MLB Betting Picks

[Donkey]

I've been working on a system for MLB betting and I've done research on a lot of different ways to go about it. Obviously you can look at trends etc. That's a great way. But as many successful bettors have done with baseball, I'm going to be going off of the lineups everyday and predicting the production of each player based on the pitcher they are facing. It's a combination of team stats, batting predictions and pitching predictions. There's a lot I'm putting into it. The biggest step is going to be figuring out exactly how much and where to place my money. I am going to try and focus on the underdogs in baseball though because that's where the profit is. A lot of underdogs are going to win in baseball, you just need to predict who has the best chance to win. Other bets can be good too but right now I'll have more units going towards the underdogs.
 
I also want to apply my score predictions to the over/under for the games, I may or may not need to adjust it as a whole up or down to hit the sweet spot so that's a pure test right now.
 
I'm going to be posting the raw predictions too so if anyone wants to play with the numbers I have and work with me on this anyone is welcome to.
 
MLB Lines: http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/las-vegas/?s=734
MLB Lineups: http://www.baseballpress.com/lineups/2017-06-24
 
6/24/17 (Money Line)
Rangers +145 (3 to 4.35 units)
White Sox -103 (1 to 0.97 units)
Royals +100 (2 to 2 units)
Rays -140 (1 to 0.71 units)
Marlins +145 (3 to 4.35 units)
Brewers -104 (1 to 0.96 units)
Angels +155 (2 to 3.1 units)
Rockies +220 (1 to 2.2 units)
 
6/24/17 (Totals)
Orioles/Rays Under 9 -105 (1 to 0.95 units)
Twins/Indians Over 9 -115 (1 to 0.87 units)
Mets/Giants Over 7.5 -115 (1 to 0.87 units)
Rockies/Dodgers Over 7 -115 (1 to 0.87 units)
Tigers/Padres Over 8.5 -115 (3 to 2.61 units)
Phillies/Diamondbacks Under 9.5 +100 (1 to 1 Units)
 
Raw Data
V Runs Guess Odds Real Odds Guess H Runs Guess Odds Real Odds Guess Total Real Total Guess
TEX 6.33 145 -179 NYY 5.4 -160 179 11 11.73
OAK 3.64 -107 342 CHW 5.96 -103 -342 10.5 9.59
TOR 3.47 -110 249 KCR 4.68 100 -249 9 8.15
CIN 5.17 133 #N/A WSN #N/A -143 #N/A 10 #N/A
BAL 3.14 130 294 TBR 4.66 -140 -294 9 7.8
CHC 4.64 -155 -149 MIA 4.21 145 149 9 8.84
MIL 4.63 -104 -118 ATL 4.47 -106 118 9.5 9.1
MIN 4.19 210 265 CLE 5.85 -250 -265 9 10.04
LAA 4.88 155 -110 BOS 4.78 -175 110 9.5 9.66
NYM 4.52 -102 -160 SFG 4.01 -108 160 7.5 8.52
PIT 3.85 110 147 STL 4.24 -120 -147 8.5 8.09
COL 3.67 220 199 LAD 4.47 -260 -199 7 8.14
DET 6.28 108 -113 SDP 6.13 -118 113 8.5 12.41
HOU 4.79 -153 -182 SEA 4.06 143 182 9.5 8.84
PHI 3.34 200 228 ARI 4.32 -240 -228 9.5 7.66

 

[CameronCrazy06]

Very interested in following

 

[Rios15]

Interested I just don't understand how to read these numbers lol

 

[Donkey]

Interested I just don't understand how to read these numbers lol

 
I wish I knew (could) post it as a table. Let me see what I can do.

 

[Donkey]

Alright re-formatted the raw data. All the guesses are simply the calculations.
 
The Reds/Nationals game comes up as an error because Homer Bailey is making his first start of the year so there is no data on him and those are games to avoid.

 

[Donkey]

Results 6/24/17 (Money Line)
Rangers +145 (3 to 4.35 units)
White Sox -103 (1 to 0.97 units)
Royals +100 (2 to 2 units)
Rays -140 (1 to 0.71 units)
Marlins +145 (3 to 4.35 units)
Brewers -104 (1 to 0.96 units)
Angels +155 (2 to 3.1 units)
Rockies +220 (1 to 2.2 units)
 
Daily:
3-5 (+2.45 units)
 
Results 6/24/17 (Totals)
Orioles/Rays Under 9 -105 (1 to 0.95 units)
Twins/Indians Over 9 -115 (1 to 0.87 units)
Mets/Giants Over 7.5 -115 (1 to 0.87 units)
Rockies/Dodgers Over 7 -115 (1 to 0.87 units)
Tigers/Padres Over 8.5 -115 (3 to 2.61 units)
Phillies/Diamondbacks Under 9.5 +100 (1 to 1 Units)
 
Daily:
1-5 (-2.39 units)
 
Notes:
-In hindsight I actually had the Marlins game in wrong and would've avoided that game, would've made the day look better.
-The over/under is like the flip of what actually happened, if that trend continues then the fix is pretty easy. 
-As I noted at the beginning, the games with the favorable odds are clearly where the money is as, you don't need a winning overall record in baseball betting to be profitable, you just need to take advantage of the odds.
-For over/under bets I am currently betting on the ones where I am projecting a one run or greater difference in the over/under, and if it's a 1-2 run difference I would place one unit, a 2-3 run difference then two units and so on.

