Mike Trout with current contract or the first overall pick in 5 straight years?

[BrewCrewFan]

Here's an interesting question. If you could either have Mike Trout for the next 5 years at his current contract or 5 #1 overall picks straight which would it be?

 

[Big Papi]

Mike Trout for the next 5 years...how many times do 1st overall picks pan out? Trout wasn't even one.

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[Hopesfail]

With the position the Dodgers are in, Trout now. If they were in a rebuild, I would take the picks.

 

[BrewCrewFan]

Mike Trout for the next 5 years...how many times do 1st overall picks pan out? Trout wasn't even one.

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List of #1 picks since 2000:

2000: Adrian Gonzalez: 41.8 WAR
2001: Joe Mauer: 47.8 WAR
2002: Bryan Bullington: -0.2 WAR
2003: Delmon Young: 2.5 WAR
2004: Matt Bush: 0.0 WAR
2005: Justin Upton: 24.7 WAR
2006: Luke Hochevar: 2.8 WAR
2007: David Price: 29.0 WAR
2008: Tim Beckham: 0.0 WAR
2009: Stephen Strasburg: 14.5 WAR
2010: Bryce Harper: 19.8 WAR
2011: Gerrit Cole: 7.5 WAR
2012: Carlos Corriea: 4.1 WAR

Mike Trout: 37.9 WAR so far

There's been some obvious busts, but than you have players like Gonzalez, Mauer, Upton, and Price who have been very good ML players, and the last few drafts have been very good with Stras, Harper, Cole, and Corriea.

To me, it would depend on your situation, and if you're rebuilding or not, and how good you think your scouting dept is.

 

[PWNdroia]

Trout

 

[Big Papi]

List of #1 picks since 2000:

2000: Adrian Gonzalez: 41.8 WAR
2001: Joe Mauer: 47.8 WAR
2002: Bryan Bullington: -0.2 WAR
2003: Delmon Young: 2.5 WAR
2004: Matt Bush: 0.0 WAR
2005: Justin Upton: 24.7 WAR
2006: Luke Hochevar: 2.8 WAR
2007: David Price: 29.0 WAR
2008: Tim Beckham: 0.0 WAR
2009: Stephen Strasburg: 14.5 WAR
2010: Bryce Harper: 19.8 WAR
2011: Gerrit Cole: 7.5 WAR
2012: Carlos Corriea: 4.1 WAR

Mike Trout: 37.9 WAR so far

There's been some obvious busts, but than you have players like Gonzalez, Mauer, Upton, and Price who have been very good ML players, and the last few drafts have been very good with Stras, Harper, Cole, and Corriea.

To me, it would depend on your situation, and if you're rebuilding or not, and how good you think your scouting dept is.

Yeah...I'd take Trout over every single one of those. Good attempt on the argument, but first overalls are majority busts. Trout is arguably the best player in baseball.

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[BrewCrewFan]

Yeah...I'd take Trout over every single one of those. Good attempt on the argument, but first overalls are majority busts. Trout is arguably the best player in baseball.

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And what if you could hit on 3 of those 5 and potentially have Corriea, Cole, and Harper? It's all about scouting, and developing the players.

 

[Big Papi]

And what if you could hit on 3 of those 5 and potentially have Corriea, Cole, and Harper? It's all about scouting, and developing the players.

What are the chances of that truly happening though? I am having a realistic view, what are the true chances of your team developing a Correa, Cole, and Harper in three consecutive years? Not high I believe. Plus I would much rather have a guy that is already the best instead of three that could be great.

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[FearLessBeast]

Picks

 

[BrewCrewFan]

What are the chances of that truly happening though? I am having a realistic view, what are the true chances of your team developing a Correa, Cole, and Harper in three consecutive years? Not high I believe. Plus I would much rather have a guy that is already the best instead of three that could be great.

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8 out of those 13 people listed all have been above average ML players or well on their way of becoming a good player in the majors. That's over 60%. You wouldn't need to hit on them consecutively.

 

[Big Papi]

List of #1 picks since 2000:

2000: Adrian Gonzalez: 41.8 WAR - Great player, great selection.
2001: Joe Mauer: 47.8 WAR - starting to fizzle, should have been made 1B earlier. Great selection.
2002: Bryan Bullington: -0.2 WAR Nope.
2003: Delmon Young: 2.5 WAR sometimes clutch, often called lazy. Nope
2004: Matt Bush: 0.0 WAR Nope.
2005: Justin Upton: 24.7 WAR Now above average, one or two top seasons...would not want him 1st overall how he turned out.
2006: Luke Hochevar: 2.8 WAR Was drafted as SP...
2007: David Price: 29.0 WAR Great pick.
2008: Tim Beckham: 0.0 WAR Nope.
2009: Stephen Strasburg: 14.5 WAR Solid number 2, he's a fine first pick.
2010: Bryce Harper: 19.8 WAR If he keeps doing what he did last year, great pick.
2011: Gerrit Cole: 7.5 WAR He's been great so far.
2012: Carlos Corriea: 4.1 WAR jury still out on him, just one solid year so far.

Mike Trout: 37.9 WAR so far

So yes BCF, you are right...but that is just from the year 2000. Let's go even farther back and see the true percentage. I just feel like if you can get Pujols in the 13th round, I rather have Trout than 5 straight 1st overalls.

