Nola's 2016 NBA Mock - V4

[jonathanlambert33]

 
* #3 - The Celtics had a lot of options here, Dunn, Chriss, Hield, Murray, etc.  Ultimately adding Dunn to the roster was too hard to pass up, as he filled a number of boxes.  Defensive ability, pure PG, and ability to play now amongst them.
 
* #8 - This is probably worst case scenario for Sacramento.  They're all in on making the playoffs after a decade long absence and they desperately wanted a guy who could help them accomplish that immediately.  That guy doesn't seem to be on the board here, so they are left reaching for potential.
 
* #10 - Michael Carter-Williams clearly is not the PG the Bucks need, so they look for a home run pick potential wise with Dejounte Murray here.
 
* #12 - The Jazz have a pretty strong roster of talented young players, so they are able to look at BPA at this pick.  Korkmaz may not come over this year, but the Jazz can afford to wait.
 
* #14 - Maybe a bit of a surprise here, but the Bulls are looking at possibly losing Joakim Noah, who hasn't been exactly reliable regardless, and Pau Gasol isn't a young buck.  Poeltl is probably better than the 14th overall pick, but in a league that true centers aren't as valuable as they once were Poeltl will likely take a bit of a fall.
 
* #15 - The Nuggets two big centers took guys like Zizic and Zubac out of the equation here, making Malachi Richardson and Deyonta Davis the two guys who kind of stood out here.  The Nuggets took Bender at #7, so Richardson is the pick by default.
 
* #19 - With three picks in the first 19, the Nuggets aren't likely to select three guys who will come in and play immediately.  They're likely to swing for the fences with a guy who they can essentially redshirt for a year, or few.  
 
* #23 - Ellenson's free fall stops here at #23.  The question marks about how good of an in game shooter he is, and more importantly, his defensive ability in the NBA played a huge part in this drop.  But Boston gets excellent value here.
 
* #29 - There are two guys who stand out to me that are still available.  Taurean Prince, and the guy I ultimately went with, Ivaca Zubac.  I believe the Spurs would be thrilled to add a prospect like Zubac so late in the draft.

 

[bosoxlover12]

Very much disagree with the #3 pick.
 
 
Our best player is Isaiah Thomas. By far. Averaging 22ppg, he is the only player on the team that can create his own shot. The main reason we lost the series vs ATL was because Isaiah was the only scorer, and they just continuously trapped and doubled him.
 
So you suggest that with the third pick we draft a ball dominant PG that can't shoot well? We're a team that is trying to stockpile assets in an effort to become a contender, and drafting Dunn is a step backwards. He's a great prospect, but he doesn't fit on this Boston team in the direction we are going (hence why he declined workouts with the Celtics because he wants to be the PG on his team.

 

[jonathanlambert33]

You're a team who wants to contend for a title and your best player is 5'9 and can't play a lick of defense.  Let that sink in.  At some point you have to start acquiring players who can actually push you in that direction, and Thomas isn't going to do that.  Hence why he's likely available.  You have a very good pure PG who is a hell of a defender as well.  He would fit very nicely with the guys who would likely stick around once the Celtics go all in on a title run.  It would be a great pick.
 
I'd also have to heavily disagree that he has to have the ball in his hands to be effective.  He's actually a very capable shooter in spot up situations, and has improved his three point percentages throughout his college career in general, and he's quick and effective attacking closeouts.  As well as everything that goes along with his ability to score and pass once putting the ball on the floor.

 

[Stray32]

Still fairly confident the Pistons will not pick Valentine no matter what

 

[jonathanlambert33]

I'd pick Denzel higher than that to be honest.  I think a lot of his weaknesses aren't all that important.

 

[Stray32]

I'd pick Denzel higher than that to be honest.  I think a lot of his weaknesses aren't all that important.

I'm not saying that's bad value for him, even a little bit, but it's a really poor fit given that they already have as many wings (who were contributors last year or in the case of Meeks are expected to be) as they can possibly carry on the roster, including their starting SG and two starting SFs and a 6th man

 

[jonathanlambert33]

I actually think he'd be a good fit.  I don't think the Pistons are all that deep on the wings, you essentially have KCP and Stanley Johnson.  Tobias almost exclusively played the four once he arrived in Detroit, and I understand they're paying Meeks a lot but he really wasn't even that good his first season in Detroit.  I look at it as KCP and Stanley are your two only real reliable rotation wings.  Denzel on the other hand, can come in and play either swing position immediately, and his shooting and passing would be a sizable asset to the Pistons.