 

[JZsportswhiz]

This will be cool. I was a math major in college, going into actuarial science. It's all about using data to predict things like this. I'm excited to see how you do.
 
I very well might join in with you at some point.

 

[Donkey]

6/25/17 (Money Line)
Rays -160 (1 to 0.63 units)
Twins +150 (3 to 4.5 units)
Rangers +220 (1 to 2.2 units)
White Sox +117 (1 to 1.17 units)
Royals +125 (1 to 1.25 units)
Dodgers -170 (1 to 0.59 units)
 
6/25/17 (Totals)
Rangers/Yankees Under 10.5 -120 (1 to 0.83 units)
Mets/Giants Over 9 -115 (2 to 1.74 units)
Phillies/Diamondbacks Under 10 -110 (1 to 0.91 units)

Raw Data
V Runs Guess Odds Real Odds Guess H Runs Guess Odds Real Odds Guess Total Real Total Guess
BAL 4.06 150 321 TBR 6.37 -160 -321 9.5 10.43
CHC 4.26 -140 -147 MIA 3.88 130 147 9 8.15
MIN 5.14 150 -183 CLE 4.35 -165 183 9.5 9.5
CIN 4.6 140 127 WSN 4.85 -150 -127 10 9.45
LAA #N/A 150 #N/A BOS 4.09 -165 #N/A 11 #N/A
MIL 4.76 -105 121 ATL 4.96 -105 -121 9.5 9.72
TEX 4.24 220 164 NYY 4.83 -240 -164 10.5 9.07
OAK 4.31 -127 147 CHW 4.74 117 -147 10 9.05
TOR 4.66 -135 129 KCR 4.94 125 -129 9 9.6
NYM 5.07 142 190 SFG 6.08 -152 -190 9 11.15
COL 3.78 155 251 LAD 5.12 -170 -251 8.5 8.9
HOU 4.84 -103 153 SEA 5.38 -107 -153 10 10.23
PHI 3.99 165 164 ARI 4.53 -180 -164 10 8.52
DET 4.45 -120 -117 SDP 4.3 110 117 9 8.75

 

[Donkey]

This will be cool. I was a math major in college, going into actuarial science. It's all about using data to predict things like this. I'm excited to see how you do.
 
I very well might join in with you at some point.

 
I'm majoring in Math right now haha, with a concentration in probability/statistics.

 

[CameronCrazy06]

A little sketchy that you are posting these after the games start haha

 

[Donkey]

A little sketchy that you are posting these after the games start haha

 
Well Sunday is hard because of the early starts and I have church until 1pm so they've all started by the time I get back.

 

[Donkey]

Results 6/25/17 (Money Line)
Rays -160 (1 to 0.63 units)
Twins +150 (3 to 4.5 units)
Rangers +220 (1 to 2.2 units)
White Sox +117 (1 to 1.17 units)
Royals +125 (1 to 1.25 units)
Dodgers -170 (1 to 0.59 units)
 
Daily:
3-3 (+4.29 units)
 
Overall:
3-5 (+6.75 units)
 
Results 6/25/17 (Totals)
Rangers/Yankees Under 10.5 -120 (1 to 0.83 units)
Mets/Giants Over 9 -115 (2 to 1.74 units)
Phillies/Diamondbacks Under 10 -110 (1 to 0.91 units)
 
Daily:
2-1 (+1.65 units)
 
Overall:
3-6 (-0.74 units)
 
Notes:
-There is no trend of the over/under yet. It's definitely either not applicable with the information I'm using or it needs a bit of tweaking. We'll see in the coming days but the ones for more units are hitting more without a doubt.
-The value bets are still where the profit margin is on the money lines. I might need to cut down on some of the single unit plays because they are doing more harm then good.

