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Jeff Risdon/RealGM - As always, this represents what I believe the teams would do if presented the draft scenario here. This does not necessarily mesh with what I would do given the same situation.
Some of these picks are more player/slot related than team/player related. I do expect a good deal of trade activity in the 15-40 range of this draft, and some of that involves the potential franchise tagging and subsequent dealing of Raiders CB Nnamde Asomugha , Bengals WR TJ Houshmandzadeh, and Panthers DE Julius Peppers. That is not anything but speculation on my part, but don’t be surprised if/when it happens.
Round 1
1. Detroit Lions: Andre Smith, T, Alabama
This was my pre-Senior Bowl pick, and nothing I saw or heard in Mobile changed my opinion that the Lions are going to address the line and add toughness before they tackle the quarterback issue. A lot of folks I talked to believe Bama’s putrid line performance in the Sugar Bowl sans Smith proves just how great the left tackle will be at the next level. Just a somewhat educated hunch, but if they do choose to go QB, it will be Mark Sanchez and not Matt Stafford.
2. St. Louis Rams: Eugene Monroe, T, Virginia
The Rams have to replace every OL spot over the next two seasons, perhaps sooner if Orlando Pace calls it quits this offseason. It’s a no-brainer they take a tackle, and Monroe is the sort of elite athlete with experience against NFL-caliber talent that can start right away.
3. Kansas City Chiefs: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
I am a Tyler Thigpen guy, but he clearly isn’t ready to helm a more traditional NFL offense. Stafford is well-versed in pro style offenses, and his physical tools compare favorably to Matt Ryan or Phillip Rivers. Teams are genuinely concerned about his inconsistency and ball security, but his upside is somewhere between Peyton and Eli Manning. The Chiefs could part with both Gonzalez and Larry Johnson this spring, which would mean the team needs a new leader and foundational, marketable star. Stafford fits that bill better than Mark Sanchez in a city like Kansas City.
4. Seattle Seahawks: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
This appears to be the de facto lock pick of the first round in pretty much every mock, and that is for a reason. I know the Seahawks were very intently scouting the wideouts in Mobile, and Crabtree is head and shoulders above anyone at the Senior Bowl.
5. Cleveland Browns: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
New coach Eric Mangini knows what it’s like to run a 3-4 defense without capable linebackers, and right now Cleveland has just one in D’Qwell Jackson (maybe two, if the rookie Kam Wimbley ever resurfaces). Curry has the athletic prowess and football IQ to fill any spot. He will enter the draft rated higher than either of the last two Defensive Rookies of the Year, Pat Willis and Jerod Mayo.
6. Cincinnati Bengals: Jason Smith, T, Baylor
Reminds a lot of scouts I’ve talked to of Ryan Clady, who just finished a very successful rookie season in Denver. The Bengals have some major needs up front, and Smith has experience playing as part of a rebuilding program in a division of tough competition.
7. Oakland Raiders: BJ Raji, DT, Boston College
The defensive gem of Mobile, Raji plays with the bulky quickness and intensity of Warren Sapp, a guy the Raiders have never adequately replaced after his one great season in Oakland. The prospect of a game-changing WR like Jeremy Maclin certainly makes sense, but I’m guessing (and this is just a guess) that if Al Davis really wants him, he can deal Nnamde Asomugha to the highest bidder and use that booty on Maclin. You read that here first!
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
The way the Jaguars coaches tested and worked with the physically imposing backer in Mobile, it sure seemed like they were auditioning him for this pick. Maualuga delivered, quieting the skeptics (myself included) who questioned his assignment discipline and quickness. It is not inconsequential that Coach Jack Del Rio is a former USC LB himself.
9. Green Bay Packers: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
This would represent a great marriage of need and value for the Packers, who sorely need young talent at CB. Jenkins will sit no worse than 3rd overall on most draft boards and has the size and attitude to thrive in Dom Capers’ aggressive defense.
