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From:realgm
Jeff Risdon
Once again this edition features trades, but this time just two: the Ethnic Slurs moving up to #2 and the Patriots dealing out of #31. I suspect there will be more trades than this in the first 40 picks, but we will know a lot more about that as the draft gets closer.
It is still way too early to accurately slot teams with players, primarily because free agency has yet to kick off. This is also the time of year where coaches do as much homework and film work as they can on players that intrigue them, with input from scouting staffs and collegiate contacts they trust.
An asterisk (*) will indicate Jeff-induced trades. I tried to keep them as realistic as possible in terms of compensation.
1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford.
No change foreseen. Ever.
2. *Washington Ethnic Slurs (from STL): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor.
Washington trades #6 overall, #70 overall, their 5th round pick this year and their 2013 1st round and 3rd round picks to the Rams to move up and select RG3. The Heisman Trophy winner has sky-high potential and a compelling charisma that the franchise has sorely lacked in recent years. He will absolutely be the #2 pick.
3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, T, USC.
Hard for a top-shelf player to really help himself at the Combine, but Kalil pulled that off by showing up bigger and stronger than expected. The Vikings desperately need an OL upgrade, but they have to strongly consider Morris Claiborne here too.
4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama.
This is a contingency pick; if the Browns sign Matt Flynn (as I think they will), then Richardson or Claiborne is the pick. If Flynn goes elsewhere (Seattle? Miami?) then I think the Browns seriously consider Ryan Tannehill here.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU.
There is ample chatter that the Bucs really want Richardson as they currently have zero running backs under contract, but they also figure on losing both starting corners from a year ago in a pass-happy division loaded with Pro Bowl QBs.
6. *St. Louis Rams (from WAS): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State.
The Rams fall back but still get a (they hope) impact player for a moribund offense. Blackmon looks like a great fit with the throwing style of Sam Bradford.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina.
Will not be the most popular pick, but that has mattered not for JAX. They need pass rush sizzle, and Ingram brings great athletic versatility. The Jaguars are quietly building a very fast defense and Ingram fits with that theme.
8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M.
Another contingency pick; if they sign Flynn or Peyton Manning, I think they will look at guys like Riley Reiff or Kendall Wright here. Barring the free agent acquisition of a QB, Tannehill is a better prospect than Locker/Gabbert/Ponder from a year ago and will be drafted as such right here.
9. Carolina Panthers: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama.
NFL coaches love Alabama DBs as Nick Saban is a secondary specialist who knows the NFL game. Kirkpatrick brings great length and reliability, and the Panthers can use a big-time talent at corner. A defensive tackle would not surprise me here.
10. Buffalo Bills: Quentin Coples, DT/DE, North Carolina.
Coples is not without his risks, but his potential as a pass rusher both inside and out is too tantalizing for Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey to look past. Sleeper pick: Kendall Wright, if he is even still available.
11. Kansas City Chiefs: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame.
A strong Combine solidified Floyd in the conversation as the best wideout in this draft. With Dwayne Bowe having an uncertain future, taking a receiver like Floyd makes sense. Dontari Poe and Fletcher Cox will get long consideration.
12. Seattle Seahawks: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State.
I think the Seahawks will be active traders on draft weekend and this pick could easily wind up with another team. Cox is a perceived draft board riser with very good potential, and the Seahawks need someone to pair with Red Bryant along the defensive front.
13. Arizona Cardinals: Mike Adams, T, Ohio State.
Lots of different directions to look here, but with the underwhelming Levi Brown up in the air and issues on the other side as well, the massive Adams will get a long look from Ken Whisenhunt and Co. Consider this the floor of Michael Floyd right now.
14. Dallas Cowboys: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis.
The biggest (literally) winner from the Combine is the dream of Rob Ryan, a quick tackle with great strength that can collapse the pocket from the inside and move around on the line. If he is gone -- and he might be -- they will look at corners and perhaps David Decastro.
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College.
Even though Andy Reid loathes spending his early picks on linebackers, even he can see that their ineptness at LB cost them several games last year and must be prominently addressed.