 

[Pugz]

pistons got bullock and hillard involved in the game more towards the end of the season, and will likely use them more next season. id guess meeks to be as good as gone, or a good role player for us. we cant afford to draft another wing. once meeks is gone, we'll still have two young players svg values, and of course, we have kcp and stanley

 

[Stray32]

I actually think he'd be a good fit.  I don't think the Pistons are all that deep on the wings, you essentially have KCP and Stanley Johnson.  Tobias almost exclusively played the four once he arrived in Detroit, and I understand they're paying Meeks a lot but he really wasn't even that good his first season in Detroit.  I look at it as KCP and Stanley are your two only real reliable rotation wings.  Denzel on the other hand, can come in and play either swing position immediately, and his shooting and passing would be a sizable asset to the Pistons.

KCP is the SG, Morris who you didn't mention is the SF, Tobias Harris played the PF basically out of necessity but not sure that's his best position going forward, and then Stanley off the bench at SG-SF. And then Meeks, and Reggie Bullock who SVG raved about all year and played really well when he got time and then also Darrun Hilliard. Point is they have absolutely zero need, now or in the future, for a wing and drafting one would mean cutting one of the above players. Imo they'll draft just about anyone else (including stash the pick or trade it) before they draft Valentine

 

[jonathanlambert33]

I did leave out Morris, my fault.  I think Harris played the four because that's his more natural position, personally.  It's where he would excel the most.
 
But still, that leaves you with three guys between two positions.  I'm not buying into Meeks, Bullock, or Hilliard.  I think lets be completely honest, do you really want Marcus Morris playing 36 minutes a night?  I know I wouldn't.  Stanley Johnson, honestly, was pretty bad last season, especially offensively.  Then KCP is KCP, high volume SG who really isn't good enough to be playing 37 minutes a night.
 
You had two guys, who in saying they are average at best is being polite, eating up 76% of the minutes on the wing.  
 
The Pistons absolutely have a need at wing.

 

[Stray32]

lol agree to strongly disagree with basically that entire post
 
Aside from the Pistons pick, good mock, I could see almost all of these picks possibly happening although I do think 9 is a little high for Sabonis and I'm not sure about the Celtics taking Ellenson especially after taking Davis

 

[jonathanlambert33]

What would you disagree with?  I can't see anyone disagreeing that guys like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris should be taking up 76% of a teams wing minutes unless they're just being homers.  I understand they're your team, but at least be objective.  A team like Indiana, who had a infinitely better wing duo, had their guys making up 72% of the minutes.  That's understandable, but not a duo like KCP and Morris at 76%.
 
Do you disagree that neither of those guys are above average players?  Because that isn't the case either.

 

[Stray32]

What would you disagree with?  I can't see anyone disagreeing that guys like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris should be taking up 76% of a teams wing minutes unless they're just being homers.  I understand they're your team, but at least be objective.  A team like Indiana, who had a infinitely better wing duo, had their guys making up 72% of the minutes.  That's understandable, but not a duo like KCP and Morris at 76%.
 
Do you disagree that neither of those guys are above average players?  Because that isn't the case either.

Wasn't trying to hijack this thread but alright:
1- I think if Morris wasn't on the team/was injured SVG would start Tobias at SF and find a new starting PF not the other way around
2- KCP did have more volume than you'd want from him especially on that 3pt% but he's only starting to learn how to shoot from there and good from mid-range now, he's only 23, and oh btw he's already a great defender. So yeah he's an above average player even before you consider the fact that he's still getting better
3- Stanley Johnson just turned 20, he shot the ball terribly but again don't think that will be the norm going forwards and plays with a ton of energy and strong defense, I think he gave them generally what they expected from his rookie year (worse %s which he will have to fix)
4- So they have clear current starters, who are incredibly young (Tobias is also 23, Morris is 26) and likely will keep their roles for the foreseeable future, meaning there isn't much of a role now or in the future for Valentine. Even before you consider that they'd have cut one of their other wings, or consider that they have a much larger need for a big man (a PF and/or a backup C) and a backup PG.

 

[AiRuPtHeRe]

Kris Dunn when you already have someone very similar to him in Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier? How on earth do you see IT, Smart, Bradley, Rozier and Dunn getting playing time? Plus, Kris Dunn saying he doesn't want to play for Boston is already a shitty ass attitude and Stevens won't want that. He should embrace having the chance to even possibly play in Boston.
 
Feel like the Suns can get Chriss or someone with a similar skill set at 13.

