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Bozo The Clown
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Hello, welcome to article #2 of an unknown amount in everyone's favorite fundraising series on SI. This article will touch on which teams are best aligned for future success - there's no specific year I'm looking at here, but these rankings don't take achievements from the 2019-2020 season into account.
The general idea I'm focusing on here is which rosters will have the best chance at being really good down the road. The general order of importance for me on these rankings is as follows:
1. Does this team have a building block with All-NBA potential?
2. Does this team have a clear path to getting future building blocks (through trades/drafts/free agency)?
3. Does this team have any crippling debt (horrible contracts, cut salaries or negative GM cash balance) that will cost them assets?
These rankings don't reflect a GM's reputation or ability to pull insane trades out of their ass, so I fully expect some teams that rank poorly here to still find a way to be relevant long term. Think of this list as the rankings for which teams would be the easiest to completely reshape and turn into a 2022 Champion or something along those lines. Considering this list is being released prior to free agency, I'll do my best to balance cap space with expectations. There's no guarantee a team like Chicago lands anyone, but they definitely get some credit for having cap flexibility.
Without further ado...
#30
Have you seen their roster lately?! Neither have I.
#29
Not that I'm afraid to stir the shit, but this article probably seems tailor made for someone that just converted their whole roster to young players with potential. Feel free to boost my ego or destroy my confidence and rank me where you'd like in the comments - I'd like to think I'm deserving of at least one spot higher here but it's also possible TC just murders everyone and my roster has 0 stars on it. At least it will be interesting!
#28
Portland isn't a team that I particularly worry about too much, but this is a team that has zero building blocks beyond Sabonis and DiVincenzo, the latter being someone who I wouldn't count on ever being more than a bench guard. That said, all hope is not lost. This team has some good win-now pieces, notably inside. Bogdan has quietly proven to be very solid, but he's deceptively old for his experience level. There's no clear upside here, but this team has $35M in cap space and everyone outside of Bogdanovic coming off the books next summer. I wouldn't panic here, but my oh my is this an unfortunate time to have your 2021 1st round pick missing.
#27
Another team I'm not worried about (in part because both of these guys are in the West, which makes things slightly easier when it comes time to contend for a playoff spot), Minnesota has a lot of underrated guys that are either in their prime or already past their best. As Malik Monk believer #1 in the league, I'd say he/Shamet/Jabari Parker make up a decent group to build with but these clearly aren't top talents. Minnesota has some value on their roster if they chose to flip these guys, and also some cap clearing on the horizon. This roster doesn't have a ton of huge assets though (possibly a result of accepting a challenge from CC to clean house a few seasons ago) so it'll take some GM work to get to the upper half of the league long term.
#26
There seems to be somewhat of an unsurprising trend here - some of the most successful win-now teams of recent memory aren't exactly stacked with youth. New York's standing on this list could move dramatically if they retain one (or both) of their star free agents, but this is a cruel list and we're basing things off of where they are now. Imagine a world where you're stuck with Draymond's contract, you don't own your 2021 first round pick, you're short of max cap space for the foreseeable future, and your best asset is Jrue Holiday. In the East. Things could be much worse, but if the worst case scenario comes to life for NY, Dez will have to choose between pushing for a low playoff seeding led by defense and solid role players. The future is cloudy at the moment.
#25
This will read a lot like NY's summary, but instead of free agency concerns we have ourselves a roster that's absolutely stacked on top tier talent. The issue is that talent is squeezed into just 3 players, including 2 expirings (including their most valuable piece, Kevin Durant). The other piece is Kyle Lowry, who has played very well but is owed somewhere in the region of $2B per season for the next 3 years. They have one player under the age of 31 right now (19 year old Luka Semanic - who I'm actually very high on for a second rounder) so prepare yourselves for a title run followed by some major decisions. Even if they can bring back their aging stars, how good could a team be in 3 years when it's paying ~$140M (really) to two 35 year olds and a 33 year old? That's essentially being hard capped with a minimum of 9 roster spots needing to be filled. Snipezo will find a way to manage this, but it's all or nothing this season and it shows as we look forward.
#24
Retirement home #1 has become retirement home #2 as Andre Drummond and two questionable first round picks have joined the roster. Toronto holds that crown now, but Phoenix is in a similar place. They've got less overall roster value by my estimations (Kevin Durant is a supremely valued piece even as an expiring player at 31) but there is still a lot of talent that can be shuffled around to keep the window open (or at least cracked) for contention. There are enough staggered contracts ending at the right time to where it doesn't seem unreasonable the Suns could move their future expirings next offseason in an effort to reload with a younger group. I'm definitely not jumping to pre-order any Suns 2022 merch, but the relatively clean payroll will be easy to maneuver in a direction they feel comfortable with when the time comes.
#23
While the point of this article is simply to rate rosters as they are, I think it's worth pointing out that a team like Utah (who has been committed to trading away any and all draft capital in a search for players like Jeremy Lin) has shown that there are expensive paths to relevancy. You could argue last season's squad wasn't really even relevant, but they've flipped their big name talent (with modest production) to assemble a big three that would have been amazing 5 years ago. I think CP3 and LeBron can still put up numbers, and Millsap should be a good scorer as a third wheel if nothing else. That said, it's clear this team made these moves of shipping away youth, cost-controlled talent and picks for aging stars to go all in this season. Given they're highly unlikely to then flip one of these guys for future assets, the reality of these contracts and ages will set in after the season ends. There's nothing to be excited about here, and with their picks gone for the next two years, they'd better hope things work out for at least that long. Will anyone take these guys when they're all 36 and making a combined $100M? It seems like Utah is locked in to this group for three years, which might pay off now but certainly limits their ceiling long term.
