Zach Lowe Seven Crucial Questions For NBA's Homestretch

[jonathanlambert33]

1. Whats Up With the 2012 Finals Redux in Oklahoma City?

The Thunder are just 6-6 in their last 12 games, and 3-5 since the return of Russell Westbrook, centerpiece of the screamingest fan debates in the NBA. Oklahoma City has appeared for almost the entire season both with Westbrook and without him as the presumptive favorite in an increasingly loaded West. But Sundays disturbing loss against the turtling Lakers dropped Oklahoma City behind San Antonio, and shrunk its buffer zone against the surging Rockets and Clip Joint.2

Westbrook noise aside, the damage has almost entirely come on defense, where the Thunders ultra-aggressive pack-the-paint scheme has backfired amid a hail of wide-open 3-pointers. Oklahoma City has allowed 105.9 points per 100 possessions in that 6-6 stretch, the 14th-worst mark in the league over that span, per NBA.com and far below the Thunders normal top-five standard. Opponents have nailed an even 40 percent of their 3s in those 12 games, and 47 percent from the corners. The numbers are even hairier since Westbrooks return.

You have to acknowledge the caveats first. Thabo Sefolosha is the teams best perimeter defender, and he might be out until the playoffs. Westbrook is recovering from three knee surgeries in a year, and he has always been a bit reckless defensively. Kendrick Perkins is effective only in selective matchups, but losing two starters has a general trickle-down effect new lineups, more minutes for inexperienced players, and zero adjustment period for Caron Butler.

2. What Happened to the Pacers?

Indiana is just 7-7 in its last 14 games, and its once impenetrable defense has fallen apart since the All-Star break. That slippage has infected even the Pacers vaunted starting lineup, a five-man group normally immune to prolonged slumps.

The Pacers cannot afford any backsliding on defense, because they remain a bad offensive team. Theyre just 21st in points per 100 possessions, and theyve been even worse over the last month. Indiana is still turnover-prone, though not as unwatchably so as last season, and it just cant get its spacing as clean as it should be. Some of that is endemic. The Pacers play two post-up big men almost all the time, and without an elite off-the-dribble force, they have to create openings by using their guards as cutters and screeners along the baseline and elbow areas actions that clog the paint.

It doesnt help that no one respects Evan Turners shooting, or that Luis Scolas midrange jumper has proven unreliable. The Mavericks on Sunday were especially bold in playing off those two:

3. Is a Threat Lurking in the East?

I have considered the Pacers co-favorites within the East all season, but Ive also mentioned on several B.S. Report episodes that it wouldnt surprise me if the Pacers found themselves in a 2-2 series in the second round. Every round was a battle for Indiana last season, and lesser teams will have a chance to at least be competitive with the Pacers as long as opponents can count on Indys offense for two stink bombs every seven-game series.

Related story: Toronto is 29-15 since the Rudy Gay trade, and it has the fifth-best point differential in the league during that stretch behind only the Clippers, Thunder, Spurs, and Warriors. Dwane Casey has molded this group into a top-10 defense despite uneven play from Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas. Its playing the pick-and-roll a bit more conservatively these days, and partly as a result, its coaxing more midrange jumpers from opposing offenses and has kicked its multiyear foul addiction.

4. Whos Gonna Tank Now?

Oh, baby. As of Tuesday morning, four teams had exactly 22 wins, two had 24 wins, the Sixers had just missed perhaps their best chance of avoiding what might be a 36-game losing streak, and two teams were at least beginning to think about protected first-round picks. This is going to be fun.

When the Pelicans flipped Philly a top-five protected 2014 first-rounder in the Jrue Holiday deal, they imagined sending the Sixers a pick somewhere in the no. 12-15 range. That could still happen, but the Pellies are one slump away from a catastrophic scenario in which they slide down to no. 7 or no. 8, and they have the second-toughest remaining schedule in the league. On the other side, getting into top-five position is probably hopeless without some lottery luck; the Pellies have more wins than every current Eastern Conference lottery team, and theyre four games up on the Lakers-Jazz-Kings poop trifecta in the West.

5. Is It Time to Add Two More Title Contenders to the Official List?

It appears so. The Clippers have outscored opponents by 10.0 points per 100 possessions since the calendar flipped to 2014, by far the best mark in the league. Theyre up to 10th in points allowed per possession not amazing, but plenty good enough to contend for the title when paired with perhaps the leagues best offense.

