2014 MLB Season Thread

[elcheato]

Realistically, if we're ignoring advanced stats, shouldn't Adam Dunn replacing Cespedes in the lineup improve them even more? His offensive output is superior. 

 

[CameronCrazy06]

.264 BA, .767 OPS, 82 R, 21 HR, 94 RBI

.224 BA, .785 OPS, 45 R, 22 HR, 59 RBI

I'm not really sure how Dunn is superior. He walks more? A bit more power? That's about it

 

[elcheato]

Can't take that seriously if you're going to use runs and RBIs to compare. 

 

[CameronCrazy06]

Runs to a lesser extent but situational hitting is a skill which is why I don't like when stat-heads try to ignore RBI's

 

[elcheato]

Situational hitting is not a skill at all. I can find dozens of hitters who have had their averages with RISP change drastically from year to year. It's random and always a small sample size. 

 

[snipezo]

J.P Arencibia had 73RBI's in his rookie season. Does that make him a good hitter?

It's a stat for dinosaurs.

 

[CameronCrazy06]

Situational [/size]hitting is not a skill at all. I can find dozens of hitters who have had their averages with RISP change drastically from year to year. It's random and always a small sample size.

There's obviously such a thing as a fluke season but saying all hitters are the exact same hitters in clutch situations is foolish.

 

[elcheato]

They are, unless they purposely shorten up their swing to improve contact but lower power. That's different. 
 
Miguel Cabrera's average w/ RISP year to year throughout his entire career.
 
2003: .375
2004: .238
2005: .322
2006: .378
2007: .378
2008: .294
2009: .296
2010: .322
2011: .388
2012: .356
2013: .397
2014: .341
 
This is just one player, and he happens to be probably the most consistent pure hitter of our generation. Everyone's career looks like this with RISP. It's all over the place. Spikes up and down almost every year at unpredictable rates. 

 

[CameronCrazy06]

With the exception of 2004 that looks pretty darn consistent. Might have been a bad example haha

 

[elcheato]

How is that consistent? And the only reason I used him is because most would agree he is not only great, but highly consistent. Those aren't consistent numbers, other than a couple years. They spike usually by at least 30-50 points, up and down, and sometimes as drastic as 70-90, which is the point. It's not a relevant stat. 

 

[CameronCrazy06]

For a baseball hitter? Compare those numbers to his averages in all those years. I was sidetracked so I only eye-balled it, but in almost all those years it looked like his numbers were higher with RISP than normal. So yes, that's very consistent.

 

[elcheato]

BA W/ RISP | BA 
 
2003: .375 | .268
2004: .238 | .294
2005: .322 | .323
2006: .378 | .339
2007: .378 | .320
2008: .294 | .292
2009: .296 | .324
2010: .322 | .328
2011: .388 | .344
2012: .356 | .330
2013: .397 | .348
2014: .341 | .310
 
There is no pattern here, and nothing consistent about the numbers. In 2006 and 2007 his average w/ RISP was exactly the same
 
Despite a difference of 20 points in his actual batting average. 
 
His average w/ RISP dropped 140 points from his rookie year to his second year, despite his average rising by nearly 30 points
 
Basically the same average w/ RISP in 2008 and 2009, but a difference of 30+ in regular batting average. 
 
Had roughly the same batting average in 2009 and 2010, but his average w/ RISP were different by almost 30 points. 

I could keep going. There is nothing you can determine from those running in scoring position averages about what kind of a "situational" hitter Miguel Cabrera is. 
 
Miguel Cabrera has been hitting in the middle of the lineup for one of the best hitting teams over the past 5 years or so, and he still never passes 200 at bats with runners in scoring position, usually sits around 170. The sample is so small, and impossible to draw something from.  Even more so with players not in that situation/position. [SIZE=14.4444446563721px]This isn't science.[/SIZE]

 

[CameronCrazy06]

2004 is the one outlier. In every other season but 2009, he's been either exactly the same or better with RISP. if that's not consistent I don't know what is. I'm not going to beat a dead horse. Neither of us is changing the other's opinion.

 

[elcheato]

They're all outliers. You can continue to believe that situational hitting is actually a skill, that's fine, a lot of people do, but you can't say those numbers resemble anything consistent, because that's just flat out wrong. 

 

[CameronCrazy06]

His career numbers are a whole 26 points better. How is that a small sample size? He's a great hitter and he's even better with RISP. come on man, the stats are right in front of you.

 

[RipCity32]

Now ya'll talking about a Tiger without me even initiating the conversation

 

[elcheato]

There is nothing consistent year to year, that's the point. Someone doesn't get drastically worse and better at a skill every year like those stats would indicate. It's random. 

 

[CameronCrazy06]

He's been better in 8 of 12 years, and in 2 of the 4 he wasn't it was by less than ten points? And again, career numbers better by a full 26 points.

 

[elcheato]

 I'm not talking about his career totals, I just said that above. I'm not talking about any potential correlation with his regular batting average (despite their being none anyway). 
 
'03-'04: -.137
'04-'05: +.084
'05-'06: -.056
'06-'07:  0
'07-'08: -.084
'08-'09: +.002
'09-'10: +.026
'10-'11: +.066
'11-'12: -.032
'12-'13: +.041
'13-'14: -.056
 
The outliers in this example are when his spikes remain relatively consistent, I don't understand how that is not clear. 

 

[CameronCrazy06]

I don't know why you would look at spikes when his batting average spikes too. By that logic no hitter is very consistent. Look at his batting average with RISP, to his regular batting average. He's consistently a better hitter with RISP.