records, with a great possibility the Cubs will be better.

 

[A.E]

I look at career numbers, not a single down year to say they're not good pitchers.  They're too good to not bounce back.  Almost every instance of a down year for pitchers who have had great years results in some kind of bounce back.  I go by career stats until I see something consistently showing decline.
 
The Cubs may not have the greatest offense, but they have enough in the tank to compare even without Shwarber or Zobrist.  I never considered those guys big names anyway as hitters.  Rizzo at first base, Kris Bryant, and even Contreras at the plate are big offensive pieces.  Maybe not superior to Turner, Bellinger, and Seager, but definitely good enough on their own if complemented with the pitching.
 
Brewers don't have a single front-runner for their starting pitching.  Even if they got one, the Cubs have three.  Top that off with Lorenzo Cain and Yelich who are decent additions, but nothing spectacular on their own and you're looking at a wild card team at best.  Thames will not hit 30 homeruns again.

 
Looking at career numbers and expecting "bounce-back" seasons is fine, but not when pitchers progress further into their 30s.  Jon Lester is 34 and his velocity is headed south.  Darvish is still only 31 but his metrics have inflated more each season.  Matter of fact, he's near an ERA of 4.00 by end of season, if the trend continues.  Quintana needed to bounce back from a rough close to 2016 and he didn't.  The Cubs can't afford him to be good one in every four starts this year and moving forward.
 
You're also overrating a Cubs offense that literally only has 2 reliable run-producers while downplaying the Brewers additions of Cain & Yelich.  The Brewers outfield will out-slug the entire Cubs roster.  Regarding their rotation...
 
Chase Anderson was 12-4 with an ERA of 2.74 in 2017
Zach Davis is 25 and won 17 games last season; ERA of 3.90
Jimmy Nelson was 12-6 with an ERA of 3.49
 
Not a sexy top 3 but they don't need to be lights out. The Brewers will score runs.  Either way, Milwaukee isn't letting up on finding another starter.

 

[Pugz]

Some egregiously bad takes in here. Yikes

and you know a bad take when you see one.

 

[Mexi]

Pwn, who eliminated the cubs? I forget

 

[PWNdroia]

 
Looking at career numbers and expecting "bounce-back" seasons is fine, but not when pitchers progress further into their 30s.  Jon Lester is 34 and his velocity is headed south.  Darvish is still only 31 but his metrics have inflated more each season.  Matter of fact, he's near an ERA of 4.00 by end of season, if the trend continues.  Quintana needed to bounce back from a rough close to 2016 and he didn't.  The Cubs can't afford him to be good one in every four starts this year and moving forward.
 
You're also overrating a Cubs offense that literally only has 2 reliable run-producers while downplaying the Brewers additions of Cain & Yelich.  The Brewers outfield will out-slug the entire Cubs roster.  Regarding their rotation...
 
Chase Anderson was 12-4 with an ERA of 2.74 in 2017
Zach Davis is 25 and won 17 games last season; ERA of 3.90
Jimmy Nelson was 12-6 with an ERA of 3.49
 
Not a sexy top 3 but they don't need to be lights out. The Brewers will score runs.  Either way, Milwaukee isn't letting up on finding another starter.

Lester has had a history of pitching up and down.  All and all, he's got the stuff to be very good.  I wouldn't doubt him even at his age.  He's always been above average.  Darvish pitched better down the run with the Dodgers than he did with the Rangers and while his ERA came to be 3.86, this isn't outright terrible.  His debut season he had a 3.90 ERA and he showed very much promise then.  Again, this is not a natural decline since he has been up and down at times, but still above average.  He had an FIP under 3.30 for every year except this past year.  Quintana was never a top pitcher, but he's always been a serviceable #3 with better than average stuff.  And, despite Quintana's high ERA in 2017, his FIP was still around 3.70 which is quite respectable.
 
Who are the two reliable run producers on the Cubs?  As much as you are against Schwarber, he still hits 30 homeruns which drives in runs.  I agree he's not the best, but there's a lot of teams who take low .200 hitters who are sluggers (Carlos Pena, Mike Reynolds, Adam Dunn).  It's just funny how everyone says the Cubs cannot hit after their offense wasn't great for one year.  One year.  And honestly, stats disprove this.  In 2016, they had one of the best offenses and they were great in 2017 as well.  It's funny you say they can't score runs.  The 2017 Cubs scored more runs (822) than the 2016 Cubs (808 runs).  The Dodgers, on the other hand, only scored 770 runs in 2017 and 725 runs in 2016.  So how do the Cubs not have run producers?  If you don't believe me, check baseball.reference.com.
 
As for the Brewers, Chase Anderson has only pitched one good season out of four, Zach Davies has a WHIP almost at 1.4 and an FIP over 4.00 in 2017, and Jimmy Nelson also has only had one great season (2017).  I'll take the proven starters of Lester, Quintana, and Darvish who have thrown multiple successful seasons, hands down, no questions asked.

 

[PWNdroia]

Pwn, who eliminated the cubs? I forget

Funny you mention that when the Dodgers were eliminated four years straight.  You're banking on one year for your whole argument, one in which offense unusually took most of the series (and likely won't happen again).
 
The Dodgers played way over their heads.  Rich Hill, as dominating as you claimed, had an FIP in the high three's and still cannot pitch more than 140 innings.  Ryu had an FIP at 4.74, which is a whole run higher than his ERA of 3.77.  Maeda is slightly above average.  I don't even know how they pitched so well with a #1 in their rotation and nothing else.  Darvish filled in #2 once he came aboard, but Kershaw / Darvish doesn't round out a rotation.
 
The only proven thing the Dodgers have on the pitching side is Kershaw and Jansen.
 
