Orioles Sign Nelson Cruz

[mgh1985]

What the hell is your definition of good? There's a reason nobody wanted this guy.
 
He's been average in just about every category since 2011 and this was while he was on the juice. 
 
Plus this article http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-frightening-list-of-nelson-cruz-comparisons/ suggests that he's bound to fall off a cliff. 

 
Did you even read that article? That entire article was written under the assumption that Cruz would get at least 3 years and $32,000,000. I completely agree with that article's premise: Cruz does not deserve a huge deal at this point. I certainly wouldn't call a 1 year deal a "huge deal".
 
FWIW, Dave Cameron seems to like the Nelson Cruz deal on Twitter. 
 
I'd define good as above league average. Cruz is above league average. Reason nobody wanted the guy was because of his demands, PED usage, and the draft pick. No team wanted to give up a first rounder for Nelson Cruz. A second rounder is extremely doable, especially since the Orioles could get a first round pick after this season by offering him a QO. 

 

[elcheato]

Signing Ubaldo to a 4 year deal AND giving up a first round pick based off half a year of production in a contract year was dumb.

This is decent value though, but giving up a second round pick after losing your first rounder already, makes it worse

 

[The Guid]

The Mariners screwed him over by offering him it. 

Or their plan worked.
 
And idk how you can really hate this signing for Baltimore. If he does well, not only does he help, but there's a chance someone signs him next year and the O's get a pick out of it. If not, just move on after the year.

 

[Pugz]

 
Me too. And Ervin Santana is still available as well. Really shocked he's still a free agent. 

santana wants $100M+ and hes tight on that. thats why he hasn't signed

 

[Teagz]

lol whatever you say. These signings late in the offseason might seem nice but the O's are still behind Tampa, Boston, and the Yankees.
 
 
Desperation at it's finest.

 

[mgh1985]

Signing Ubaldo to a 4 year deal AND giving up a first round pick based off half a year of production in a contract year was dumb.

This is decent value though, but giving up a second round pick after losing your first rounder already, makes it worse

 
The last Orioles second round pick to acquire over a 3.0 WAR in his MLB career was Arthur Rhodes. Also, they could get a first round pick back for him by offering him a QO. Agree that it's a risky move, but the Orioles need to be risky. 

 

[mgh1985]

lol whatever you say. These signings late in the offseason might seem nice but the O's are still behind Tampa, Boston, and the Yankees.
 
 
Desperation at it's finest.

 
Games aren't won on paper. We'll see. Have them right around third, ahead of the Yankees. Not sold at all on the Yankees rotation. The Orioles might have a better rotation than them at this point, especially if CC doesn't rebound. Tanaka isn't a sure thing either. Also, the Yankees are, for lack of a better term, old. If Tex is out for the season (he might be), I can't see how you can say that the Yankees are better than the Orioles. Rays and Orioles are very close. Rays farm system is starting to get mighty barren though. I'll concede that at this time, the Red Sox have a better team. 

But at worst, the Orioles rotation in 2015 will be beastly. Tillman, Jimenez, Gausman, Bundy, Gonzalez.

 

[mgh1985]

Or their plan worked.
 
And idk how you can really hate this signing for Baltimore. If he does well, not only does he help, but there's a chance someone signs him next year and the O's get a pick out of it. If not, just move on after the year.

 
I'll agree with that. And that's why the draft pick compensation system has to be fixed. Agree with you on Cruz too. After they signed Jimenez, they basically had nothing to lose by going all-in. I would have personally traded for Justin Smoak or Ike Davis, but Cruz on a one year deal works too. 

 

[Teagz]

Jimenez/Tillman/Chen/Norris/Gonzalez is not better than CC/Tanaka/Kuroda/Nova/Phelps
 
 
Teixeira is still recovering from injury but nothing says that he's gonna miss the whole season. And last time I checked Ellsbury, McCann and Beltran can still hit. 
 
Orioles have the 2nd worst pitching in the division behind Toronto, that's putting a lot of stock in the Offense being just as good or better than it was last year, which will be hard to replicate especially with Machado likely out of the lineup to start the year.

 

[elcheato]

 
The last Orioles second round pick to acquire over a 3.0 WAR in his MLB career was Arthur Rhodes. Also, they could get a first round pick back for him by offering him a QO. Agree that it's a risky move, but the Orioles need to be risky. 

I hate that argument. Just because the Orioles haven't found talent in the 2nd round in recent memory, they should just get rid of them? The pick still has value. I'm not even saying Crux was a bad signing. Its low risk at 8 mill for one year, the draft pick compensation just makes it not nearly as good. Not having a first and second round pick is rough, it hurts the farm system, a lot.

Hey, if the Orioles want to go for it, more power to them, but they're sacrificing the future and depending on a pitcher who has been horrible for 2 1/2 out of his last 3 seasons.

As someone who watched Ubaldo all year, I'll say he was impressive, but I would not have gone that much on him and given up a first round pick.

Personally, I like this new compensation system. The restrictions have allowed not as marketable clubs to make splashes in free agency the last two years (Indians & Orioles). It drove down prices and made impact players affordable. It's working

 

[mgh1985]

Jimenez/Tillman/Chen/Norris/Gonzalez is not better than CC/Tanaka/Kuroda/Nova/Phelps
 
 
Teixeira is still recovering from injury but nothing says that he's gonna miss the whole season. And last time I checked Ellsbury, McCann and Beltran can still hit. 
 
Orioles have the 2nd worst pitching in the division behind Toronto, that's putting a lot of stock in the Offense being just as good or better than it was last year, which will be hard to replicate especially with Machado likely out of the lineup to start the year.

 
If CC doesn't rebound from last sesaon, their rotations are about equal. You're putting too much faith in Tanaka- he's a wild card. 
 