 

[jonathanlambert33]

Wasn't trying to hijack this thread but alright:
1- I think if Morris wasn't on the team/was injured SVG would start Tobias at SF and find a new starting PF not the other way around
2- KCP did have more volume than you'd want from him especially on that 3pt% but he's only starting to learn how to shoot from there and good from mid-range now, he's only 23, and oh btw he's already a great defender. So yeah he's an above average player even before you consider the fact that he's still getting better
3- Stanley Johnson just turned 20, he shot the ball terribly but again don't think that will be the norm going forwards and plays with a ton of energy and strong defense, I think he gave them generally what they expected from his rookie year (worse %s which he will have to fix)
4- So they have clear current starters, who are incredibly young (Tobias is also 23, Morris is 26) and likely will keep their roles for the foreseeable future, meaning there isn't much of a role now or in the future for Valentine. Even before you consider that they'd have cut one of their other wings, or consider that they have a much larger need for a big man (a PF and/or a backup C) and a backup PG.

 
1. But he is, and seems to be for the foreseeable future.
2. I'm sorry but KCP is not an above average player in even an alternate universe.  I'm not trying to be an asshole, but you have to be a homer to think that.  I'm sure the other Piston fans on this site would back me up on this, he's a promising young player but he's nowhere near above average at his position right now.  I'd also say he's a developing defender, certainly not a great defender yet.  Still makes a lot of the mistakes you expect a young player to make.  He's still a pretty poor defender in some areas, like defending the ball in the PnR for example, where he ranked in the 20th percentile.  I don't know how you can say a guy who is 48th among SG's in TS% (meaning he is real inefficient) and 19th in DRPM is above average, but that's just me.
3. I like Stanley.
4. They do have clear current starters, but do you really want to see Marcus Morris have a starting role say when the Pistons are in their prime?  I wouldn't, I'd aim a little higher than that at the three.  But you still have not answered my first question, do you really think/want KCP and Morris to lead the league in minutes on the wing?  76% of the teams minutes, even if they reach their potential (Morris likely is who he is at this point), that is way to many minutes for the quality of players they are/will be.  You're just really overrating your team.  They absolutely still have a need for one more wing in the rotation, and Denzel would give them a reliable bench player in the rotation for the foreseeable future.
 
KCP will continue to develop, Morris will see his minutes dip as Stanley Johnson develops, and you'll have one more spot in the rotation for another wing.  You're likely looking at those three taking up 80 or so minutes on the wing a night two or three years from now, if Morris is even on the team, still leaving 16 or more minutes for another wing.
 

Kris Dunn when you already have someone very similar to him in Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier? How on earth do you see IT, Smart, Bradley, Rozier and Dunn getting playing time? Plus, Kris Dunn saying he doesn't want to play for Boston is already a shitty ass attitude and Stevens won't want that. He should embrace having the chance to even possibly play in Boston.
 
Feel like the Suns can get Chriss or someone with a similar skill set at 13.

 
I'm sorry but the similarities between Dunn and Smart stop with the fact that they both can two positions and they're good defenders.  Other than that, they're very different.  You can't pass on Kris Dunn just because you have Marcus Smart.  Dunn is a better prospect in a multitude of ways, and Marcus Smart through two years has failed to really establish himself in the league.  Same goes for Terry Rozier, just 100x more.
 
I've already said I don't see Isaiah Thomas in the Celtics long term plans if they want to win a title.  Smart and Rozier, while both very young, have not carved their spots out in the permanent rotation for years to come, because of the way they've played.  A Dunn/Bradley backcourt would have the highest defensive potential in the NBA.

 

[Pugz]

i agree with most of what you just said. i think we've all discussed that about kcp. im more of a fan of marcus than ever. he really won me over last year but i dont think he even played up to his full potential. he got iso'd a lot and i think he can do more this season.

 

[jonathanlambert33]

I mean you know me, I'm as big as a fan of KCP as anyone, loved him coming out (mocked him to the Pels on more than one occasion I believe), but he's not an above average player in the NBA. He very well may be one day, but he hasn't been up to this point.

My problem with Morris is that he's one of those middle guys, he's not really a three, he's not really a four. You play him at either position and teams can really attack him. He's more of a matchup guy, imo.

 

[Pugz]

i agree. kcp brings it in defense hut still gets lost. i like his footwork more than anything. he moves his feet well and his instincts are pretty good. hes quick to get to the ball but gets caught up on screens a lot. doesnt roll off as quick as he should. i think K his intensity is why his offense is lacking. his form looks good, he just doesnt get enough down. he doesnt move around on offense enough either, but i think thats because he puts so much effort into defense. hes a smart player on both ends but leaves a lot to be desired.

if we could upgrade that spot, id put him on the bench.

i agree with marcus too. he has a big enough body to play against fours but he comes up too short at that position to play it full time. i think hed be a great sixth man.

