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Bozo The Clown
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Rejoice, it's that wonderful time of the season when we get to overreact and speculate on prospects who have yet to suit up for a single training camp with their new teams. We also get to speculate on their roles prior to free agency, countless trades, and chief among other things - we get to speculate on their roles prior to showing what they can do on the court. For these reasons, consider these draft grades to include everything from overall talent and upside, both short-and-long-term, to team fit and value for their draft position. While there is no specific formula, I consider upside and value over other speculative details we can make judgments upon, but the grade is meant to be some sort of overall combination of all factors. In other words, if it's 2003 and you need a shooting guard, Dwyane Wade is perfect for you but LeBron James is a pick that earns you a higher grade. Please consider these grades accordingly.- Round 1 -
While there is some debate on long-term upside between a few guys in this draft, Mitchell is the best scorer right now and has the upside to be an All-NBA player in this league. He is flexible enough to play some minutes at PG or SF, and could eventually be a very good defender to match his scoring knack. His floor is solid starter or very good sixth man, so this is both a safe pick and a high upside pick. In my opinion, Mitchell was the #1 prospect and he was drafted accordingly, and the team fit makes sense alongside Jamal Murray (a PG who profiles as a bit of a combo guard). This isn't some genius pick that only the most shrewd GMs would make, but it's the right pick and that deserves props. Grade: A+
By the same token that Mitchell was probably the clear-but-close #1, Tatum strikes me as the clear-but-close #2 player in the draft. While Fox and some of the big men on the board are very promising, Tatum has the upside to be a franchise player at a very thing position in terms of star power. Tatum's strengths are on the offensive end, but he's got the size and physical profile to be a plus rebounder and a plus defender. I wouldn't expect him to be making any DPOTY bids, but he won't be a sieve and should be a step above most other SFs on the offensive league as early as his rookie season. Fit-wise, he made sense for Toronto and makes sense for the Cavaliers team he was traded to in the Kevin Durant blockbuster. If he didn't strike you as an A+ pick on his own, being the centerpiece of a trade for one of the league's 5 best players deserves that grade by its own merit. Grade: A+
At this point you're probably thinking I'm just going to hand out A+ grades to everyone. Fox is a fantastic pick here as well, but this is the point in the draft where things started getting a little more interesting. Charlotte has fallen off a bit as their core has aged and franchise player Derrick Rose left in FA last year, so replacing him with a relatively similar style PG is a logical place to go with this pick. An argument could be made for a couple other players being best available here, or at least safest picks, but none offer the combination of upside, fit, and value that the 19 year old De'Aaron Fox provides. Drafting a big man doesn't significantly change your franchise at #3 overall, especially when your two best incumbent players are starting at the 4 and 5. This is, once again, the right pick here. Grade: A+
4. Los Angeles Lakers -- PF Lauri Markkanen
Spoiler alert: this will not be an A+ grade. That said, I do feel that Markkanen fits into the Lakers' puzzle long term and provides them with another high-upside starter in the early stages of this draft. He profiles as sort of a Kristaps Porzingis-type of power forward, and could even slide into the 3 or 5 spots in some lineups. While I don't think I'd particularly want him at either position for a ton of minutes, it's that kind of versatility that really shows what type of skill he possesses. If you cater your offense for a player like him, he could be a sleeper candidate for ROTY or a future all star bid. If you fall asleep at the wheel and expect him to just contribute consistently as a non-option, it remains to be seen if he'll be a difference maker. I think there's a lot of boom or bust potential here, and he's far from a lock. This is however a high-upside play and a fit on this roster, so it's worthy of some praise. Grade: A-
5. Brooklyn Nets -- PG Lonzo Ball
It's not hard to see what qualities the Nets like about Ball - he's a polished defender at a position that's built around offensively focused guys, and he also has some plus ability as a passer and rebounder. This is a guy that could put up some triple doubles on a frequent basis, in the mold of a Rajon Rondo type lead guard. Fit-wise, this is a major head scratcher. This roster currently has 0 players I'd consider to be a scorer, although Myles Turner could qualify. I'm not convinced Ball will ever have much shooting ability, and his athleticism is fine but not enough to make me think he'll be a terror inside either. It seems their new GM really values defense out of all the youth he's collected, and while I do like what the core has quickly become, this group sorely lacks anyone that looks like a franchise player or even a 20PPG type of player. Alternatively, this could actually be by design. It's possible I'm missing a clear attempt at collecting solid assets while also lining up to be the #1 pick next season (and they also own San Antonio's 2018 first round pick). In the context of just this draft, however, I feel there were better players available here but I can't knock them too much for drafting a PG. Grade: B-
6. Golden State Warriors -- PF Jonathan Isaac