Regarding Tex, he probably won't be out for season, but the Yankees have every right to be very concerned: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303277704579347272976940420?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303277704579347272976940420.html
 
Not to mention the Yankees still have some major problems, such as second base, shortstop, and third base. McCann is very good, won't deny that. Ellsbury, when healthy, is good, but he hasn't been the same since 2011. Beltran is a solid DH, but I'm not sure if I'd trust him to play the outfield at this point. Definitely starting to decline. Brian Roberts is an average second baseman if healthy, but I'll be shocked if he plays over 130 games this season. The Yankees are banking on guys with injury histories staying healthy. That's usually not a good sign.
 
The Rays and Red Sox have better rotations on paper than the Orioles. But the Orioles have a significantly better lineup than the Rays, and a slightly better lineup than the Red Sox. 

 

[mgh1985]

I hate that argument. Just because the Orioles haven't found talent in the 2nd round in recent memory, they should just get rid of them? The pick still has value. I'm not even saying Crux was a bad signing. Its low risk at 8 mill for one year, the draft pick compensation just makes it not nearly as good. Not having a first and second round pick is rough, it hurts the farm system, a lot.

Hey, if the Orioles want to go for it, more power to them, but they're sacrificing the future and depending on a pitcher who has been horrible for 2 1/2 out of his last 3 seasons.

As someone who watched Ubaldo all year, I'll say he was impressive, but I would not have gone that much on him and given up a first round pick.

Personally, I like this new compensation system. The restrictions have allowed not as marketable clubs to make splashes in free agency the last two years (Indians & Orioles). It drove down prices and made impact players affordable. It's working

 
The Orioles have a small window to compete. After 2015, they're losing either (or potentially both) Matt Wieters or Chris Davis. I won't deny that Ubaldo is a huge risk. But I think Ubaldo has the makeup to succeed in Baltimore- forces a lot of ground balls. Also, I'd say he's been horrible 2 out of his last 3 seasons. Take out 2 bad April starts, his ERA would have been below 3. 2011 can be contributed to horrible luck- 3.67 FIP that season and an abnormally high BABIP. No defending his 2012 season, but he started pitching like the old Ubaldo in 2013. Glad the Orioles are taking smart risks. They are needed to compete.
 
I don't think there's a perfect compensation system, but I agree with you. 

 

[elcheato]

I'm an advanced metric guy all the way, but I don't have much regard for FIP when you're walking EVERYONE and have no control. His "luck" would be better if he wasn't constantly putting guys on base. You can't play with fire as much as he was the last few years. Had better control last year, and I think I had to do with a slight mechanical adjustment. We'll see if it continues without Mickey Callaway (Indians pitching coach)

 

[Teagz]

Every single athlete coming back from injury has their doubts that's not something new.
 
 
Even if CC pitches how he did last year he'd still be the best Starter on the O's. And I don't think you're giving Tanaka enough credit. While every player coming from overseas brings some question marks, all reports coming out on Tanaka from Yankees camp and from scouts have been positive. He might struggle the first few months but he's good enough to make adjustments and get better.
 
You're overvaluing offense. Great offenses don't win in the playoffs, to win you need good starting pitching, a lock down closer, defense, and timely hitting. That's how the Giants won two championships. Way too often offense goes stagnant, you have to have a good pitching staff to fall back on.

 

[mgh1985]

Every single athlete coming back from injury has their doubts that's not something new.
 
 
Even if CC pitches how he did last year he'd still be the best Starter on the O's. And I don't think you're giving Tanaka enough credit. While every player coming from overseas brings some question marks, all reports coming out on Tanaka from Yankees camp and from scouts have been positive. He might struggle the first few months but he's good enough to make adjustments and get better.
 
You're overvaluing offense. Great offenses don't win in the playoffs, to win you need good starting pitching, a lock down closer, defense, and timely hitting. That's how the Giants won two championships. Way too often offense goes stagnant, you have to have a good pitching staff to fall back on.

 
Disagree. Tillman, Jimenez, Chen, and Gonzalez are all be better than CC's 4.78 ERA. And I can't really give Tanaka any credit when he hasn't thrown any pitches in the majors. For all I know, he could be better than Yu Darvish, or he could be Dice-K. I'm not saying he won't be good, I'm just saying it's extremely hard to predict how he will do. From what I've seen, he's ridiculous. I also thought that when I saw video of Dice-K in Japan. So who knows. I look forward to watching him pitch.
 
Agree with you as far as what wins in the playoffs, but finding a lock down closer is easier than you think. You should know that as a Tigers fan, haha. I don't think the Orioles or the Yankees have the rotation to win in the playoffs this year.

 

[snipezo]

1 yr/8mil isn't so bad for a DH (they better slot him in there because he's a disaster waiting to happen in the outfield). He had a .359 wOBA FWIW. Still an average player though.

 

[mgh1985]

1 yr/8mil isn't so bad for a DH (they better slot him in there because he's a disaster waiting to happen in the outfield). He had a .359 wOBA FWIW. Still an average player though.

 
Cruz's defense isn't as bad as most people think. FWIW, he has a better UZR rating than Nick Markakis over the past two years. I think Cruz gets that negative reputation as a fielder because of Game 6 of the 2011 World Series. I think Cruz will see time as an outfielder and as a DH. All depends on how much the Orioles value David Lough. 

 

[snipezo]

He's had hammy issues for a while, even on the juice. I can't imagine his defense getting any better. He'll hit his fair share of homers playing in camden though.

 

[mgh1985]

He's had hammy issues for a while, even on the juice. I can't imagine his defense getting any better. He'll hit his fair share of homers playing in camden though.

 
Fair point, though he has been healthy the past two seasons. 

 

[Thomas-Panda-Saxby]

Average is bad? And makes him suck? Gawd damn