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From:RealGm.com
Jeff Risdon/RealGM -
This is still just an exercise in pure speculation, though this time around I tried to place myself in the GM chair more than the previous version.
Many underclassmen are included here, and there exists a good chance that at least some of them will not declare early even with the potential for a rookie wage scale. I take the approach that if I include one, I might as well include them all. The agents have a very powerful sales tool to entice early declarations this year, with the (hopefully) impending new CBA.
The draft order is based on my projected final finishing order after seven weeks of the NFL season. No doubt there will be some swings there, so don’t be offended if I have your beloved team eight spots higher than where they will finish. These are for fun and to give you a general idea of the range that a particular player will be drafted, based on my talks with scouts, front office personnel, some agents and my own opinions.
Round 1
1. St. Louis Rams: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Marc Bulger’s successor has vastly improved under Coach Steve Sarkisian, and his experience of playing for a bad college team is a desirable attribute for a Rams team that doesn’t figure to be in for a quick fix. His mobility, leadership, and attitude will go a long way in that locker room.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
The giant has the agility and athleticism to play anywhere on the DL and make a huge impact. The Bucs are in the painful process of overhauling the entire defensive roster and badly need a building block up front.
3. Tennessee Titans: Jimmy Claussen, QB, Notre Dame
I’m not convinced Claussen is going to leave, but if he does he will be hard for the Titans to overlook. Tennessee needs a commanding young presence at QB that can ease the burden off the running game.
4. Cleveland Browns: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
What, no QB? Given their experiences with prominent QBs with balky shoulders (Chad Pennington, Kyle Boller), I have a real hard time seeing Eric Mangini and George Kokinis taking a chance on Sam Bradford here. Berry is a dynamic playmaker that can tackle and create turnovers, something the Browns arguably need worse than a QB anyways. This being Mangini, expect them to trade down and take a WR in the 20s if this were reality.
5. Kansas City Chiefs: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
In order to justify their asinine investment in Matt Cassel, Scot Pioli and the Chiefs decide the best way to do that is by giving him better weapons. Bryant compares to Calvin Johnson and could form a lethal 1-2 punch with Dwayne Bowe and just might wind up grading out higher than any other player in this draft.
6. Detroit Lions: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
His stock is slipping a little, but McCoy is a proven disruptive force on the DL, which is precisely what the doctor ordered in Detroit. His quickness and ability to shed blocks give McCoy a chance to be special.
7. Oakland Raiders: Russell Okung, T, Oklahoma State
He fits the Al Davis draftee profile--big, fast, strong, not as skilled as some would like but with potential to be dominant. You can bet a coach like Tom Cable, an OL coach at heart, will lobby for this pick.
8. Washington Redskins: Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
Whoever the new coach might be will want a clean slate and a QB to build around. McCoy has the athleticism, pluck, and accuracy to make it in the mold of Jeff Garcia, a guy who is a winner as much as he’s a good QB. They sorely need that in DC.
9. San Francisco 49ers (from CAR): Taylor Mays, S, USC
An athletic monster with questionable football IQ, Mays is an intimidating presence that Coach Singletary can put to good use. This is the pick the Panthers gave up to draft Everette Brown; think they want it back?
10. Seattle Seahawks: Trent Williams, T, Oklahoma
This is probably too high for Williams, who best projects as a RT in the NFL. He could be a very good one, however, and the Seahawks need brand new bookends and must take the chance here.
11. Buffalo Bills: Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
The heart, soul, and sledgehammer of the best college defense, McClain reminds some of Ray Lewis coming out of Miami. Big, quick, and fearless, McClain brings an added dimension to the Buffalo defense. His durability is a plus for a team that has lost more than 50 starts to LBs over the last two seasons by the end of 2009.
12. Miami Dolphins: Mike Williams, WR, Syracuse
Williams is flying up draft boards and impressing scouts with his blend of size, speed, and hands. The Dolphins need to get more Chad Henne-friendly wideouts, and Williams fits the bill.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Forget whatever the Jaguars might need more, because this pick is more about the financial viability of keeping the franchise in northern Florida. Tebow is a local icon, aside from being a unique talent. How well that translates to NFL success is a nasty debate.
14. New York Jets: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
The replacement for el busto Vernon Gholston is a player with an eerie resemblance to him coming out of Ohio State. Dunlap is more physical specimen than polished product, but he’s shown enough to merit 1st round risk.
15. San Francisco 49ers: C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
A versatile speedster in the mold of Chris Johnson, the lightning-fast Spiller provides excellent insurance against Frank Gore’s chronic injury woes. Put them together and the offense gets a whole new--and much-needed--dynamic.
16. Denver Broncos (from CHI): Arthur Jones, DT, Syracuse
Jones bears a strong stylistic and physical similarity to 2009 1st rounder Ziggy Hood, who transitioned to 3-4 DE, which is what Jones will do in Denver. That Broncos defense has been amazingly effective thus far, but it’s not a young group.
17. Baltimore Ravens: Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Haden isn’t the biggest corner in the class, but he’s a proven run stuffer that doesn’t back down from anyone. The Ravens need more skilled youth on defense, and Haden’s loose hips are highly desirable. No, that’s not a gay slur...
18. San Diego Chargers: Charles Brown, T, USC
He’s not a mauler, but he’s got the footwork and technique to keep Philip Rivers upright and comfortable.
19. Houston Texans: Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech
The short-yardage and red zone woes scream out for a between-the-tackles pounder with some shiftiness. That describes Dwyer to a “T”, and he can pair with Steve Slaton to make a nice 1-2 punch.
