Chad Fords "Grade A" Mock Draft

[jonathanlambert33]

I won't agree that his tape doesn't look great, but at the same time you can't tell me that the offense Cal runs isn't complete shit in general. It looks like a middle school styled offense, with one guy standing on the low post, everyone else standing on the perimeter, and the ball handler at the top of the key. They'll set one pick for the ball handler if they aren't setting an ISO play for someone and that's it. No screening to get others separation; nothing intricate at all


The reason I'm so much higher on him than you are, understandably, is because I'm putting very little stock in his play at Cal. He is best suited for a fast paced offense and it might have been the worst possible place for him to have gone. The play calling seemed more intricate when you look at his high school tape than his college tape. And supposedly he out-shot Ingram in one of the workouts for the Draft (a rumor that I heard so I'm not sure of its validity)

There is no denying that he is an athletic wing with a very long wingspan, drives very well, and in the right situation could flourish. Boston could be that place, as could Phoenix. If he doesn't go 3 or 4 I think he falls to 8. There are players that will play well no matter the scheme ran and he isn't one of them. But Boston's fast paced offense is one that he would play well in, and I'd venture to say he'd be better suited in Boston's offensive style than any other team in the Top 8

It sounds like the Ben Simmons argument. You bring up Ben Simmons flaws and people say "look at the offense he was in, look at the coach, etc."  To me, the guys who are great can flourish in any offense.
 
I don't really agree with your assessment of Cals offense.  One of their main sets is the box set screen action, which relies on a lot of ball movement and screen action to get the wings open.  They also run a lot of ball screen action with a dual backscreen set by a wing for the other big trying to get a seal in the post.  Do I think it's an incredibly designed offense?  No, but I think it's a lot better than that middle school styled offense you proclaimed it to be, though I'm sure that was a little sarcasm.
 
I also don't think the offense played slow, and even if they did I don't think it's a legitimate excuse because in the dog days of the NBA season and in the playoffs you're going to have to show your worth in the halfcourt, something Jaylen did not do.  Even then, the difference in pace between college teams is almost nonexistent.  The difference between the 2nd fastest team and the 8th fastest team in the Pac-12 was like 4 possessions a game.  
 
One thing I hear about the offense at Cal is how the spacing was poor, and like I said earlier, that's Ben Simmons.  When you put guys who spend a lot of time on the wing and with the ball in their hands, who can't shoot, the spacing is going to be bad.  If Jaylen Brown or Ben Simmons could hit a jumper, that offense looks like a whole lot more spacious
 
and even then, there are things in his game that weren't impacted by the offense that was still poor.  Was his ball handling shaky because of the offense?  Did he have a tendency to barrel into the lane and throw up shots that didn't have a prayer at the rim, or end in a charge, because of the offense?  Did he have tunnel vision and show no passing skill because of the offense?  Was his jump shooting so bad because of the offense?  Why was he lazy on defense?  Why was he so unaware on defense?  
 
Even if Boston does draft him, I see no way he gets meaningful minutes when it matters.  He's not NBA ready.  But if Boston goes into the draft and says "if we can't move the pick we're going to swing for the fences" then I guess I can't say much about Brown, though like I've said in the past, there are guys who are better basketball players right now and have more upside as basketball players that are going to be available at 3.  
 
I know I'm not going to change your mind, but it's still fun to have friendly debates and put your thoughts on there.  I just watch Brown and he looks goofy out there.  That's not something you can say for the other guys.  He doesn't have "it."  He's more Harrison Barnes than Paul George.  I really haven't felt this strongly that a prospect isn't going to work out since Anthony Bennett.  95 percent of the time I would say I could see a guy being a number of different things.  Hield, Dunn, Murray, etc, those are guys that I would say could be great but you could also miss on.  Brown will never be great, he'll never be an All-Star caliber player.  If he was an NFL player he would get that "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" label.

 

[jonathanlambert33]

and another thing we never talk about, probably the most important thing in being that #1 or #2 player on a championship team, mental makeup.  You can find the flaws in any prospect, you can over exaggerate them and you can also explain away weaknesses if you want to put the prospect in the best light possible.  People have different approaches of how to measure success in the draft, that's why 30 teams have 30 very different big boards.  Some guys have the philosophy of taking the guys with the best measurables and tools and mold them.  I tend to think it's a blend of measurables,  production, and going back to that most important thing, mental makeup.
 
I'd discuss all three, because to me, the mental makeup is why I don't see Brown ever a perennial All-Star.  I saw absolutely no killer instinct in any game I've watched of him.  He's to nice out there, going back to that "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" phrase.  Maybe his raw numbers will be better with more space, but I don't care about that.  Rudy Gay has had seasons with good numbers.  Jeff Green has had seasons with good numbers.  To be a great, a #1 or #2 guy, you need some dog in you.  I've never seen that in him, and that's one of those things a coaching staff can never develop.  Either you have it or you don't.
 
I think Dunn, Murray, and Hield all have "it."  Murray and his father have talked about how his goal is to be the greatest player of all time, which is easy to laugh at, but you can see the kid trying to back that up.  I thought the second half of his freshman season was unbelievable and I still rank that behind his Team Canada and elite camp showings.  I love the mental makeup of those guys, but nobody has all three categories.  Bender is missing the production, for instance.  All have questions, but Brown has had bad production and poor basketball mental makeup.  So you are drafting him on physical tools and upside, and like I said a few weeks back, those guys rarely pan out.