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Just calculated the numbers, and the Colts have a 3.125% chance of winning their division. Texans have to lose out, and the Titans to lose @JAC in Week 16, as well as Indy winning out. That is the only scenario the Colts have of winning their division.
The Texans have the easiest path, with a 62.5% chance of winning the division, and the Titans second at a 34.375% chance.
The Texans have the easiest path, with a 62.5% chance of winning the division, and the Titans second at a 34.375% chance.