#22
Detroit has some fantastic cornerstones at PG and C for the next few years, but they have a similar problem to Utah. It's all in right now, worry about the problems later. I have more confidence in Detroit long term (despite them also missing their next two first rounders) because it seems a lot easier to move someone like Ibaka or Jennings at age 30-32, although Ibaka's All-NBA level play will eventually diminish and his salary might become a bit of a problem in trade negotiations. At least the current timeline looks okay for Detroit, but if they miss on free agents they could be a candidate for the annual "we're a really good team but only 9th in the East" award.
#21
Milwaukee finds themselves towards the late-middle portion of this list because they have essentially nothing worth talking about outside of Kevin Love. Sure, D'Angelo Russell is an RFA and still under their control, but do you really match a max offer on a guy that doesn't fit your system if it comes through? Is 9 points per game worth a max? Can you even let him go since your next most valuable piece is uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh (don't worry I won't say Tacko Fall) Goran Dragic? I question how much value DLo would have to the rest of the league if he gets a max (it's tradition for people to overpay RFAs so expect it). I don't want to roast Milwaukee though, they've got a team that should be competitive again and they're showing us all how to maximize one star player. Eventually Milwaukee may want to move Love to assemble some hope for the long haul though. He's expiring next year... look for him to be the premium piece on the market next offseason.
#20
Dallas has a clean financial situation to start, but they also have some sneaky nice prospects in Bridges, Claxton and King. Kuzma is doodoo. These aren't stars, but they're all guys that I could see being rotation pieces on a playoff squad. The real value here is the potential for the commish to change everyone's ratings and make his roster amazing. Just kidding, the real value is the ability to move Rose/Lin/Gasol/Leonard for some assets to help things along as we move forward. It's nothing amazing looking ahead 5 years, but it's a roster that has no issues to deal with either.
#19
Houston retained their best player (DeRozan, whose contract may someday offset his value to a point of moving him), added a legit star PG (Mike Conley, who is also coming off the books and might be a prime S&T guy next offseason) and flipped some other pieces for youth in Jaylen Brown and Pascal Siakam. They also have Bam Adebayo for the long haul, and players like Ed Davis are always valued around the league if they hit the market. Houston's definitely built more for the present than the future, but they've got a mix of pieces that keep things flexible. Lacking picks for the next two seasons is a bit concerning, but only the 2021 picks have a shot at being relatively valuable.
#18
Chicago is a weird one to rank. Their best asset right now is Trae Young, but their second best asset is either A) they have no other assets but do have their picks, or B) their cap space. Gary Harris has a very affordable contract and seems like the perfect player to move if Chicago commits to the tank, while Clarke and Washington form an intriguing rookie PF duo with a reasonably high ceiling. They also own 3 first round picks in 2021, which could pay off handsomely. I might be ranking this team a little low for where they'll be in 24 hours, but right now I can't consider cap space to be such an amazing asset that they command a higher ranking. This team would be a dream to take over though, considering there's a premium building block and no headaches whatsoever to clean up.
#17
Atlanta is also tough for me to rank, because I feel they raised their long term ceiling on paper by moving Bron for some younger pieces with reasonable contracts. I can't help but think name value played a huge part in this deal though, because none of the pieces they got are things I'd consider to be a good value for a player with the ratings of LBJ. I'm a bit biased here and also probably can't be critical since I also traded LeBron for much less than he probably could have been worth, but regardless I can't help but think Atlanta could have received a better offer if they shopped him a little longer. Atlanta's got a solid path to staying relevant for a long time though, and a skilled player like Steph Curry should age just fine. His value will be sky high whenever he hits the trade market, meaning that Atlanta will always have a fallback option to push their future up a few notches in one deal. One last thing to note - Romeo Langford may have the highest ceiling of everyone Atlanta received in that deal. Whether that's a red flag regarding the deal or a sneaky steal is up to you.
#16
Sacramento has masterfully found high level players on affordable contracts, which really raise their long term ceiling in my book. The difference between paying $27M or less for your three stars compared to the ~$33M per player that a team like Toronto is paying will always be felt when it comes time to sign depth in free agency. Sacramento has cap space (not a lot, but enough to add one or two steals before using MLE/LLE/birds). This can't be understated for both the short term and long term, as it points to both their ability to keep everyone together and also move these players much easier than someone that ends a contract at $45M+ per year. They did move Knox and Bryant along with picks in the offseason, but adding another star didn't really change their overall roster value should they choose to retool down the line.
#15
Charlotte is tough to measure for future rankings - they added a superstar who's also expiring, and moved a significant part of their young core to add him. That said, they kept their crown jewel Deandre Ayton, and they still have a few really solid younger pieces in Brandon Ingram and Terrence Ross. This team has cap flexibility, the ability to move Russ for assets if the project doesn't work, and most importantly (and the thing that separates most of these teams in the top half from the bottom half) they have a legitimate building block for the future. As long as they're decent this year, losing their 2020 first round pick won't be anything major for them. They still have their 2021 in case Russ leaves, which wouldn't be ideal but it's a solid safety net that limits this group's future floor from dropping too low.