10. San Francisco 49ers: Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
The junior Seminole draws a lot of comparisons to Gaines Adams, a pass rushing end who can also hold the edge against the run better than most. He needs to work on his countermoves, and his ceiling is probably 12 sacks a year and not 16, but many NFL cognoscenti believe Brown will be the best overall defensive end in this draft class when all careers are done. I would not rule out Mark Sanchez here, or Stafford if he’s somehow still on the board.
11. Buffalo Bills: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
The Bills inability to rush the passer was a major factor in their plunge from 5-1 to 7-9, and with top end Aaron Schobel’s health status a major question, the Bills have to take aggressive action. Orakpo is a physical freak who has a lot of Dwight Freeney’s speed and leverage to his game.
12. Denver Broncos: Brian Cushing, LB, USC
The defensive overhaul begins with Cushing, a bone-rattling hitter with good range and blitzing ability. Cushing has a lengthy injury history and lacks great numbers, but his talent and potential are too high to pass here.
13. Washington Redskins: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State
Pure speed edge rushers with Maybin’s veracity are hard to find, and the Skins sorely need impact playmakers on defense. The redshirt sophomore needs a lot of development, particularly against the run, but his ceiling is the top shelf of NFL ends.
14. New Orleans Saints: Alex Mack, C, California
The Saints don’t like to talk about it, but they missed Jeff Faine a lot more than they expected in 2008. Mack is the best center prospect to come around in a long time, and he has the leadership and intelligence to lead the line for years.
15. Houston Texans: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
I talked to a rival coach about the Texans in Mobile about what he felt Houston needed to get over the hump. His blunt answer, “Two corners and two safeties.” Davis has great size and ball skills, bringing a physical presence that the Texans have never had, though some evaluators question his drive and tackling.
16. San Diego Chargers: Michael Oher, T, Ole Miss
One of the most difficult players to slot in years, Oher often shows you everything you could possibly want in a franchise left tackle, like a fine Chianti. He also has long stretches where he leaves the palate reeking of wine from a box; it gets the job done but it’s not particularly pleasant and you know it should be better. The Chargers struck gold with a similar prospect in Marcus McNeill a couple years ago, and Oher has perennial Pro Bowl potential, which is hard to bypass at this point of the draft.
17. New York Jets: Jeremy Maclin, WR/KR, Missouri
No matter who the Jets trot out at QB (early educated guess: Byron Leftwich), they must provide better weapons for him to succeed. Maclin comes out as a slightly bigger, slightly slower (though faster to accelerate) Ted Ginn Jr. Like Ginn, Maclin is probably just a #2 WR but brings value in the return game and on reverses and Wildcat sets.
18. Chicago Bears: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
Big, physical dynamo with great hands and the panache that no Bears wideout has brought in years. I don’t believe the Bears have any interest in a 1st round QB, but rather prefer to give Kyle Orton a legit wideout, and Nicks could be the best of the bunch in this entire draft class.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
This is probably lower than you’ll see Sanchez in any mock draft, but the people I talked to in Mobile and in other settings all express very real concern in his lack of experience and the poor quality of the defenses he lit up. The Bucs need to end the QB roulette that predominated the Gruden era, though this pick also represents more of a player/slot than a team/player marriage.
20. Detroit Lions (from DAL): Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
I anticipate Freeman’s stock and profile will rise after the Combine, so this is more of a pre-emptive strike. Blessed with the physical qualities of Joe Flacco, including the arm, Freeman was often quite good with a meager supporting cast at KSU. He also had games where he looked nothing like an NFL QB, which is why he will likely be available at #20 overall. The Lions have to do something bold, and keeping Daunte Culpepper around to mentor Freeman makes a lot of sense.
21. Philadelphia Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
The first RB off the board falls all the way to #21, thanks to a highly oversaturated market of young talent and capable veterans. Moreno brings the inside/outside running that the Eagles have lacked, save the 6 games the last 3 seasons when Correll Buckhalter was healthy enough to play. His hands are a welcome bonus for McNabb & Co.