The Clippers still suffer the occasionally fatal hiccup on defense, but they have shown gradual improvement in adopting Doc Riverss Thibodeau-style system almost from jump street. DeAndre Jordan still isnt quite there in terms of timing rotations, Blake Griffin is never going to be more than above average, and the team will have some perimeter matchup problems in the postseason if J.J. Redick cant return healthy. Any opponent with a strong wing player capable of posting up is going to cause problems for a smallish perimeter rotation of Chris Paul, Darren Collison, Jamal Crawford, Matt Barnes, and Jared Dudley. The biggest and toughest post defenders can still neuter some of Griffins game on the block.

But Glen Davis fills a huge hole, Griffin has been going supernova for two months, and the Clips are just very tough to stop.

Ditto for Houston, just one spot behind the Clips in the overall defense rankings, and with a similarly blazing offense. Houston appears to have settled on a rotation it likes. Patrick Beverley is entrenched as the lunatic defense-first starter; one of James Harden and Chandler Parsons will always be on the court with bench-heavy units; and Donatas Motiejunas has snatched the backup power forward spot, excising Omri Casspi from the rotation and rendering small ball a little-used change-of-pace tactic. And Omer Asik, trade bait all season, is still a valuable screener and defender who can take on more minutes if Howard gets into foul trouble as he did Sunday against Portland.

6. Remember the Spurs?

The fan base with the leagues biggest persecution complex can relax: We all see your team, and it may well finish the season as the overall championship favorites. Part of the reason the Spurs havent received as much attention as usual is because theyve barely been the Spurs. Almost every rotation player has missed significant time because of injury or a variety of maladies; the Spurs are one of just four teams without a lineup that has logged at least 200 minutes, and with three or fewer that have even cracked 100 minutes together, per NBA.com.

We just dont know this iteration of the Spurs Borg, which makes it even more ridiculous theyre atop the West at 46-16. Theyve lost the tiebreaker already with Oklahoma City, theyve split head-to-head with Miami, and theyre 0-1 against Indiana with one game remaining. Bottom line, the race for the leagues top overall seed is also going to be fun. San Antonio has struggled to score with the Tiago SplitterTim Duncan combination, a discouraging setback after Gregg Popovich spent years gradually building a functional offense around the teams best defensive front-line duo a process that finally came together last season.8

7. Whos Snagging the Final Playoff Spot in the West?

This deserves its own column, because Phoenix, Dallas, Memphis, and Golden State all have the potential to cause major problems in the playoffs if the matchups break right. Like, multiple rounds worth of problems. Phoenix has scuffled over the last two weeks, but its next 11 games come against either Eastern Conference teams or Western Conference lottery clubs. (Sorry, Minnesota fans.)

I am preemptively sad about saying a premature good-bye to one of these teams. Cant Adam Silver invoke some generic good of the game clause, trade one of these teams to the Eastern Conference for just one year, and slot them into the no. 8 spot? What if they agreed to give the no. 1 team in the East a 1-0 head start in its first-round series? Couldnt we at least give the Hawks Goran Dragic and the Phoenix Gorilla? The gorilla could spell Elton Brand after the poor guy had to log 35 minutes a night while Atlanta had only two healthy big men.

http://grantland.com/features/sprinting-to-the-finish-line/


and 10 things he likes and doesn't like:

1. Josh Smiths Shot Selection
2. Indiana, Tricking People
3. Pau Gasol's Defense
4. "Ill Will"
5. Untucked Jerseys
6. Wearing Neutral Jerseys To Games
7. The "Los" Jerseys
8. P.J. Tucker One-Handed Rebounds
9. The Ersan Ilyasova Pop-Out
10. Brandon Jennings' Pass Fake

He obviously goes into much greater detail on the seven questions and the ten things he likes and doesn't like, so click the link.

 

[josueelcatracho]

Great read on the Pacers.. My take,
 
Talks about many things.. One of them being IND.. Our defense has 
fallen off and he mentions Turner.. To a degree I agree with him, Us 
working him in to the phalanx has hurt us and the form has been shattered, Momentarily at least. Scolas finesse ways and recent struggle are not doing us any favor.. Psycho T while not nearly as skilled offensively, Would provide energy and crazy amount of second chances by grabbing boards. 

Working Turner in and along with injuries have certainly provided slippage.. Better now than the post season, We should be at 3Hunna once it rolls by.