#14
Let's just be clear - this core (even without any depth prior to free agency) is my pick to win the title if they hold it together one more year. The efficiency and fit of these guys is unmatched, especially now that Cleveland is on a new trajectory. James Harden may have quietly become the league's best piece, potentially surpassing Kyrie (it's an argument I'd even make, although the ring count tells a different story). Basically I'm saying there's a ton of current value in this roster, and even if the aging stars don't get swapped for youth they'll still have James Harden around in his prime for a few more years. Klay is the only flight risk this offseason (apart from JaVale McGee, who might be on the decline already... $25M in cap space isn't the worst outcome if he isn't traded), so there's plenty of time for Indiana to see how things go this year. Their ceiling down the road will definitely be highest if they sell some older pieces before they lose a ton of value, but I think it's such a clear path to being a top 5 team once again that you might as well just keep it rolling and deal with a rebuild later.
#13
Cleveland is similar to Indiana, but they get the edge in these rankings due in part to the age difference between Kyrie and Harden. Adding DeAndre Hunter and some extra picks is a nice move for their future, and the clean cap space will pay big dividends at some point. FBB loves a high win rating in free agency as well, so keep an eye on that when they do get a GM that's aggressive to get them back into the finals. There's not a ton that needs to be said here - if you have prime Kyrie and clean cap, your window is wide open. There's only one scenario where they stumble, and that's if he leaves in free agency leaving them in a full on rebuild (which still would put them somewhere in the teens in this list since they'd become the favorite for some #1 picks).
#12
Denver could fluctuate a lot in these rankings depending on where your level of belief in Ja Morant is placed. I also have some questions about how wise it is to spend the majority of your cap space on a trio of Melo/Julius Randle/Derrick Favors, but in 2-3 years I'm not convinced those guys will be part of the Nuggets' story anyway. They bought low on these guys and didn't destroy and youth for them, so for the time being I'm a bit split on them. I think Ja's upside is as high as a top 3 PG in the league at some point, but for the time being I'm not ranking them as if that's a done deal. As long as he becomes a clear starter and borderline top 10 PG, I think Denver deserves this 12th spot.
#11
Miami also has a chance to really drop in these rankings, but could also significantly rise in the next year or two. Beyond their clean cap (outside of THJ, who isn't a cancer but also isn't much of an asset at that price in my opinion) they're pretty stacked with good, young talent that will be affordable and in their prime years from now. They've already got a decently established big man core with an average age under 23, and added some under-the-radar rookie wings that have some solid upside as good role players (or in Thybulle's case, solid non-option starter). Buddy Hield will have to prove he's worth a new contract as an option in an outside offense, but the pieces and fit are there for a solid young core that can stay together without any issues.
#10
I'm trying to put bias aside here, but I think Marvin Bagley is one of the best young pieces in the league. That's coming from someone that doesn't typically like a scoring big man, but Bagley is efficient already and has some upside as a defender and rebounder. He's potentially a guy that can get you 20 and 10 as a non-option down the road someday, which is insanely valuable in the right system. He's still got 3 more years of a rookie contract, and the Spurs also have youngsters next to him that have a consistent fit with Ben Simmons and Zach Collins. They're going to have to pay these guys eventually (and whoever they draft this season) but they have $50M+ coming off the books this year. This team would have been a lot higher if they had their first rounder in 2019 that ended up being Zion, but they're still in good shape moving forward.
#9
It feels a little weird to say this (only because their GM seems more focused on terrible memes than the league), but the Clippers really have been doing great things with their roster in every department. Devin Booker is plenty young to be your guy for another 5+ years, and the supporting cast of Collins/Hayes/Smith and maybe even Dinwiddie/Hands/Reid is a group that should be retainable and competitive while leaving room for a vet or two. There's also a decent amount of win-now talent in this group that can eventually be swapped out to keep pushing for playoff spots for years to come, and their draft pick situation is completely healthy. Well done Mexi, even camping Brook Lopez's three ball worked out to a degree.
#8
This is a situation with a mix of quality and quantity of young players that might be the best model of consistency in the league as well. Philadelphia has had a young core that's anchored defensively by Rudy Gobert, and offensively by Zach LaVine for three years now. They've been able to add some young pieces in their many trades, which are currently headlined by solid prospects Troy Brown and Robert Williams. They've also been fantastic at developing 2nd round talent, so don't sleep on guys like Isaac Bonga or Dewan Hernandez. While I'm not so sure that LaVine or Tobias Harris are definitive max-level players, they're more than competent starters who fit the scoring roles that fit the rest of the roster cleanly. Maximizing young talent is very important in these rankings, and Philly seems aligned to be in a position to keep doing this long term while adding other pieces.
#7
This may be the most controversial ranking in the list. I can absolutely understand if people doubt Markelle Fultz's development, but there are no yips in FBB. Just bad TCs. So far, Markelle has had one solid TC (+1 I think?) and one amazing TC (either +4 or +5 if I remember correctly). Factoring in his draft position, that's insanely good. This ranking depends on his development continuing at a reasonably good level for a bit, but if he can become a threat to be a 20-8-6 type PG with average efficiency, this is a steal for a team that's in good shape at SG with Victor Oladipo. We're about to find out this year if he's fool's gold or a true star, and again I'm betting on the Wizards coming up in the W column on this. I do have concerns about Lance Stephenson's contract, but he's a stud (at least for now) so at worst he can be moved for cap relief if Washington stumbles and wants to tank this season away before 2021 begins without owning a first rounder. Grant/Kurucs/Konate/Fernando might not be a starting quartet, but they should all have a chance to be cheap contributors that could potentially grow to a point of having legitimate value in future deals.