 

[JZsportswhiz]

Awesome stuff. You are going to need a much larger sample size than 1 or 2 days. More than 1 or 2 weeks or even 1 or 2 months to truly get a sample size worthy of analyzing. Need the law of averages to play itself out. Is there any way to post tables in here? Would be nice to have that because the raw data is hard to make sense of when the columns don't line up

 

[Donkey]

Awesome stuff. You are going to need a much larger sample size than 1 or 2 days. More than 1 or 2 weeks or even 1 or 2 months to truly get a sample size worthy of analyzing. Need the law of averages to play itself out. Is there any way to post tables in here? Would be nice to have that because the raw data is hard to make sense of when the columns don't line up

 
I've been trying too but the only way I can figure out is in HTML mode and that doesn't work well.

 

[Donkey]

6/26/17 (Money Line)
Reds +123 (2 to 2.46 units)
Nationals -152 (1 to 0.66 units)
Twins +190 (1 to 1.9 units)
Rangers +160 (2 to 3.2 units)
Rockies +126 (3 to 3.78 units)
Angels +205 (2 to 4.1 units)
 
6/26/17 (Totals)
Cubs/Nationals Under 10 -110 (1 to 0.91 units)
Rockies/Giants Over 7.5 +100 (1 to 1 units)
 
Raw Data
V Runs Guess Odds Real Odds Guess H Runs Guess Odds Real Odds Guess Total Real Total Guess
PHI 3.23 190 252 ARI 4.39 -220 -252 8.5 7.63
CIN 4.67 123 -178 STL 3.99 -133 178 9 8.65
CHC 3.72 142 254 WSN 5.08 -152 -254 10 8.8
MIN 3.83 190 115 BOS 3.95 -210 -115 8 7.77
TEX 4.3 160 -121 CLE 4.13 -170 121 9 8.43
NYY 5.03 -160 -173 CHW 4.34 150 173 9.5 9.38
COL 4.83 126 -231 SFG 3.71 -136 231 7.5 8.54
LAA 4.56 205 143 LAD 4.96 -225 -143 9 9.52

 

[Donkey]

Results 6/26/17 (Money Line)
Reds +123 (2 to 2.46 units)
Nationals -152 (1 to 0.66 units)
Twins +190 (1 to 1.9 units)
Rangers +160 (2 to 3.2 units)
Rockies +126 (3 to 3.78 units)
Angels +205 (2 to 4.1 units)
 
Daily:
1-5 (-4.9 units)

Overall:
4-10 (+1.85 units)
 
Results 6/26/17 (Totals)
Cubs/Nationals Under 10 -110 (1 to 0.91 units)
Rockies/Giants Over 7.5 +100 (1 to 1 units)
 
Daily:
2-0 (+1.91 units)
 
Overall:
5-6 (+1.17 units)
 
Notes:
-First down day, no sense in overreacting. The Red pitcher went down with an injury in like the third inning so right off the bad so that was a bad start. Then the Rangers blew an enormous lead. Nothing you can do about it.
-The over/under is turning around nicely and could end up being profitable.

 

[Donkey]

6/27/17 (Money Line)
Nationals -175 (2 to 1.14 units)
Rays -105 (1 to 0.95 units)
Orioles +159 (1 to 1.59 units)
Tigers -145 (2 to 1.38 units)
Brewers +115 (2 to 2.3 units)
Marlins -155 (1 to 0.65 units)
Indians -170 (2 to 1.18 units)
Diamondbacks +110 (1 to 1.1 units)
Braves +109 (2 to 2.18 units)
Angels +190 (1 to 1.9 units)
Rockies -119 (1 to 0.84 units)
 
6/27/17 (Totals)
Orioles/Blue Jays Over 9.5 -115 (1 to 0.87 units)
Royals/Tigers Over 9.5 -105 (2 to 1.9 units)
Brewers/Reds Under 10.5 -110 (1 to 0.91 units)
Rangers/Indians Over 10.5 -105 (2 to 1.9 units)
Yankees/White Sox Over 8 -110 (1 to 0.91 units)
Cardinals/Diamondbacks Under 9 -110 (1 to 0.91 units)
 
Raw Data
V Runs Guess Odds Real Odds Guess H Runs Guess Odds Real Odds Guess Total Real Total Guess
CHC 3.27 155 306 WSN 4.97 -175 -306 7.5 8.25
TBR 5.09 -105 -209 PIT 4.09 -105 209 9 9.18
BAL 5.32 159 112 TOR 5.45 -169 -112 9.5 10.77
KCR 4.63 135 321 DET 7.25 -145 -321 9.5 11.88
MIL 4.79 115 -174 CIN 4.13 -125 174 10.5 8.93
MIN 4.4 185 172 BOS 5.08 -200 -172 10 9.48
NYM 4.26 145 219 MIA 5.41 -155 -219 9 9.67
TEX 5 160 307 CLE 7.62 -170 -307 10.5 12.62
NYY 4.93 -135 -186 CHW 4.15 125 186 8 9.08
OAK 4.57 140 166 HOU 5.22 -150 -166 9 9.79
STL 3.82 -120 126 ARI 4.02 110 -126 9 7.85
ATL 4.92 109 -348 SDP 2.96 -119 348 8 7.88
LAA 4.16 190 135 LAD 4.46 -210 -135 8 8.63
PHI 3.78 180 248 SEA 5.1 -200 -248 8.5 8.87
COL 5.15 -118 -230 SFG 3.97 108 230 9.5 9.13