16. New York Jets: Courtney Upshaw, DE/LB, Alabama.
Upshaw can do a lot of things very well, but he is not a dominant natural pass rusher. His thickness and violence against the run augment his value, and he has some ability to get to the QB. The Jets need two of him.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from OAK): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor.
Marvin Lewis rejoices that Wright had an awful 40 yard dash, which causes him to fall into his lap. Wright never had any issue getting behind the defense at Baylor and will ease the pressure on AJ Green on the other side.
18. San Diego Chargers: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin.
With a line in upheaval well beyond the retirement of Kris Dielman, taking the best lineman on the board makes a whole lot of sense ... which is why they will strongly consider Donta Hightower or Janoris Jenkins here as well.
19. Chicago Bears: Donta Hightower, LB, Alabama.
He has the physical prowess to play any of the LB positions in this modified Tampa 2, and can fill the shoes of a certain #54 when needed.
20. Tennessee Titans: Riley Reiff, T, Iowa.
Not their biggest need but with a legendary offensive lineman as the head coach, it is hard to see the Titans passing on such a value here. Reiff could very well go long before here, and restocking the corner or DT positions makes sense in lieu of that.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska.
Physical press man corner fits this scheme opposite Leon Hall, and his run support is a welcome bonus. I will be stunned if they do not use one of their two first rounders on a corner.
22. Cleveland Browns (from ATL): David Decastro, G, Stanford.
This is the range where a great deal of trade activity typically goes down, and Decastro is the top-rated talent left. Not that the Browns could not use him...
23. Detroit Lions: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama.
He brings some "high" baggage, but Jenkins has shutdown corner potential and impressed in interviews at the Combine. The potential reward outweighs the risk for the DB-needy Lions. I will rip my Billy Sims jersey to shreds if they draft a running back here.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jamell Fleming, CB, Oklahoma. I have spoken with a couple of NFL personnel people that told me they believe Fleming could very well go in the first round. He is very solid and tackles well, though he does have some academic misconduct issues. Pittsburgh needs a lot of youth all over the roster and could deal down for more picks.
25. Denver Broncos: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU.
Arguably the biggest loser of the Combine, Brockers has lost the mantra of being an athletic specimen capable of greatness. He still has good potential and will play the run well, which endears him to John Fox.
26. Houston Texans: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech.
Hard to tell how well he can convert from an offense that threw about 10 times a game into the NFL, but Hill has the size/speed/hands to become a real gem. Houston must get Andre Johnson some better outside help than Jacoby Jones.
27. New England Patriots (from NO): Mark Barron, S, Alabama.
Still the top safety even though he could not work out, and Belichick trusts his former underling Saban. Of course the Patriots will trade this pick for two second-rounders, which they will squander on a swing tackle and a dime corner...
28. Green Bay Packers: Kendall Reyes, DL, UConn.
Under the radar guy that projects nicely as a 5-technique who can generate some pass rush, precisely what the woeful Green Bay defense needs.
29. Baltimore Ravens: Cordy Glenn, OL, Georgia.
Glenn is a versatile widebody springing up draft boards thanks to a great Senior Bowl week and a strong showing in Indy. With Ben Grubbs a free agent and fairly persistent issues at tackle, Glenn makes a lot of sense. So would a bigger receiver or perhaps even the successor to Joe Flacco.
30. San Francisco 49ers: David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech.
Honestly I think the Niners trade this pick, and this is more representative of where I think Wilson comes off the board than what the Niners might do here. A wideout or corner make sense for Team Harbaugh.
31. *Oakland Raiders (from NE): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina.
Oakland trades their 2013 1st round and 4th round picks to move back into this draft and select the talented but inconsistent Gilmore to replace the departed Stanford Routt. If the Patriots keep both their 1st round picks in their current draft slots I will eat a wool hat.
32. New York Giants: Jonathan Martin, T, Stanford.
Scouts are all over the map on Martin and slotting him is particularly tricky at this premature juncture; he could go in the top 10, he could fall well below here. New York must upgrade from David Diehl at tackle.