#6
This could also be considered quite high for a team that owes ancient/underwhelming role players a ton of money, but despite the Amar'e and Rubio contracts I'm still high on this core's future. CJ McCollum and Dennis Smith Jr. are due for a breakout, and despite Joel Embiid's return to his league-leading turnover numbers I think he's also got a lot of room to grow still. Miles Bridges might be the best sleeper pick for most improved player of the year if he's allowed to start, and Michael Porter Jr. possess superstar potential (even if it's somewhat of a longshot). The diversity of star potential really pushes this team ahead of some others behind them on the list, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about the Rubio and Stoudemire contracts limiting their upside. If they can be moved without losing much before it's too late, OKC will be clearly positioned for a spot as high as this ranking suggests.
#5
The Lakers have put together multiple drafts of taking multiple picks, and when you focus on the best player available like they have, your long term ceiling will typically be raised. If for no other reason than trade value, this is the strategy that helps you build something special long term. It's the Seattle Supersonics/OKC Thunder approach that leads to multiple cheap stars on the same roster all at once, and it's what allows a team like LA to trade for a max star in Nikola Jokic as well. I question the fit and value of the Joker, but there's very promising young depth at every position here with no cap issues after this season ($35M in dead money from cut salaries hurts, but not that much). I'm not sure there's a superstar on this roster right now, but there might be as many as four or five lower level stars. If you can assemble that many good players without having to pay into the hard cap, you're doing it right.
#4
I may be higher on Luka Doncic than most in this league following an okay-but-not-amazing rookie season, but I think he's one of the top few young players in the league to watch for. He has potential to be the league's top offensive player, and his talents are so complete and well-rounded he could do it at any of the three perimeter positions. Beyond this, Golden State has their picks and a clean cap (apart from Andrew Bynum's two year deal, but I think they're very likely to be able to find him a home after free agency should they choose to tank) as well as a nice group of supporting pieces next to Luka. Don't sleep on the versatile Jarrett Culver either, who like Luka (and Caris LeVert) can play a multitude of roles and positions. Some of the other projects on the roster (Isaac/Doumbouya/Simons/Lecque) are also players filled with potential, but have some questions regarding their best fit. I'm not sure any of those last four guys have a clear position or role, but that's not necessarily a bad thing when it comes time to trade them to fill out your roster's holes.
#3
There have been no shortage of jokes about Memphis' commitment to drafting shot blocking big men with very high picks, but the strategy has proven to be pretty successful. Jarrett Allen has looked like a top 5 or 10 center on both ends of the court since his first game, which is a huge part of why Memphis finds itself here. It's a bit absurd that I'm viewing Jarrett Allen as a better piece than Ayton/Bagley/Embiid/Jokic/Towns, but here we are. A huge part of this also relates to his contract - Memphis HAS to capitalize on the fact that their whole roster is due for paychecks but haven't reached free agency yet. Jae Crowder is expiring, and Joakim Noah/Cody Zeller are good players that can probably be moved after free agency. If those players can be moved and Memphis spends all of their newfound cap space in next season's free agency, they should be able to stay under the hard cap after paying guys like Allen and Jackson/Schroder to return. The upside of Bamba/Sexton/White/Walker/Hachimura/Bol is very exciting for a team that has always been a defensive juggernaut, but hasn't always had an identity on offense. This young group is all 3+ years from getting paid, so if they time it right they should be one of the favorites for a title in the next few years.
#2
As we get very close to #1, let me say that the top 4 in this list are all very close to me. We're at a point where a team's ceiling can only be raised by a superstar, and I think Orlando has multiple future superstars on their roster right now while Memphis may not have any (but they certainly will have well over 5 very good players) and Golden State has some mild changes to sort out next to Luka. Damian Lillard is already a star, and in my unbiased opinion (really, he's not on my team anymore so I don't have a horse in this race anymore) he's a superstar. I'd still take Harden or Kyrie over him, but I think Dame will be a 30-10-6-2 PG this season if he's the first option next to Jamal Murray (future star) and Jayson Tatum (future star). Add in the fact that they've also got Wendell Carter Jr. (future star) and Thomas Bryant (fantastic cheap, young big man), as well as a bench unit featuring some promising rookies and Malcolm Brogdon, and you've got yourself a roster with tons of flexibility and upside. They even have 5 first round picks in the next 3 drafts, so there's plenty of added value that can be added to the roster at no loss (or added to a blockbuster trade, which is what I'd predict happens eventually). This team might start winning 50+ games as soon as this season, but I think their peak will be firmly rooted 2-5 seasons from now.
#1
Really! The league's most forgettable, boring franchise has an active GM, a face to headline the roster, and they even added a bonafide 2x champion and former All-NBA 1st Team member that also fits their title window. Don't get me wrong, this team might be bad this season. Lonzo Ball has upside but many questions, especially in an outside offense. Bradley Beal will be a stud for them in any system, but if the offense is catered to inside for both Zion (we'll get to him in a second) and Lonzo, you're kind of wasting his talents. There's also Jaren Jackson Jr., who might fit in an inside system equally as well as he'd fit in an outside system. Will he ever rebound though? This roster is very weird at the moment, but it has a lot of valuable pieces (including 5 first rounders in the next 3 years) and most importantly the cornerstone of all cornerstones. Zion Williamson will be a problem for the rest of the league to figure out. He's an atypical player, but Brooklyn has a season or two to figure out where he fits best, and which other pieces on the roster need to be replaced to maximize him. This is the perfect situation for a player like Zion, who'd potentially get lost on another team if he gets pigeonholed to a single position or role early and never finds his best environment. Brooklyn also has a pristine cap situation going forward, and their current roster is free of any bad deals. As long as they're patient and don't go all in right away for no reason, this team should be very scary long term. One last prediction on this team - Lonzo Ball's 19/244 shooting performance on 3 pointers last season might wear Larry's patience thin, but that's perfect for tanking with. If he decides to switch it up, watch for PG Bradley Beal to make a serious MVP push.