20. Atlanta Falcons: Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU
With the WR spots beyond Roddy White solid but unspectacular, the Falcons keep Matt Ryan happy with the playmaking LaFell. He reminds me a great deal of Roy Williams when he came out of Texas.
21. Dallas Cowboys: Mike Iupati, G, Idaho
This isn’t the sexy pick most Cowboys fans will want, but one long-time scout tells me Iupati is the best G prospect since Alan Faneca. That will cure a whole lot of what ails the inconsistent Dallas offense.
22. Green Bay Packers: Selvish Capers, T, West Virginia
Bears a strong stylistic resemblance to Joe Staley, another converted TE that morphed into a pretty good left tackle. The Cheeseheads might rain Velveeta on GM Ted Thompson if he doesn’t address the God-awful OL with this pick.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona
He’s missed 2009 with injury and that always poses concern, but his all-around skills are worthy of a 1st round risk to a team with patience and no immediate need. Sound like the Eagles...?
24. Arizona Cardinals: Terrence Cody, NT, Alabama
The Cards have spent a lot of picks on behemoths to try and anchor the middle, with little success. Cody is cat-quick for being a buffet table away from 380 pounds, and has Shaun Rogers-like potential...and similar drawbacks.
25. Cincinnati Bengals: Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan
The Bengals defense is quickly improving but needs more depth and beef on the corners. Graham is very strong for his size and knows how to finish plays.
26. Seattle Seahawks (from DEN): Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
The shoulder injuries make Bradford quite similar to Chad Pennington--a hyper-accurate QB with arm strength and durability issues. When Chad has been healthy his teams consistently win a lot, and Bradford has every chance to achieve that as well. Matt Hasselbeck’s own durability questions make drafting a QB a priority, as Seneca Wallace is a good backup, nothing more.
27. Minnesota Vikings: Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri
A rangy thumper who has improved at his deficiencies after somewhat surprisingly returning for his senior season, he fits well with what the Vikings ask of their LBs. Humble early prediction: this pick is traded to the Cleveland Browns for Brady Quinn and one of Cleveland’s 10 later picks. You read it here first!
28. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
His injury knocks down his status from top 10-worthy, but if he checks out medically before the draft this is his absolute floor. Pittsburgh has had some success in drafting for what they’ll need 2 years from now, and with Heath Miller in place they can wait for Gresham without pushing him.
29. New York Giants: Greg Hardy, DE, Ole Miss
He runs hot and cold, but Hardy has flashed some capability of translating his great length and power into being a pretty effective pass rusher. GM Jerry Reese loves value picks, and Hardy could be a top-10 talent.
30. New England Patriots: Charles Scott, RB, LSU
Scott is exactly what the Patriots need for their offense--a between-the-tackles pounder with enough slipperiness to break it outside. He reminds some scouts of Michael Turner.
31. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Davis, T, Rutgers
Davis hasn’t dominated as expected, but the junior has more than held his own on the left side. He has the athleticism and intelligence to handle the Colts’ demanding blocking schemes.
32. New Orleans Saints: Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida
An extremely instinctive backer with good, not great, range and tackling skills, Spikes is the sort of solid, tough linebacker the Saints need to keep improving their defense.
Round 2
33. St. Louis Rams: Bryan Bulaga, T, Iowa.
34. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois
35. New England Patriots (from TEN): Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
36. Cleveland Browns: Greg Jones, LB, Michigan State
37. Kansas City Chiefs: Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas
38. Detroit Lions: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
39. Oakland Raiders: Syd’Quan Thompson, CB, California
40. Washington Redskins: Jahvid Best, RB, California
41. Carolina Panthers: Tony Pike, QB, Cincinnati
42. Seattle Seahawks: Darrell Stuckey, S, Kansas
43. Buffalo Bills: Jason Fox, T, Miami FL
44. Miami Dolphins: Bruce Carter, LB, North Carolina
45. New England Patriots (from JAX): Eric Decker, WR, Minnesota
46. Philadelphia Eagles (from NYJ)*: Corey Wootton, DE, Northwestern
*-this pick is contingent upon Lito Sheppard’s playing time, and he is on pace to hit the requirement that shifts the pick to the Eagles. If he doesn’t make the benchmark, this pick stays with the Jets and the traded pick becomes New York’s 4th rounder.
47. San Francisco 49ers: George Selvie, OLB, South Florida
48. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from CHI): Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State
49. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Shipley, WR/PR, Texas
50. San Diego Chargers: Ricky Sapp, OLB, Clemson
51. Houston Texans: Brandon Ghee, CB, Wake Forest
52. Kansas City Chiefs (from ATL): Eversen Griffen, DE/OLB, USC
53. Dallas Cowboys: Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
54. Green Bay Packers: Nate Allen, S, South Florida
55. Philadelphia Eagles: Anthony McCoy, TE, USC
56. Arizona Cardinals: Bruce Campbell, T, Maryland
57. Cincinnati Bengals: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
58. Denver Broncos: Chad Jones, S, LSU
59. Minnesota Vikings: D’Anthony Smith, DT, Louisiana Tech
60. Pittsburgh Steelers: Noel Devine, RB, West Virginia
61. New York Giants: Morgan Burnett, S, Georgia Tech
62. New England Patriots: Kris O’Dowd, C, USC
63. Indianapolis Colts: Ed Dickson, TE, Oregon
64. New Orleans Saints: Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State