22. Minnesota Vikings: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
The big fella certainly has the potential to go higher, but in this scenario he slides to the Vikings, who would take exactly 8 seconds before sending the card to Roger Goodell. A flat-out nasty blocker with deceptive speed and strong hands, Pettigrew enters this draft with as much upside as any TE prospect since Vernon Davis. The Vikings pray Pettigrew plays with more conviction and consistent effort, which have not been issues while at OSU.
23. New England Patriots: Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan
If they gave a “Mr. Congeniality” award at the Senior Bowl, Delmas would wear the crown. He is a smart, physical safety who showed he can run with receivers and make plays on the ball. Don’t tell him I said this, but Rodney Harrison is at the end of the line, and Delmas provides a very capable replacement with the football smarts Belichick covets.
24. Atlanta Falcons: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
The Falcons secondary often survived on smoke and mirrors in 2008, and they were exposed in the playoff loss to Arizona. Smith brings everything you want in a cover corner except he’s about 3 inches short. Even so, his skills would be a very welcome addition in Atlanta.
25. Miami Dolphins: Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois
English turned heads in Mobile with his surprising power and barrage of countermoves, and the Dolphins need someone exactly like English opposite Joey Porter. His similarities to Fins legend Jason Taylor are not a stretch.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Percy Harvin, ATH, Florida
Ostensibly a slot wide receiver but with the trappings of a “lightning” back in a thunder/lightning RB package, Harvin brings a lot of the skills of Reggie Bush. His receiving skills favorably compare to Desean Jackson, another player of similar ilk. The Ravens are in the market for offensive playmakers, though if they allow Suggs or Scott to depart, a LB becomes a more likely pick here.
27. Philadelphia Eagles (from CAR): Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
Part of the booty for allowing the Panthers to draft Jeff Otah, the Eagles replenish their DL depth with the quick Jerry, who can handle both the 1 and 3 techniques. The Eagles have a long (their faithful would say frustrating) history of bucking conventional wisdom with their early draft picks, and this would keep that long train running.
28. Indianapolis Colts: James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State
Baby Animal brings much-needed size and ferocity to the middle of the Colts defense. It will be interesting to see how much the new coaching staff tweaks the defense, but Laurinaitis has the football smarts and is athletic enough to fit in and make an immediate upgrade to the run defense.
29. New York Giants: Clay Matthews, LB/DE, USC
Eerily similar to Matthias Kiwanuka, this pick might seem redundant. But the G-Men have a need for playmaking LBs, and with both Kiwanuka and the speedy power of Matthews, they have flexibility to play a 5-man front or a 3-man front and bring pressure from all over the place. He is a prototypical Tom Coughlin guy.
30. Tennessee Titans: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
Another underclassman whose performance often swings wildly from looking like a perennial Pro Bowler to a 6th rounder, Heyward-Bey is physically similar to Larry Fitzgerald. The Titans have a major need for anyone who can get open and actually catch the ball, and DHB excels at transitioning from receiver to runner.
31. Arizona Cardinals: Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State
Questions about his toughness, both physical and mental, cause Beanie to unexpectedly fall. The Cards will gamble that it was the worse-than-reported toe injury that dimmed his bulb and hope he can light it up like he did in 2007, when Wells finished his runs with authority. If so, this Super Bowl trip likely won’t be their last.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Tyson Jackson, DT, LSU
Jackson disappointed a lot of Bayou Bengal faithful because he never emerged as a big-time sack artist. But scouts I’ve talked to like how Jackson worked at his lower body strength and ability to get off blocks. He fits best as a 3-4 DE playing 5-technique, and the Steelers need fresh young talent in their rotation up front. Their fans might covet a tackle here, but early indications are the Steelers are not real high on the second tier tackles in this draft, not at this slot anyways.