The general idea I'm focusing on here is which rosters will have the best chance at being really good down the road. The general order of importance for me on these rankings is as follows:
1. Does this team have a building block with All-NBA potential?
2. Does this team have a clear path to getting future building blocks (through trades/drafts/free agency)?
3. Does this team have any crippling debt (horrible contracts, cut salaries or negative GM cash balance) that will cost them assets?
These rankings don't reflect a GM's reputation or ability to pull insane trades out of their ass, so I fully expect some teams that rank poorly here to still find a way to be relevant long term. Think of this list as the rankings for which teams would be the easiest to completely reshape and turn into a 2022 Champion or something along those lines. Considering this list is being released prior to free agency, I'll do my best to balance cap space with expectations. There's no guarantee a team like Chicago lands anyone, but they definitely get some credit for having cap flexibility.
Without further ado...
#30
Have you seen their roster lately?! Neither have I.
#29
Not that I'm afraid to stir the shit, but this article probably seems tailor made for someone that just converted their whole roster to young players with potential. Feel free to boost my ego or destroy my confidence and rank me where you'd like in the comments - I'd like to think I'm deserving of at least one spot higher here but it's also possible TC just murders everyone and my roster has 0 stars on it. At least it will be interesting!
#28
Portland isn't a team that I particularly worry about too much, but this is a team that has zero building blocks beyond Sabonis and DiVincenzo, the latter being someone who I wouldn't count on ever being more than a bench guard. That said, all hope is not lost. This team has some good win-now pieces, notably inside. Bogdan has quietly proven to be very solid, but he's deceptively old for his experience level. There's no clear upside here, but this team has $35M in cap space and everyone outside of Bogdanovic coming off the books next summer. I wouldn't panic here, but my oh my is this an unfortunate time to have your 2021 1st round pick missing.
#27
Another team I'm not worried about (in part because both of these guys are in the West, which makes things slightly easier when it comes time to contend for a playoff spot), Minnesota has a lot of underrated guys that are either in their prime or already past their best. As Malik Monk believer #1 in the league, I'd say he/Shamet/Jabari Parker make up a decent group to build with but these clearly aren't top talents. Minnesota has some value on their roster if they chose to flip these guys, and also some cap clearing on the horizon. This roster doesn't have a ton of huge assets though (possibly a result of accepting a challenge from CC to clean house a few seasons ago) so it'll take some GM work to get to the upper half of the league long term.
#26
There seems to be somewhat of an unsurprising trend here - some of the most successful win-now teams of recent memory aren't exactly stacked with youth. New York's standing on this list could move dramatically if they retain one (or both) of their star free agents, but this is a cruel list and we're basing things off of where they are now. Imagine a world where you're stuck with Draymond's contract, you don't own your 2021 first round pick, you're short of max cap space for the foreseeable future, and your best asset is Jrue Holiday. In the East. Things could be much worse, but if the worst case scenario comes to life for NY, Dez will have to choose between pushing for a low playoff seeding led by defense and solid role players. The future is cloudy at the moment.
#25
This will read a lot like NY's summary, but instead of free agency concerns we have ourselves a roster that's absolutely stacked on top tier talent. The issue is that talent is squeezed into just 3 players, including 2 expirings (including their most valuable piece, Kevin Durant). The other piece is Kyle Lowry, who has played very well but is owed somewhere in the region of $2B per season for the next 3 years. They have one player under the age of 31 right now (19 year old Luka Semanic - who I'm actually very high on for a second rounder) so prepare yourselves for a title run followed by some major decisions. Even if they can bring back their aging stars, how good could a team be in 3 years when it's paying ~$140M (really) to two 35 year olds and a 33 year old? That's essentially being hard capped with a minimum of 9 roster spots needing to be filled. Snipezo will find a way to manage this, but it's all or nothing this season and it shows as we look forward.
#24
Retirement home #1 has become retirement home #2 as Andre Drummond and two questionable first round picks have joined the roster. Toronto holds that crown now, but Phoenix is in a similar place. They've got less overall roster value by my estimations (Kevin Durant is a supremely valued piece even as an expiring player at 31) but there is still a lot of talent that can be shuffled around to keep the window open (or at least cracked) for contention. There are enough staggered contracts ending at the right time to where it doesn't seem unreasonable the Suns could move their future expirings next offseason in an effort to reload with a younger group. I'm definitely not jumping to pre-order any Suns 2022 merch, but the relatively clean payroll will be easy to maneuver in a direction they feel comfortable with when the time comes.
#23
While the point of this article is simply to rate rosters as they are, I think it's worth pointing out that a team like Utah (who has been committed to trading away any and all draft capital in a search for players like Jeremy Lin) has shown that there are expensive paths to relevancy. You could argue last season's squad wasn't really even relevant, but they've flipped their big name talent (with modest production) to assemble a big three that would have been amazing 5 years ago. I think CP3 and LeBron can still put up numbers, and Millsap should be a good scorer as a third wheel if nothing else. That said, it's clear this team made these moves of shipping away youth, cost-controlled talent and picks for aging stars to go all in this season. Given they're highly unlikely to then flip one of these guys for future assets, the reality of these contracts and ages will set in after the season ends. There's nothing to be excited about here, and with their picks gone for the next two years, they'd better hope things work out for at least that long. Will anyone take these guys when they're all 36 and making a combined $100M? It seems like Utah is locked in to this group for three years, which might pay off now but certainly limits their ceiling long term.
