Justin Upton to Detroit

[Big Papi]

9:19pm: SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Upton also receives a partial no-trade clause as part of the deal, though the number of teams to which he can block a deal remains unknown.

8:55pm: Upton will indeed receive an opt-out clause, Rosenthal reports (via Twitter). He’ll be able to re-enter the open market after the second year of the deal, meaning he could again test the market heading into his age-30 season.

8:51pm: Nightengale reports (via Twitter) that Upton will receive $132.75MM in total — an average annual value of $22.125MM — over the life of his six-year deal. It’s unclear at this point if there is an opt-out clause or no-trade protection with the deal, though Upton’s age would seem to make him a candidate for an opt-out.

8:41pm: Upton’s contract is expected to be in the $125MM range, reports Rosenthal (Twitter link).

8:37pm: The Tigers and outfielder Justin Upton are in agreement on a six-year contract, pending a physical, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports. Jon Heyman first tweeted that Upton was getting a long-term deal from the Tigers. Ken Rosenthal tweeted that the two sides were in talks and was the first to mention the six-year term (Twitter link). The 28-year-old Upton is a client of Reynolds Sports Management.

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Upton will join what was an already imposing middle-of-the-order grouping in Detroit, adding another right-handed bat to join the likes of Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler and the switch-hitting Victor Martinez. That quintet should give opposing left-handed pitcher fits, though each is plenty formidable against right-handed pitching as well. Across the past three seasons, which he’s split between the Braves and Padres, Upton has batted .262/.344/.470 and averaged 27 home runs per season. While he’s not a standout defensive player in the outfield, he’s a solid enough defender in left. His addition should lead to either a Cameron Maybin/Anthony Gose platoon in center field or an outfield alignment of Upton-Maybin-Martinez (J.D., that is), with Gose serving as a fourth outfielder. His signing and the presence of Martinez on the other corner have effectively blocked prospects Tyler Collins and Steven Moya for the foreseeable future.

By signing Upton, the Tigers will surrender their second draft pick of the offseason. Detroit’s No. 9 overall selection is protected under the collective bargaining agreement, but the team already parted with its second-round pick to add right-hander Jordan Zimmermann to the rotation, so they’ll forfeit their third-round pick — currently projected to be the 84th in the draft, per Baseball America — to sign Upton. The Padres, who extended a qualifying offer to Upton that was ultimately rejected, will receive a compensatory pick between at the end of the first round of the 2016 draft.

Of course, the addition of Upton is not without long-term payroll ramifications. While there’s every possibility that Upton will opt out of the contract in two years’ time (assuming that he is healthy and productive from 2016-17), there’s also the risk that his production declines or injuries lead to him opting into the remaining four years. Considering the fact that the Tigers owe Cabrera $218MM through 2023, Verlander $112MM through 2019, Zimmermann $110MM through 2020 and Victor Martinez $54MM through 2018, Upton’s contract adds another risk-laden deal to the ledger in the name of present-day winning. Those payroll concerns are likely a large part of the reason that GM Al Avila said earlier this offseason that further outfield additions (and, in fact, significant additions in general) were largely unlikely. However, owner Mike Ilitch has long been one of baseball’s freest spenders, and he candidly told the media earlier this offseason that he “doesn’t care†about spending money. It’s quite possible — especially considering the potential luxury tax ramifications it carries — that this contract is more of an ownership decision than one from the club’s top baseball operations decision-makers.

By my crude calculations, the Upton signing will push the Tigers to just shy of $176MM worth of luxury-tax considerations in terms of only the team’s guaranteed contracts. With arbitration-eligible players not even factored into that equation, it seems quite likely that Detroit will incur penalties, which, as Ken Rosenthal notes (on Twitter), would mean a 17.5 percent tax on every dollar over $189MM as a first-time offender of the luxury tax penalty.