Round 2
33. Detroit Lions: D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt
34. Kansas City Chiefs: Eben Britton, T, Arizona
35. St. Louis Rams: Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech
36. Seattle Seahawks: Nate Davis, QB, Ball State
37. Cleveland Browns: LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh
38. Cincinnati Bengals: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
39. Oakland Raiders: Derrick Williams, WR, Penn State
40. Jacksonville Jaguars: Brandon Tate, WR, North Carolina
41. Green Bay Packers: Antoine Caldwell, C, Alabama
42. San Francisco 49ers: Derek Pegues, S, Mississippi State
43. Buffalo Bills: William Beatty, T, UConn
44. Denver Broncos: Coye Francies, CB, San Jose State
45. Miami Dolphins (from WAS): Deangelo Smith, DB, Cincinnati
46. New York Giants (from NO): Darius Butler, CB, UConn
47. Houston Texans: Sean Smith, CB, Utah
48. New England Patriots (from SD): Clint Sintim, LB, Virginia
49. New York Jets: Mike Mickens, CB, Cincinnati
50. Chicago Bears: Patrick Chung, S, Oregon
51. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jarron Gilbert, DT, San Jose State
52. Dallas Cowboys: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
53. Philadelphia Eagles: Asher Allen, CB, Georgia
54. Minnesota Vikings: Marcus Freeman, LB, Ohio State
55. New England Patriots: Fili Moala, DT, USC
56. Atlanta Falcons: Chase Coffman, TE, Missouri
57. Miami Dolphins: Kraig Urbik, G, Wisconsin
58. Baltimore Ravens: Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State
59. Carolina Panthers: Ziggy Hood, DT, Missouri
60. Indianapolis Colts: Donald Brown, RB, UConn
61. New York Giants: SenDerrick Marks, DT, Auburn
62. Tennessee Titans: Shawn Nelson, TE, Southern Miss
63. Arizona Cardinals: Connor Barwin, DE/TE, Cincinnati
64. Pittsburgh Steelers: Troy Kropog, T, Tulane
Round 3
65. Detroit Lions: Gerald McRath, LB, Southern Miss
66. St. Louis Rams: Jonathan Luigs, C, Arkansas
67. Kansas City Chiefs: Matt Shaughnessy, DE, Wisconsin
68. Seattle Seahawks: Andre Brown, RB, North Carolina State
69. Dallas Cowboys (from CLE): Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma
70. Cincinnati Bengals: Paul Kruger, DE, Utah
71. Oakland Raiders: Patrick Turner, WR, USC
72. Jacksonville Jaguars: Michael Hamlin, S, Clemson
73. Green Bay Packers: Tyrone McKenzie, LB, South Florida
74. San Francisco 49ers: Sherrod Martin, CB, Troy
75. Buffalo Bills: Jared Cook, TE, South Carolina
76. Denver Broncos: Cody Brown, DE, UConn
77. Washington Redskins: Kevin Barnes, CB, Maryland
78. New Orleans Saints: Mitch King, DT, Iowa
79. Houston Texans: Max Unger, G/C, Oregon
80. San Diego Chargers: Shonn Greene, RB, Iowa
81. New York Jets: Rhett Bomar, QB, Sam Houston State
82. Chicago Bears: Jeremiah Johnson, RB, Oregon
83. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Captain Munnerlyn, CB, South Carolina
84. Detroit Lions (from DAL): Brandon Williams, DE, Texas Tech
85. Philadelphia Eagles: Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Oklahoma
86http://football.realgm.com/rgmadmin/. Minnesota Vikings: Alex Magee, DT Purdue
87. New England Patriots: Brandon Gibson, WR, Washington State
88. Atlanta Falcons: Jonathan Casillas, LB, Wisconsin
89. Miami Dolphins: Rashad Johnson, S, Alabama
90. Baltimore Ravens: Macho Harris, CB, Virginia Tech
91. Carolina Panthers: Travis Beckum, TE, Wisconsin
92. Indianapolis Colts: Darry Beckwith, LB, LSU
93. New York Giants: Darius Hill, TE, Ball State
94. Tennessee Titans: Jamon Meredith, T, South Carolina
95. Arizona Cardinals: Jason Phillips, LB, TCU
96. Pittsburgh Steelers: Alex Boone, T, Ohio State