#22
Detroit has some fantastic cornerstones at PG and C for the next few years, but they have a similar problem to Utah. It's all in right now, worry about the problems later. I have more confidence in Detroit long term (despite them also missing their next two first rounders) because it seems a lot easier to move someone like Ibaka or Jennings at age 30-32, although Ibaka's All-NBA level play will eventually diminish and his salary might become a bit of a problem in trade negotiations. At least the current timeline looks okay for Detroit, but if they miss on free agents they could be a candidate for the annual "we're a really good team but only 9th in the East" award.
#21
Milwaukee finds themselves towards the late-middle portion of this list because they have essentially nothing worth talking about outside of Kevin Love. Sure, D'Angelo Russell is an RFA and still under their control, but do you really match a max offer on a guy that doesn't fit your system if it comes through? Is 9 points per game worth a max? Can you even let him go since your next most valuable piece is uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh (don't worry I won't say Tacko Fall) Goran Dragic? I question how much value DLo would have to the rest of the league if he gets a max (it's tradition for people to overpay RFAs so expect it). I don't want to roast Milwaukee though, they've got a team that should be competitive again and they're showing us all how to maximize one star player. Eventually Milwaukee may want to move Love to assemble some hope for the long haul though. He's expiring next year... look for him to be the premium piece on the market next offseason.
#20
Dallas has a clean financial situation to start, but they also have some sneaky nice prospects in Bridges, Claxton and King. Kuzma is doodoo. These aren't stars, but they're all guys that I could see being rotation pieces on a playoff squad. The real value here is the potential for the commish to change everyone's ratings and make his roster amazing. Just kidding, the real value is the ability to move Rose/Lin/Gasol/Leonard for some assets to help things along as we move forward. It's nothing amazing looking ahead 5 years, but it's a roster that has no issues to deal with either.
#19
Houston retained their best player (DeRozan, whose contract may someday offset his value to a point of moving him), added a legit star PG (Mike Conley, who is also coming off the books and might be a prime S&T guy next offseason) and flipped some other pieces for youth in Jaylen Brown and Pascal Siakam. They also have Bam Adebayo for the long haul, and players like Ed Davis are always valued around the league if they hit the market. Houston's definitely built more for the present than the future, but they've got a mix of pieces that keep things flexible. Lacking picks for the next two seasons is a bit concerning, but only the 2021 picks have a shot at being relatively valuable.
#18
Chicago is a weird one to rank. Their best asset right now is Trae Young, but their second best asset is either A) they have no other assets but do have their picks, or B) their cap space. Gary Harris has a very affordable contract and seems like the perfect player to move if Chicago commits to the tank, while Clarke and Washington form an intriguing rookie PF duo with a reasonably high ceiling. They also own 3 first round picks in 2021, which could pay off handsomely. I might be ranking this team a little low for where they'll be in 24 hours, but right now I can't consider cap space to be such an amazing asset that they command a higher ranking. This team would be a dream to take over though, considering there's a premium building block and no headaches whatsoever to clean up.
#17
Atlanta is also tough for me to rank, because I feel they raised their long term ceiling on paper by moving Bron for some younger pieces with reasonable contracts. I can't help but think name value played a huge part in this deal though, because none of the pieces they got are things I'd consider to be a good value for a player with the ratings of LBJ. I'm a bit biased here and also probably can't be critical since I also traded LeBron for much less than he probably could have been worth, but regardless I can't help but think Atlanta could have received a better offer if they shopped him a little longer. Atlanta's got a solid path to staying relevant for a long time though, and a skilled player like Steph Curry should age just fine. His value will be sky high whenever he hits the trade market, meaning that Atlanta will always have a fallback option to push their future up a few notches in one deal. One last thing to note - Romeo Langford may have the highest ceiling of everyone Atlanta received in that deal. Whether that's a red flag regarding the deal or a sneaky steal is up to you.
#16
Sacramento has masterfully found high level players on affordable contracts, which really raise their long term ceiling in my book. The difference between paying $27M or less for your three stars compared to the ~$33M per player that a team like Toronto is paying will always be felt when it comes time to sign depth in free agency. Sacramento has cap space (not a lot, but enough to add one or two steals before using MLE/LLE/birds). This can't be understated for both the short term and long term, as it points to both their ability to keep everyone together and also move these players much easier than someone that ends a contract at $45M+ per year. They did move Knox and Bryant along with picks in the offseason, but adding another star didn't really change their overall roster value should they choose to retool down the line.
#15
Charlotte is tough to measure for future rankings - they added a superstar who's also expiring, and moved a significant part of their young core to add him. That said, they kept their crown jewel Deandre Ayton, and they still have a few really solid younger pieces in Brandon Ingram and Terrence Ross. This team has cap flexibility, the ability to move Russ for assets if the project doesn't work, and most importantly (and the thing that separates most of these teams in the top half from the bottom half) they have a legitimate building block for the future. As long as they're decent this year, losing their 2020 first round pick won't be anything major for them. They still have their 2021 in case Russ leaves, which wouldn't be ideal but it's a solid safety net that limits this group's future floor from dropping too low.
#14
Let's just be clear - this core (even without any depth prior to free agency) is my pick to win the title if they hold it together one more year. The efficiency and fit of these guys is unmatched, especially now that Cleveland is on a new trajectory. James Harden may have quietly become the league's best piece, potentially surpassing Kyrie (it's an argument I'd even make, although the ring count tells a different story). Basically I'm saying there's a ton of current value in this roster, and even if the aging stars don't get swapped for youth they'll still have James Harden around in his prime for a few more years. Klay is the only flight risk this offseason (apart from JaVale McGee, who might be on the decline already... $25M in cap space isn't the worst outcome if he isn't traded), so there's plenty of time for Indiana to see how things go this year. Their ceiling down the road will definitely be highest if they sell some older pieces before they lose a ton of value, but I think it's such a clear path to being a top 5 team once again that you might as well just keep it rolling and deal with a rebuild later.
