Congrats to Pujols for his 600th Homer

[CameronCrazy06]

Regardless, that's a huge anomaly, and even then it's a guy who has been a career DH who doesn't have the same wear and tear

 

[PWNdroia]

and none of those guys were power hitters.  bad examples

So?  Doesn't mean he can't retire later.  I don't see your point.  I really don't think a 40 year old power hitter is more worn out than a 40 year old all-around hitter.  And, as the above poster mentioned, there's always the DH.
 
Like I said, it's highly unlikely (though you conveniently think I'm making a point of it actually being possible), I'm just not ruling it out.

 

[brett05]

The better question to ask is, if Albert was on HGH what percentage chance would he have of breaking the record? 
 
Congrats to him, shouldve stayed with the Cardinals though. He wouldve had a statue right next to Musials. Maybe still even now. 

If he had HGH I think he'd have a reasonable chance.  HGH would help his body heal from injuries faster.  So what is a reasonable chance?  Say 15%-25%

 

[brett05]

 
 
No he wouldn't have. The drop would not have been that bad at all over one season.

This is Papi's words, not mine. Plus he would have to play two more seasons to get to the right age.

 

[brett05]

Regardless, that's a huge anomaly, and even then it's a guy who has been a career DH who doesn't have the same wear and tear

Excellent point

 

[brett05]

So?  Doesn't mean he can't retire later.  I don't see your point.  I really don't think a 40 year old power hitter is more worn out than a 40 year old all-around hitter.  And, as the above poster mentioned, there's always the DH.
 
Like I said, it's highly unlikely (though you conveniently think I'm making a point of it actually being possible), I'm just not ruling it out.

It takes more wear and tear being a power hitter.  No one debates that.
 
Here's another example.  Bonds fell one short and he's the drugged up best.

 

[elcheato]

If Bonds didn't get blackballed he probably could have hit 25-30 well into his mid 40s

 

[snipezo]

So?  Doesn't mean he can't retire later.  I don't see your point.  I really don't think a 40 year old power hitter is more worn out than a 40 year old all-around hitter.  And, as the above poster mentioned, there's always the DH.
 
Like I said, it's highly unlikely (though you conveniently think I'm making a point of it actually being possible), I'm just not ruling it out.

Pujols doesn't exactly have the body that can hold up in his mid 40's. Dudes declined hard for the past few seasons as well. Don't really see him playing til he breaks the record.

 

[PWNdroia]

Pujols doesn't exactly have the body that can hold up in his mid 40's. Dudes declined hard for the past few seasons as well. Don't really see him playing til he breaks the record.

His power numbers haven't been much lower. In the last few years, he's got 31 and 40 homeruns. That's among league leaders.

Homeruns being less aren't necessarily a problem of regression, but rather the fade out of the steroid era.

He's still hit right up there with power hitters. There may be a bit of regression, but no one's hitting much more than 40 homeruns a season these days.

 

[snipezo]

He's been hitting homers, but as an overall hitter, he hasn't been great. And like I said, I don't think his body will last long enough to see him break the record. 
 
 
Also idk if you're aware, but there's been a spike in homers this season. 

 

[PWNdroia]

He's been hitting homers, but as an overall hitter, he hasn't been great. And like I said, I don't think his body will last long enough to see him break the record. 
 
 
Also idk if you're aware, but there's been a spike in homers this season. 

My point is that age should affect power, not contact.  Pujols isn't hitting for contact as well as he's hit in the past, but the power is still there.  I don't think this regression of contact is due to age.
 
The only thing age affects is how much time he has left, and his power if he starts to falter.

 

[snipezo]

My point is that age should affect power, not contact.  Pujols isn't hitting for contact as well as he's hit in the past, but the power is still there.  I don't think this regression of contact is due to age.
 
The only thing age affects is how much time he has left, and his power if he starts to falter.

He's hit 40 and still averaged .300 several times in his career, and you're telling me his decline in contact rates doesn't have a correlation with his age? Don't buy it dude. 

 

[PWNdroia]

He's hit 40 and still averaged .300 several times in his career, and you're telling me his decline in contact rates doesn't have a correlation with his age? Don't buy it dude. 

I think the correlation is more significant with power.  A lot of BA has to do with knowing balls and strikes.  That's not a perishable skill in your 40's.
 
Hitting for power, however, is a perishable skill much earlier.
 
That being said, Pujols is still hitting for power, just less for average.  That's where I don't see age as much of a factor.

 

[snipezo]

I think the correlation is more significant with power.  A lot of BA has to do with knowing balls and strikes.  That's not a perishable skill in your 40's.
 
Hitting for power, however, is a perishable skill much earlier.
 
That being said, Pujols is still hitting for power, just less for average.  That's where I don't see age as much of a factor.

What explains his spike in k rates then?

 

[PWNdroia]

What explains his spike in k rates then?

Honestly, I don't know.  But no one's given me a reliable reason for how age directly affects contact either.  Unless age affects his arm strength and swing, I don't see how it can be a factor.  Maybe I'm missing something, but please educate me.

 

[snipezo]

Honestly, I don't know.  But no one's given me a reliable reason for how age directly affects contact either.  Unless age affects his arm strength and swing, I don't see how it can be a factor.  Maybe I'm missing something, but please educate me.

Decline in bat speed, vision etc. for sure are all related to age which affect contact rates. And if a player is not making enough contact with the ball, their k rate goes up, and therefore will hurt his ba.

Don't know why were debating about this anyways because Pujols will probably not break the home run record. Still a great player regardless.

 

[CameronCrazy06]

Can we stop this debate? He's 100% not getting the record

 

[PWNdroia]

Can we stop this debate? He's 100% not getting the record

I pretty much acknowledged that, but parts are still debatable.

The thing with Pujols is that there's no clear gradual decline, which is mystifying.

 

[CameronCrazy06]

Are you joking? He's hit like .250 since going to the angels

 

[PWNdroia]

Are you joking? He's hit like .250 since going to the angels

He declined, yes, but where's the "gradual" decline.  Keyword gradual.
 
Pujols basically went from being on top of the world to mediocre in the turn of a year.  Most guys gradually decline, not change drastically overnight.