Round Two
33. St. Louis Rams: Trumaine Johnson, CB, Montana
34. Indianapolis Colts: Alameda Ta-Amu, DT, Washington
35. Minnesota Vikings: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
36. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Doug Martin, RB, Boise State
37. Cleveland Browns: Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
38. Jacksonville Jaguars: Kelechi Osemele, OL, Iowa State
39. Washington Ethnic Slurs: Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson
40. Miami Dolphins: Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC
41. Buffalo Bills: Casey Hayward, CB, Vanderbilt
42. Carolina Panthers: Zack Brown, LB, North Carolina
43. Seattle Seahawks: Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
44. Kansas City Chiefs: Andre Branch, DE, Clemson
45. Dallas Cowboys: Brandon Boykin, CB, Georgia
46. Philadelphia Eagles: Brandon Washington, G/T, Miami FL
47. New York Jets: Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame
48. New England Patriots (from OAK): Ronnell Lewis, LB, Oklahoma
49. San Diego Chargers: Orson Charles, TE, Georgia
50. Chicago Bears: Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson
51. Philadelphia Eagles (from ARI): Cam Johnson, DE, Virginia
52. Tennessee Titans: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
53. Cincinnati Bengals: Chris Polk, RB, Washington
54. Detroit Lions: Mitchell Schwartz, T, California
55. Atlanta Falcons: Dwight Bill Bentley, CB, Louisiana Lafayette
56. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kevin Zeitler, G, Wisconsin
57. Denver Broncos: Colby Fleener, TE, Stanford
58. Houston Texans: Josh Norman, CB, Coastal Carolina
59. New Orleans Saints: Brock Osweiler, QB, Arizona State
60. Green Bay Packers: George Iloka, S, Boise State
61. Baltimore Ravens: Bobby Wagner, LB, Utah State
62. San Francisco 49ers: Joe Adams, WR/KR, Arkansas
63. New England Patriots: Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
64. New York Giants: Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse
Round Three
65. Indianapolis Colts: Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State
66. St. Louis Rams: Mychael Kendricks, LB, California
67. Minnesota Vikings: Jeff Allen, OL, Illinois
68. Cleveland Browns: Marvin Jones, WR, California
69. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TJ Graham, WR, North Carolina State
70. *St. Louis Rams (from WAS): Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
71. Jacksonville Jaguars: Josh Robinson, CB/RS, Central Florida
72. Buffalo Bills: Kirk Cousins, QB, Michigan State
73. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma
74. Chicago Bears (from CAR): Mike Martin, DT, Michigan
75. Kansas City Chiefs: Nick Foles, QB, Arizona
76. Seattle Seahawks: Devon Wylie, WR/RS, Fresno State
77. Philadelphia Eagles: Antonio Allen, S, South Carolina
78. New York Jets: Isaiah Pead, RB/RS, Cincinnati
79. Oakland Raiders -- used on Terrelle Pryor in Supplemental Draft
80. San Diego Chargers: Jared Crick, DL, Nebraska
81. Chicago Bears: Marvin McNutt, WR, Iowa
82. Arizona Cardinals: Bruce Irvin, OLB, West Virginia
83. Dallas Cowboys: Jake Bequette, DE/OLB, Arkansas
84. Tennessee Titans: Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State
85. Cincinnati Bengals: Chris Owusu, WR, Stanford
86. Atlanta Falcons: Tyrone Crawford, DE, Boise State
87. Detroit Lions: Lavonte David, LB, Nebraska
88. Pittsburgh Steelers: Amini Silatolu, G, Midwestern State
89. Denver Broncos: Ryan Steed, CB, Furman
90. Houston Texans: Malik Jackson, DE, Tennessee
91. New Orleans Saints: Kyle Wilber, LB, Wake Forest
92. Green Bay Packers: Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin
93. Baltimore Ravens: TY Hilton, WR/RS, Florida International
94. San Francisco 49ers: Ben Jones, G/C, Georgia
95. New England Patriots: Jaye Howard, DT, Florida
96. New York Giants: Christian Thompson, S, South Carolina State