#13
Cleveland is similar to Indiana, but they get the edge in these rankings due in part to the age difference between Kyrie and Harden. Adding DeAndre Hunter and some extra picks is a nice move for their future, and the clean cap space will pay big dividends at some point. FBB loves a high win rating in free agency as well, so keep an eye on that when they do get a GM that's aggressive to get them back into the finals. There's not a ton that needs to be said here - if you have prime Kyrie and clean cap, your window is wide open. There's only one scenario where they stumble, and that's if he leaves in free agency leaving them in a full on rebuild (which still would put them somewhere in the teens in this list since they'd become the favorite for some #1 picks).
#12
Denver could fluctuate a lot in these rankings depending on where your level of belief in Ja Morant is placed. I also have some questions about how wise it is to spend the majority of your cap space on a trio of Melo/Julius Randle/Derrick Favors, but in 2-3 years I'm not convinced those guys will be part of the Nuggets' story anyway. They bought low on these guys and didn't destroy and youth for them, so for the time being I'm a bit split on them. I think Ja's upside is as high as a top 3 PG in the league at some point, but for the time being I'm not ranking them as if that's a done deal. As long as he becomes a clear starter and borderline top 10 PG, I think Denver deserves this 12th spot.
#11
Miami also has a chance to really drop in these rankings, but could also significantly rise in the next year or two. Beyond their clean cap (outside of THJ, who isn't a cancer but also isn't much of an asset at that price in my opinion) they're pretty stacked with good, young talent that will be affordable and in their prime years from now. They've already got a decently established big man core with an average age under 23, and added some under-the-radar rookie wings that have some solid upside as good role players (or in Thybulle's case, solid non-option starter). Buddy Hield will have to prove he's worth a new contract as an option in an outside offense, but the pieces and fit are there for a solid young core that can stay together without any issues.
#10
I'm trying to put bias aside here, but I think Marvin Bagley is one of the best young pieces in the league. That's coming from someone that doesn't typically like a scoring big man, but Bagley is efficient already and has some upside as a defender and rebounder. He's potentially a guy that can get you 20 and 10 as a non-option down the road someday, which is insanely valuable in the right system. He's still got 3 more years of a rookie contract, and the Spurs also have youngsters next to him that have a consistent fit with Ben Simmons and Zach Collins. They're going to have to pay these guys eventually (and whoever they draft this season) but they have $50M+ coming off the books this year. This team would have been a lot higher if they had their first rounder in 2019 that ended up being Zion, but they're still in good shape moving forward.
#9
It feels a little weird to say this (only because their GM seems more focused on terrible memes than the league), but the Clippers really have been doing great things with their roster in every department. Devin Booker is plenty young to be your guy for another 5+ years, and the supporting cast of Collins/Hayes/Smith and maybe even Dinwiddie/Hands/Reid is a group that should be retainable and competitive while leaving room for a vet or two. There's also a decent amount of win-now talent in this group that can eventually be swapped out to keep pushing for playoff spots for years to come, and their draft pick situation is completely healthy. Well done Mexi, even camping Brook Lopez's three ball worked out to a degree.
#8
This is a situation with a mix of quality and quantity of young players that might be the best model of consistency in the league as well. Philadelphia has had a young core that's anchored defensively by Rudy Gobert, and offensively by Zach LaVine for three years now. They've been able to add some young pieces in their many trades, which are currently headlined by solid prospects Troy Brown and Robert Williams. They've also been fantastic at developing 2nd round talent, so don't sleep on guys like Isaac Bonga or Dewan Hernandez. While I'm not so sure that LaVine or Tobias Harris are definitive max-level players, they're more than competent starters who fit the scoring roles that fit the rest of the roster cleanly. Maximizing young talent is very important in these rankings, and Philly seems aligned to be in a position to keep doing this long term while adding other pieces.
#7
This may be the most controversial ranking in the list. I can absolutely understand if people doubt Markelle Fultz's development, but there are no yips in FBB. Just bad TCs. So far, Markelle has had one solid TC (+1 I think?) and one amazing TC (either +4 or +5 if I remember correctly). Factoring in his draft position, that's insanely good. This ranking depends on his development continuing at a reasonably good level for a bit, but if he can become a threat to be a 20-8-6 type PG with average efficiency, this is a steal for a team that's in good shape at SG with Victor Oladipo. We're about to find out this year if he's fool's gold or a true star, and again I'm betting on the Wizards coming up in the W column on this. I do have concerns about Lance Stephenson's contract, but he's a stud (at least for now) so at worst he can be moved for cap relief if Washington stumbles and wants to tank this season away before 2021 begins without owning a first rounder. Grant/Kurucs/Konate/Fernando might not be a starting quartet, but they should all have a chance to be cheap contributors that could potentially grow to a point of having legitimate value in future deals.
#6
This could also be considered quite high for a team that owes ancient/underwhelming role players a ton of money, but despite the Amar'e and Rubio contracts I'm still high on this core's future. CJ McCollum and Dennis Smith Jr. are due for a breakout, and despite Joel Embiid's return to his league-leading turnover numbers I think he's also got a lot of room to grow still. Miles Bridges might be the best sleeper pick for most improved player of the year if he's allowed to start, and Michael Porter Jr. possess superstar potential (even if it's somewhat of a longshot). The diversity of star potential really pushes this team ahead of some others behind them on the list, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about the Rubio and Stoudemire contracts limiting their upside. If they can be moved without losing much before it's too late, OKC will be clearly positioned for a spot as high as this ranking suggests.