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[BrewCrewFan]

List of #1 picks since 2000:

2000: Adrian Gonzalez: 41.8 WAR - Great player, great selection.
2001: Joe Mauer: 47.8 WAR - starting to fizzle, should have been made 1B earlier. Great selection.
2002: Bryan Bullington: -0.2 WAR Nope.
2003: Delmon Young: 2.5 WAR sometimes clutch, often called lazy. Nope
2004: Matt Bush: 0.0 WAR Nope.
2005: Justin Upton: 24.7 WAR Now above average, one or two top seasons...would not want him 1st overall how he turned out.
2006: Luke Hochevar: 2.8 WAR Was drafted as SP...
2007: David Price: 29.0 WAR Great pick.
2008: Tim Beckham: 0.0 WAR Nope.
2009: Stephen Strasburg: 14.5 WAR Solid number 2, he's a fine first pick.
2010: Bryce Harper: 19.8 WAR If he keeps doing what he did last year, great pick.
2011: Gerrit Cole: 7.5 WAR He's been great so far.
2012: Carlos Corriea: 4.1 WAR jury still out on him, just one solid year so far.

Mike Trout: 37.9 WAR so far

So yes BCF, you are right...but that is just from the year 2000. Let's go even farther back and see the true percentage. I just feel like if you can get Pujols in the 13th round, I rather have Trout than 5 straight 1st overalls.

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1990: Chipper Jones: 85.0 WAR
1991: Brian Taylor: 0.0 WAR
1992: Phil Nevin: 15.8 WAR
1993: Alex Rodriguez: 113.8 WAR
1994: Paul Wislon: 2.2 WAR
1995: Darin Erstad; 32.3 WAR
1996: Kris Benson: 13.0 WAR
1997: Matt Anderson: -0.5 WAR
1998: Pat Burrell: 18.8 WAR
1999: Josh Hamilton: 28.1 WAR

Overall, you have A-Rod/Chipper as stars, and then you have solid players in Erstad/Burrell/Hamilton and the rest are busts.

 

[Big Papi]

1990: Chipper Jones: 85.0 WAR
1991: Brian Taylor: 0.0 WAR
1992: Phil Nevin: 15.8 WAR
1993: Alex Rodriguez: 113.8 WAR
1994: Paul Wislon: 2.2 WAR
1995: Darin Erstad; 32.3 WAR
1996: Kris Benson: 13.0 WAR
1997: Matt Anderson: -0.5 WAR
1998: Pat Burrell: 18.8 WAR
1999: Josh Hamilton: 28.1 WAR

Overall, you have A-Rod/Chipper as stars, and then you have solid players in Erstad/Burrell/Hamilton and the rest are busts.

Kinda where I'm getting at. You might hit the jackpot and get 5 all-stars/future hall of famers, but are those odds really that good? Baseball is a crapshoot with prospects, I'll take Trout over Nomar Mazara and Joe Gallo every day of the week.

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[BrewCrewFan]

Kinda where I'm getting at. You might hit the jackpot and get 5 all-stars/future hall of famers, but are those odds really that good? Baseball is a crapshoot with prospects, I'll take Trout over Nomar Mazara and Joe Gallo every day of the week.

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If you were in the Brewers/Phillies/Padres/Braves spot you would take Trout over 5 #1 picks straight? Why would rebuilding teams really need a guy making 30 M per year when they won't be in contention to win over the next several seasons?

 

[Big Papi]

If you were in the Brewers/Phillies/Padres/Braves spot you would take Trout over 5 #1 picks straight? Why would rebuilding teams really need a guy making 30 M per year when they won't be in contention to win over the next several seasons?

His contract is closer to 20 mil than 30, 24.numbers a year. And now if we're being specific, if I'm the Padres, yes. Phillies, yes. Braves, no. Padres and Phillies could use someone like Trout who is under contract cheap for a megastar for the next 6 years, the Braves need a Jesus Christ to salvage them. If you are rebuilding, get Trout to lead the way for the next 6 years, or trade him for established pieces to speed up the rebuilding process.

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[semperty]

I thought about this for about 30 seconds, and then picked the draft picks. For starters, in 2018 Trout will account for about 25% of the Cards payroll ($34m). That's just tough to deal with.

Second of all, the last five first rounders produced 21.6 WAR to Trout's 9.0 WAR - and that's with one of them adding literally no value. Obviously you can't expect that every year, but you'd have to expect your #1 pick to be a below average player in order to be of equal production to Trout - for literally about 3% of the cost.

 

[BrewCrewFan]

I thought about this for about 30 seconds, and then picked the draft picks. For starters, in 2018 Trout will account for about 25% of the Cards payroll ($34m). That's just tough to deal with.

Second of all, the last five first rounders produced 21.6 WAR to Trout's 9.0 WAR - and that's with one of them adding literally no value. Obviously you can't expect that every year, but you'd have to expect your #1 pick to be a below average player in order to be of equal production to Trout - for literally about 3% of the cost.

You also can't expect every draft pick to turn into an Corriea/Harper/Strasburg/Cole. There's a decent chance at least one or two of the picks will be bust.

Still, I would take three potential Corriea/Harper over Trout any day of the week, especially at the contract Trout has right now.

 

[semperty]

You also can't expect every draft pick to turn into an Corriea/Harper/Strasburg/Cole. There's a decent chance at least one or two of the picks will be bust.

Still, I would take three potential Corriea/Harper over Trout any day of the week, especially at the contract Trout has right now.

You can't expect all four, but you can expect them to turn into above average players. And five above average players produce more than Trout.

 

[catman]

In 5 years, Trout will likely command $35-40MM/year and the prospects will still be under $1M/year each. With the allocation of salary being so one-sided, I have to go with the prospects. One can buy stats without hamstringing your franchise. The Twins did that with Mauer and they have not been particularly good since they signed that deal.