 

[Donkey]

Results 6/27/17 (Money Line)
Nationals -175 (2 to 1.14 units)
Rays -105 (1 to 0.95 units)
Orioles +159 (1 to 1.59 units)
Tigers -145 (2 to 1.38 units)
Brewers +115 (2 to 2.3 units)
Marlins -155 (1 to 0.65 units)
Indians -170 (2 to 1.18 units)
Diamondbacks +110 (1 to 1.1 units)
Braves +109 (2 to 2.18 units)
Angels +190 (1 to 1.9 units)
Rockies -119 (1 to 0.84 units)
 
Daily:
7-4 (+2.99 units)
 
Overall:
11-14 (+4.84 units)
 
Results 6/27/17 (Totals)
Orioles/Blue Jays Over 9.5 -115 (1 to 0.87 units)
Royals/Tigers Over 9.5 -105 (2 to 1.9 units)
Brewers/Reds Under 10.5 -110 (1 to 0.91 units)
Rangers/Indians Over 10.5 -105 (2 to 1.9 units)
Yankees/White Sox Over 8 -110 (1 to 0.91 units)
Cardinals/Diamondbacks Under 9 -110 (1 to 0.91 units)
 
Daily:
0-6 (-8.0 units)

Overall:
5-12 (-6.83 units)
 
Notes:
-Bounce back on the money line bets. Day could've been a little better, couple of games were won late but being up almost 3 units is pretty solid.
-On a day where the underdog bets didn't really hit, the other ones carried me to a positive day which is always nice.
-The totals are still pretty wildly bad right now, but being able to lose that many could be great because it's as simple as flipping who you're betting with something like that. The odds are always close to even on those bets.

 

[Donkey]

I'm also going to throw in a tweak to my calculation.
 
I'm going to use FIP instead of ERA... I think it's a little more accurate then ERA because it takes away factors that the pitcher cannot control in his ERA. So it's not that much different but removes a bit of error.

 

[Donkey]

So doing more research into which bets to take, I'm exploring the possibility of using run lines, only for the underdogs though.
 
6/27/17
Nationals +125 (2 to 2.5 units)
Rays +180 (1 to 1.8 units)
Orioles +159 (1 to 1.59 units)
Tigers +144 (2 to 2.88 units)
Marlins +130 (1 to 1.3 units)
Braves +109 (2 to 2.18 units)
Diamondbacks +110 (1 to 1.1 units)
Brewers +115 (2 to 2.3 units)
Indians -170 (2 to 1.18 units)
Angels +190 (1 to 1.9 units)
Rockies -119 (1 to 0.84 units)
 
7-4 (+7.35 units)
 
6/26/17
Angels +205 (2 to 4.1 units)
Reds +123 (2 to 2.46 units)
Nationals -152 (1 to 0.66 units)
Twins +190 (1 to 1.9 units)
Rangers +160 (2 to 3.2 units)
Rockies +126 (3 to 3.78 units)
 
1-5 (-4.9 units)
 
6/25/17
Twins +150 (3 to 4.5 units)
Rangers +220 (1 to 2.2 units)
Dodgers +130 (1 to 1.3 units)
Rays -160 (1 to 0.63 units)
White Sox +117 (1 to 1.17 units)
Royals +125 (1 to 1.25 units)
 
3-3 (+5 units)
 
6/24/17
Rangers +145 (3 to 4.35 units)
Royals +100 (2 to 2 units)
Angels +155 (2 to 3.1 units)
White Sox -103 (1 to 0.97 units)
Rays -140 (1 to 0.71 units)
Marlins +145 (3 to 4.35 units)
Brewers -104 (1 to 0.96 units)
Rockies +220 (1 to 2.2 units)
 
3-5 (+2.45 units)
 
TOTAL
11-14 (+9.9 units)
 
With this small sample size the earnings are over doubled so I think this may be the way to go. When you think about it for the few games that are decided by one run that would end up being affected and causing me to lose a bet, I'm gaining that and more because of the huge difference in odds. So even though I didn't lose any correctly guessed games in this sample due to adding the -1.5 factor, I could have lost up to 5 that were single unit plays and still would've seen a profit.
 
So even though my sample size is small, because I am not relying on having a high winning percentage, it makes sense for me to be risking the 1.5 points on games where odds aren't in my favor.