#5
The Lakers have put together multiple drafts of taking multiple picks, and when you focus on the best player available like they have, your long term ceiling will typically be raised. If for no other reason than trade value, this is the strategy that helps you build something special long term. It's the Seattle Supersonics/OKC Thunder approach that leads to multiple cheap stars on the same roster all at once, and it's what allows a team like LA to trade for a max star in Nikola Jokic as well. I question the fit and value of the Joker, but there's very promising young depth at every position here with no cap issues after this season ($35M in dead money from cut salaries hurts, but not that much). I'm not sure there's a superstar on this roster right now, but there might be as many as four or five lower level stars. If you can assemble that many good players without having to pay into the hard cap, you're doing it right.
#4
I may be higher on Luka Doncic than most in this league following an okay-but-not-amazing rookie season, but I think he's one of the top few young players in the league to watch for. He has potential to be the league's top offensive player, and his talents are so complete and well-rounded he could do it at any of the three perimeter positions. Beyond this, Golden State has their picks and a clean cap (apart from Andrew Bynum's two year deal, but I think they're very likely to be able to find him a home after free agency should they choose to tank) as well as a nice group of supporting pieces next to Luka. Don't sleep on the versatile Jarrett Culver either, who like Luka (and Caris LeVert) can play a multitude of roles and positions. Some of the other projects on the roster (Isaac/Doumbouya/Simons/Lecque) are also players filled with potential, but have some questions regarding their best fit. I'm not sure any of those last four guys have a clear position or role, but that's not necessarily a bad thing when it comes time to trade them to fill out your roster's holes.
#3
There have been no shortage of jokes about Memphis' commitment to drafting shot blocking big men with very high picks, but the strategy has proven to be pretty successful. Jarrett Allen has looked like a top 5 or 10 center on both ends of the court since his first game, which is a huge part of why Memphis finds itself here. It's a bit absurd that I'm viewing Jarrett Allen as a better piece than Ayton/Bagley/Embiid/Jokic/Towns, but here we are. A huge part of this also relates to his contract - Memphis HAS to capitalize on the fact that their whole roster is due for paychecks but haven't reached free agency yet. Jae Crowder is expiring, and Joakim Noah/Cody Zeller are good players that can probably be moved after free agency. If those players can be moved and Memphis spends all of their newfound cap space in next season's free agency, they should be able to stay under the hard cap after paying guys like Allen and Jackson/Schroder to return. The upside of Bamba/Sexton/White/Walker/Hachimura/Bol is very exciting for a team that has always been a defensive juggernaut, but hasn't always had an identity on offense. This young group is all 3+ years from getting paid, so if they time it right they should be one of the favorites for a title in the next few years.
#2
As we get very close to #1, let me say that the top 4 in this list are all very close to me. We're at a point where a team's ceiling can only be raised by a superstar, and I think Orlando has multiple future superstars on their roster right now while Memphis may not have any (but they certainly will have well over 5 very good players) and Golden State has some mild changes to sort out next to Luka. Damian Lillard is already a star, and in my unbiased opinion (really, he's not on my team anymore so I don't have a horse in this race anymore) he's a superstar. I'd still take Harden or Kyrie over him, but I think Dame will be a 30-10-6-2 PG this season if he's the first option next to Jamal Murray (future star) and Jayson Tatum (future star). Add in the fact that they've also got Wendell Carter Jr. (future star) and Thomas Bryant (fantastic cheap, young big man), as well as a bench unit featuring some promising rookies and Malcolm Brogdon, and you've got yourself a roster with tons of flexibility and upside. They even have 5 first round picks in the next 3 drafts, so there's plenty of added value that can be added to the roster at no loss (or added to a blockbuster trade, which is what I'd predict happens eventually). This team might start winning 50+ games as soon as this season, but I think their peak will be firmly rooted 2-5 seasons from now.
#1
Really! The league's most forgettable, boring franchise has an active GM, a face to headline the roster, and they even added a bonafide 2x champion and former All-NBA 1st Team member that also fits their title window. Don't get me wrong, this team might be bad this season. Lonzo Ball has upside but many questions, especially in an outside offense. Bradley Beal will be a stud for them in any system, but if the offense is catered to inside for both Zion (we'll get to him in a second) and Lonzo, you're kind of wasting his talents. There's also Jaren Jackson Jr., who might fit in an inside system equally as well as he'd fit in an outside system. Will he ever rebound though? This roster is very weird at the moment, but it has a lot of valuable pieces (including 5 first rounders in the next 3 years) and most importantly the cornerstone of all cornerstones. Zion Williamson will be a problem for the rest of the league to figure out. He's an atypical player, but Brooklyn has a season or two to figure out where he fits best, and which other pieces on the roster need to be replaced to maximize him. This is the perfect situation for a player like Zion, who'd potentially get lost on another team if he gets pigeonholed to a single position or role early and never finds his best environment. Brooklyn also has a pristine cap situation going forward, and their current roster is free of any bad deals. As long as they're patient and don't go all in right away for no reason, this team should be very scary long term. One last prediction on this team - Lonzo Ball's 19/244 shooting performance on 3 pointers last season might wear Larry's patience thin, but that's perfect for tanking with. If he decides to switch it up, watch for PG Bradley Beal to make a serious MVP push.