Offensively, they have Bellinger and Seager.  Puig is a toss up.  He'll only play well if he's feeling like he wants to play on the given day and Turner may hit around .290 or so, but he's not hitting .330 again.  Plus with his age (if you believe in regression), he may soon decline.
 
You claim the Dodgers are in a great state, maybe with prospects they are, but I think they're laughable.  They're almost as bad as the Nationals.  Their postseason bound only to lose and they have the highest payroll (or did).  I think the payroll will go down, but them and the Nationals have a race to see who loses the most in the postseason.  The only reason the Dodgers won 100 games is because most of the NL was pretty bad, and they only got to the World Series last year was because they overplayed the other teams, and there was no other runaway team in the NL.  The Cubs literally gave up their chance when they should have been to the World Series a second year (2016 hangover).  I think no matter what last year, the AL was going to win it.  The Yankees, Astros, and the Indians all had more depth than any of the NL teams outside of the underplaying Cubs.
 
Oh, and the other reason the Dodgers did win?  Dave Roberts is a great manager.  I do give him all the credit he deserves.  He's good.

 

[A.E]

Lester has had a history of pitching up and down.  All and all, he's got the stuff to be very good.  I wouldn't doubt him even at his age.  He's always been above average.  Darvish pitched better down the run with the Dodgers than he did with the Rangers and while his ERA came to be 3.86, this isn't outright terrible.  His debut season he had a 3.90 ERA and he showed very much promise then.  Again, this is not a natural decline since he has been up and down at times, but still above average.  He had an FIP under 3.30 for every year except this past year.  Quintana was never a top pitcher, but he's always been a serviceable #3 with better than average stuff.  And, despite Quintana's high ERA in 2017, his FIP was still around 3.70 which is quite respectable.
 
Who are the two reliable run producers on the Cubs?  As much as you are against Schwarber, he still hits 30 homeruns which drives in runs.  I agree he's not the best, but there's a lot of teams who take low .200 hitters who are sluggers (Carlos Pena, Mike Reynolds, Adam Dunn).  It's just funny how everyone says the Cubs cannot hit after their offense wasn't great for one year.  One year.  And honestly, stats disprove this.  In 2016, they had one of the best offenses and they were great in 2017 as well.  It's funny you say they can't score runs.  The 2017 Cubs scored more runs (822) than the 2016 Cubs (808 runs).  The Dodgers, on the other hand, only scored 770 runs in 2017 and 725 runs in 2016.  So how do the Cubs not have run producers?  If you don't believe me, check baseball.reference.com.
 
As for the Brewers, Chase Anderson has only pitched one good season out of four, Zach Davies has a WHIP almost at 1.4 and an FIP over 4.00 in 2017, and Jimmy Nelson also has only had one great season (2017).  I'll take the proven starters of Lester, Quintana, and Darvish who have thrown multiple successful seasons, hands down, no questions asked.

You can’t look at overall run totals for a season and draw a consensus. Ultimately the Dodgers scored more runs than opponents, in more games last season than the Cubs. We can agree to disagree but I really don’t get the discounting you’re doing.

 

[PWNdroia]

You cant look at overall run totals for a season and draw a consensus. Ultimately the Dodgers scored more runs than opponents, in more games last season than the Cubs. We can agree to disagree but I really dont get the discounting youre doing.

How can you not? You said the Cubs have few run producers and yet I've shown they scored more runs than the Dodgers in 2016 and 2017. Whether they score runs inconsistently or not, they've still scored more than the Dodgers.

Like I said, the Cubs played far below expectations... They will do better this year.

Run prevention is not so much in the Cubs' favor, but I fully expect Cubs pitching to bounce back and once again put them on top.

 

[bosoxlover12]

Weird, I keep on hearing you guys saying whos going to win the World Series, but you guys keep forgetting to mention Rick Porcello and the Red Sox!!

 

[brett05]

 
Looking at career numbers and expecting "bounce-back" seasons is fine, but not when pitchers progress further into their 30s.  Jon Lester is 34 and his velocity is headed south.  Darvish is still only 31 but his metrics have inflated more each season.  Matter of fact, he's near an ERA of 4.00 by end of season, if the trend continues.  Quintana needed to bounce back from a rough close to 2016 and he didn't.  The Cubs can't afford him to be good one in every four starts this year and moving forward.
 
You're also overrating a Cubs offense that literally only has 2 reliable run-producers while downplaying the Brewers additions of Cain & Yelich.  The Brewers outfield will out-slug the entire Cubs roster.  Regarding their rotation...
 
Chase Anderson was 12-4 with an ERA of 2.74 in 2017
Zach Davis is 25 and won 17 games last season; ERA of 3.90
Jimmy Nelson was 12-6 with an ERA of 3.49
 
Not a sexy top 3 but they don't need to be lights out. The Brewers will score runs.  Either way, Milwaukee isn't letting up on finding another starter.

Gotta get this quoted before it gets erased.  LOL

 

[brett05]

 Quintana was never a top pitcher, but he's always been a serviceable #3 with better than average stuff.

So being top ten in WAR over a four year period is not a top pitcher?  #3?  I need a change of clothes I laughed so hard.

 

[brett05]

Weird, I keep on hearing you guys saying whos going to win the World Series, but you guys keep forgetting to mention Rick Porcello and the Red Sox!!

LOL

 

[A.E]

Gotta get this quoted before it gets erased.  LOL

Don’t start with your conspiracy theories already.

 

[Pugz]

So being top ten in WAR over a four year period is not a top pitcher?  #3?  I need a change of clothes I laughed so hard.

you laughed so hard you had to change your clothes? thats strange

 

[bosoxlover12]

you dont exclusively wear green pants when you laugh?

 

[Pugz]

i wear green pants all day, every day.