Risk aside, the Tigers’ lineup is now among baseball’s most formidable collections of hitters, though it’s admittedly a right-leaning bunch. Upton is a lifetime .271/.352/.473 hitter, and while he has yet to develop into the consistent superstar-level performer that many forecast in his prospect days, he’s a consistent three- to four-win player, depending on one’s preferred version of the metric and arguably has some upside remaining in the tank. Upton, after all, posted an enormous .289/.369/.529 batting line with 31 home runs back in 2011, and while that season did come in Arizona’s hitter-friendly Chase Field, he’s still young enough that it’s not out of the question for Upton to replicate that level of production. Even if his production is more commensurate with his career batting line or his post-2011 production, however, Upton’s age makes him a likely candidate to maintain his status as a well-above-average bat in his new environs.

The Upton contract figures to be the final significant piece for the Tigers this offseason. Added to the signings of Zimmermann (five years, $110MM), Mike Pelfrey (two years, $16MM), Mark Lowe (two years, $11MM) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia ($507.5K), that makes a total of $270.26MM spent on free agents alone, to say nothing of the guaranteed payroll added in trades to acquire Francisco Rodriguez ($9.5MM), Justin Wilson ($1.525MM) and Maybin ($5.5MM). All told, the Tigers have spent a staggering $286.78MM on upgrades to their roster this season.

Crazy deal, the Tigers always end up upgrading somehow. Zimmerann and Upton in one off-season. They want to win, and win now while their owner is still alive.

Thoughts?

 

[JZsportswhiz]

I think their ship window has sailed. I don't think they have enough pitching to compete and put themselves up there with the top teams in the AL.

So many large contracts on that roster, and not a lot of great depth on the farm. But props to them, they see a window and they are going at it.

 

[catman]

I like the deal. Not bad AAV. The term is good as well. Upton is worth the money, IMO. Surprised they didn't bring Cespedes back, though.
As to the Tigers' window being open or not, I'm not sure. They have a good offensive team and have just improved defensively. Their pitching is still questionable, however -- especially the bullpen.

 

[Foreman]

was hoping they used their money to improve their pitching instead of paying big for a star

 

[JZsportswhiz]

was hoping they used their money to improve their pitching instead of paying big for a star

Well to be fair they did add Zimmerman, and no other pitcher available right now is going to much of an impact. I could see Gallardo being a solid guy at the back end of the rotation, but nobody that can make the type of impact that Upton can.

AL Central is a tough division to read heading into this season. I see it as a toss up. I could really see any team winning it. Twins didn't really do enough to upgrade their rotation for me to really be high on them heading into the season, but they hung around all of last season so who knows.

 

[Foreman]

Well to be fair they did add Zimmerman, and no other pitcher available right now is going to much of an impact. I could see Gallardo being a solid guy at the back end of the rotation, but nobody that can make the type of impact that Upton can.

AL Central is a tough division to read heading into this season. I see it as a toss up. I could really see any team winning it. Twins didn't really do enough to upgrade their rotation for me to really be high on them heading into the season, but they hung around all of last season so who knows.

I meant for like some better relief pitchers, they've had great starters for a few years now but whenever the bullpen needs to come in, they either give up the lead or give up a lot of runs. That's why I liked a guy like Price since he was able to go a full 9 whenever we needed him to

 

[Big Papi]

I meant for like some better relief pitchers, they've had great starters for a few years now but whenever the bullpen needs to come in, they either give up the lead or give up a lot of runs. That's why I liked a guy like Price since he was able to go a full 9 whenever we needed him to

K-Rod and Justin Wilson are very welcomed additions...I'm not sure what you're talking about. They have upgraded way more than last season.

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[Foreman]

K-Rod and Justin Wilson are very welcomed additions...I'm not sure what you're talking about. They have upgraded way more than last season.

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They have but they still could've used more

 

[Big Papi]

They have but they still could've used more

Everyone could. Literally.

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[catman]

Opt out after 2 years in this contract. Not a real shocker, though.
I think Mr. Illitch will pay the going rate for another arm or 2 for the bullpen. He wants to win one before he dies, and I would like to see it as well.

 

[PowerUp2]

Damn Upton!!