Stanton vs Ohtani

[BrewCrewFan]

Which one would you rather your team get

Proven slugger or potential ace

 

[A.E]

Ohtani for the Yanks, easy

 

[Phil The Thrill]

Give me Stanton, the proven guy. People are hyped all the time before entering the league. What if Ohtani turns out to be meh. It wouldnt be the first time.

 

[catman]

Ohtani has not had an at bat in the majors, nor has he thrown a pitch in the majors yet.  Lets not put him in Stanton's category just yet.  Wait a couple of years and re-visit this topic.
As was said, Ohtani could end up being a flop and the team that signs him could lose a great deal of money.

 

[PWNdroia]

Stanton

 

[Giantmetfan07]

Ohtani, easily. He's in IFA cap, and most you would spend is the $20M fee to negotiate. Not a bad deal AT ALL. 
 
Definitely better than paying Stanton & giving up prospects for him. 

 

[Phil The Thrill]

But in a vacuum, who do you take?
 
The guy that is just been hyped in Japan and none of us have watched and truthfully don't know much about. Or Stanton who just posted 59 home runs this season with a 156 wRC+.

 

[A.E]

I’ll gamble Ohtani is more Ichiro than he is Kei Igawa. And I like Stanton but let’s not forget his 40-60 homers comes with 160 strikeouts per year. He’s a subpar defender and will only slow down as he begins to approach dirty 30. I’ve said a couple times that he’d be great for a team like Boston now, but he’s albatross in 2-3 seasons.

 

[Giantmetfan07]

But in a vacuum, who do you take?
 
The guy that is just been hyped in Japan and none of us have watched and truthfully don't know much about. Or Stanton who just posted 59 home runs this season with a 156 wRC+.

 
In a vacuum? That's not the discussion. It's who would I rather my team get. Stanton missed half of 2015, and about, what? 50 games in 2016? He had a monster year, no doubt, but he's still a career .270 hitter who's had injuries and is owed a lot of money, and it would take prospects to acquire him. 
 
I'd rather go with a low risk, high reward guy in Ohtani. He's on a cheap minor league deal and will be under arbitration in 2020. Yea, you spend $20M to negotiate - but you can figure that as $20M over 3 years. 
 
Let's assume a team gives him the max signing bonus, plus minimum $500k ish per year. We'll take that $20M posting fee and average it out over the length of his 3 years making the league minimum under a minor league contract. 
 
Roughly $8.33M per year (I don'tk now exactly what the league minimum is) for 3 years, then arbitration, 0 prospects lost. I take that in a heartbeat. It's less of a financial risk in case he were to get hurt, you retain your young assets, and you acquire a controllable player. 

 

[Giantmetfan07]

Shit, Asdrubal Cabrera made $8.25M this year. So yea, I'd much rather pay Ohtani than Stanton. 

 

[BrewCrewFan]

Wait you think he gets 500k per year?

 

[A.E]

 
In a vacuum? That's not the discussion. It's who would I rather my team get. Stanton missed half of 2015, and about, what? 50 games in 2016? He had a monster year, no doubt, but he's still a career .270 hitter who's had injuries and is owed a lot of money, and it would take prospects to acquire him. 
 
I'd rather go with a low risk, high reward guy in Ohtani. He's on a cheap minor league deal and will be under arbitration in 2020. Yea, you spend $20M to negotiate - but you can figure that as $20M over 3 years. 
 
Let's assume a team gives him the max signing bonus, plus minimum $500k ish per year. We'll take that $20M posting fee and average it out over the length of his 3 years making the league minimum under a minor league contract. 
 
Roughly $8.33M per year (I don'tk now exactly what the league minimum is) for 3 years, then arbitration, 0 prospects lost. I take that in a heartbeat. It's less of a financial risk in case he were to get hurt, you retain your young assets, and you acquire a controllable player. 

 
This is a good point. Ohtani costs money while Stanton costs money and a lot from the Farm in trade. Marlins are said to prefer St. Louis as trade partner because they like a lot of the Cards' better prospects.

 

[BrewCrewFan]

 
This is a good point. Ohtani costs money while Stanton costs money and a lot from the Farm in trade. Marlins are said to prefer St. Louis as trade partner because they like a lot of the Cards' better prospects.

Stanton is the proven player though who nearly had 3 seasons of 7 WAR in a pretty good pitchers park

 

[A.E]

Stanton is the proven player though who nearly had 3 seasons of 7 WAR in a pretty good pitchers park

 
Stanton is a double-edged sword. He's got 60-homer potential but can't play defense, has a history of lower body injuries, strikes out a lot, gets paid a lot, has a never-ending contract, and a full no trade clause.  Whichever team trades for him the offseason is married to him for at least the next 8 years.

 

[Phil The Thrill]

I guess it depends where your team is. The Sox's window is now and we aren't waiting a few years to find out what Ohtani can be. 
 
But as I've been saying, we've seen it time and time again. Prospects get hyped and then turn out to be the definition of average. Anyone remember Daisuke Matsuzaka? Who's to say Ohtani doesn't end up like Daisuke. Ohtani is just the shiny new toy syndrome for now, until he proves something.

 

[Giantmetfan07]

Yea I mean - if your team is that close, like the Yankees, Stanton makes sense. Most team's don't want to pay a guy $25m+ until he's 37 or 38 or whatever.

 

[A.E]

But as I've been saying, we've seen it time and time again. Prospects get hyped and then turn out to be the definition of average. Anyone remember Daisuke Matsuzaka? Who's to say Ohtani doesn't end up like Daisuke. Ohtani is just the shiny new toy syndrome for now, until he proves something.

We’ve also seen a ton of big name players completely flop after changing teams

 

[Phil The Thrill]

Fair, but who is still the more proven commodity. If you're a contender, I don't get how you can take Otani over Stanton. Even if his defense sucks, you can still DH him if you're an AL team. He'd rake in Boston or NY.

 

[Phil The Thrill]

Also, for the record both DRS and UZR were fans of Stanton this season and historically have been.

 

[bosoxlover12]

dont be talking shit about dice-k, tommy boy lol. he was a baller in 08