 

[Stray32]

I'm not saying I want that duo to lead the league in minutes I'm just saying that remaining 10-16 minutes can and almost certainly will be handled by backups (the three they have now, likely veterans from free agency in the future) not another first-round pick that was the point I was making. I think SVG has enough faith in them not to make a pick that would require cutting a current contributor, while they have bigger needs at other spots (basically every other spot).
 
As far as Tobias goes you're right that he's there right now but I was saying that as a counter to "that's his more natural position" - I think given an opening at both SVG would play him at SF over PF. And I think the most likely move if a big signing is made at all this year will be a PF like Ryan Anderson which would send Tobias (or perhaps Morris) to the bench as a combo forward and also fill up those remaining 10-16 minutes.
 
As for KCP I think his defense is good enough now that he's being recognized for it. He got 3 first-team votes for All-Defense, 24 second-team votes. He held Westbrook to 5 for 14 shooting with 11 turnovers, one of many examples of him guarding the opponent's best perimeter scorer all night (whether it's someone like Westbrook or Korver/Redick) and doing a great job. I don't have the greatest knowledge yet of advanced defensive stats like I do for offensive ones (or for baseball) but KCP is 13th among guards (or guard/forwards) in FG% points different with a -1.7% (lower than opponent's normal FG%) with opponents shooting only 42% against him and again that comes while consistently drawing the toughest assignments. Watching him you can tell that he's a tough defender although you were right that pick and roll is currently the weak area; I still think he'll keep getting better though especially since he's only 23. I already conceded that he's not a good enough shooter yet but his mid-range shooting is markedly improved from his rookie year so I feel good about his ability to improve his shooting from deep as well.

 

[bosoxlover12]

I'm sorry but the similarities between Dunn and Smart stop with the fact that they both can two positions and they're good defenders.  Other than that, they're very different.  You can't pass on Kris Dunn just because you have Marcus Smart.  Dunn is a better prospect in a multitude of ways, and Marcus Smart through two years has failed to really establish himself in the league.  Same goes for Terry Rozier, just 100x more.
 
I've already said I don't see Isaiah Thomas in the Celtics long term plans if they want to win a title. Smart and Rozier, while both very young, have not carved their spots out in the permanent rotation for years to come, because of the way they've played.  A Dunn/Bradley backcourt would have the highest defensive potential in the NBA.

I'm sorry, but you haven't watched nearly enough Celtics games (if any, at all) to make that statement.

Look, I've been one to over-exaggerate the Celtics for a few years now. Whether it's about Smart, or Olynyk, or Sullinger -- I've probably overrated them at times (although y'all here don't understand Smart's dev track but that's for another time)

But you are dead wrong on the Isaiah Thomas aspect. You don't watch any of our games -- you just assume that because he's 5'9" that he's literally useless defensively and that he's average at best, and that is just so not true.

The Celtics were a below .500 team when we acquired Thomas at the trade deadline, and since then (Feb 2015-April 2016) the Celtics have had (tied for) the 2nd best record in the Eastern Conference. And Isaiah is absolutely the reason for that. His defense isn't worldly, obviously, but he's actually really solid at contesting shots at his height. We hide him when we can (so does GS and Steph and CLE and Kyrie) but he's not a negative defender on the court. Not really a positive either, but just very average.

Combine that with being one of the best scorers of the pick and roll (your PPP stats will show that) and his solid 3pt shooting, and he's someone that is not being moved. I don't know why someone who hasn't watched a single game (or if you have, very minimal) is saying the Celtics are best off at rebuilding again by drafting a non-scoring PG and to move the only player on the team that can create a shot. We did the rebuild, and we're done with that. This isn't the Celtics pick, this is the Brooklyn pick. The Celtics have the #23 overall selection, meaning they were the 7th best team in the NBA. With the large cap space and mostly static roster movement so far, all signs point to Boston being better this coming season. But trading away Isaiah does not achieve that goal in the slightest. He might not be part of our plans in three years, but trade him then. Moving him for Dunn does not further this team in any aspect, whatsoever. By the time Dunn is the player you suggest him to be, Bradley and Crowder's contracts are going to be up and they'll be gone most likely. We have 3 guys on 2-3 year deals making below $8M annually, and we have the assets from the Nets (#3 pick this year and their next two 1sts as well) -- the goal of this team is to do as well as possible thru 2018, and if it doesn't work, then we can kickstart the rebuild with the young players from those picks. There is no need to become the Sixers (which in my mind moving Thomas for Dunn is going in that direction)