The Warriors have been collecting youth in the same vein as Brooklyn (and San Antonio, more on them later) under their new GM. Personally, I feel that John Collins or Jarrett Allen would have been A grade picks here. Isaac is a very interesting prospect, as I feel he actually profiles better as a SF long term than PF or even C, but his size and rounded skills make him malleable at this point in his career. He contrasts Lauri Markannen in terms of play style, as Isaac is a more defensively focused prospect, but could end up being a player that's compared to a few different types long-term. Some compare his body and movement to Kevin Durant, although he will never be that type of scorer barring unforeseen divine intervention. He's a very interesting player, but may ultimately be a bit redundant alongside Pascal Siakam (who shares relatively similar upside). This is a player I'll be watching closely, as he could be a complete bust or a future two way star. If the latter happens, I feel his ceiling exists as a SF. Grade: B
7. Los Angeles Lakers -- PF John Collins
This is a great value pick, even if a bit redundant or questionable on a team that just picked Lauri in the top 5. I don't feel like Collins looks to be a player you'd be comfortable starting at C for long periods of time, but he does have a bit more of a typical big man game than Lauri, who may be headed for many more SF minutes after this pick. On any team that didn't have a young PF waiting on the wings, I'd easily give this an A or even A+ grade at #7 due to the value. I'll be interested to see if LA chooses to develop both guys at different positions, or if they move on from one as soon as they get a feel for who fits their long term goals. Despite the fit, value is king and this pick holds a lot of value even if a trade is on the horizon. Grade: A-
8. Utah Jazz -- SF Kyle Kuzma
In a draft with a lot of positional flexibility, here's another guy that can be envisioned as someone that will be a starter at either forward position in the coming years. He's a skilled scorer that comes in with a high floor on the offensive end. Ultimately, he's a safe pick that will be judged off whatever his ceiling ends up being. Defensive struggles will limit his value a bit, but he's a solid rebounder (especially if he stays at SF), so he shouldn't be undervalued too much league-wide due to his contributions outside of scoring. This is a Utah team that's retooling more so than rebuilding, and Kuzma provides them with a wing that fits the Kemba-Jimmy-Derrick timeline. It's a no-brainer in terms of fit, so even considering the elephant in the room still available on the draft board, this team had no need for a center with Clint Capela still around as a reserve. Grade: B+
9. Memphis Grizzlies -- C Jarrett Allen
Normally, when a team's two best players are at the same position (center, which is also typically a position where you want depth but probably don't want to stack all of your chips), you definitely do not draft a center with a top 10 pick to stack on top of the logjam. I'd normally bash this type of thinking, as it's the least logical draft pick so far in a vacuum. By the same token, when you can draft a top 5 talent who has a high ceiling alongside a very high floor, you deserve praise. In terms of draft position, this is the best pick that was made in this draft in my opinion. I could have easily seen Allen taken at 4, or even 3 if the lottery shook out differently. This is a guy that could be leading the league in rebounding and blocked shots in 5 years, and has some offensive ability as well. I'm willing to overlook the logjam in this grade, although it is very clear to me that Memphis will have to face the reality of where their assets are centralized in the near future. Grade: A+
10. Utah Jazz -- PG Dennis Smith Jr.
The Jazz did well to get in position to draft two players at the back end of the top 10, and they went with low floor, high ceiling on this one. There's not a ton beyond the obvious to say about this pick: Kemba is their starter at PG, which means Smith will be in a good position to sit and develop his jump shot and facilitating skills on a roster that doesn't depend on him reaching his potential quickly. If he isn't able to become a dependable shooter, there's a good chance his value will never really reach a very high point. If this sounds familiar to that of another boom or bust prospect, stay tuned for the nearly identical analysis of pick #12. We're at a point in the draft where I totally understand picking off upside rather than fit or short-term safety, so this is fine, but not a lot more. Grade: B-
11. Cleveland Cavaliers -- C Bam Adebayo
When you're coming off a title and have a chance to draft someone with long term upside who could even step in and contribute heavy minutes right away, you have to go for that. Cleveland didn't overthink the process and gamble on a boom or bust guy, and while the fruits of Adebayo might only be noticed in fine print, it's a very sound pick that can't really be diminished in any way. Bam's floor is a decent shot blocker and good rebounder, while his ceiling likely places him in that second tier of rim defenders that's not quite where Rudy Gobert has ascended to, but is a difference maker on a good team. Sometimes keeping it simple and taking the safe pick is the best pick to make, and Bam's upside make this one of my favorite five or ten picks made in this draft. Grade: A
12. Washington Wizards -- PG Markelle Fultz
This pick's analysis will read about the same as Dennis Smith's at #10. Washington has two star guards on the roster, so they can afford to gamble on someone with very high upside here. I can't help but worry about Fultz's floor as a non-shooting, minus defender PG who also struggles at times to maintain an efficient assist-to-turnover ratio. At the tail end of the lottery, however, drafting someone with the upside to be a future all star (even if that's 5+ years away) is well worth the gamble when you can afford to do just that. There are other picks that I feel could have been sound, logical fits here, but I actually like this over any alternative. Grade: A
13. Memphis Grizzlies -- SF Josh Jackson
Well, they could have taken a fourth center here. Josh Jackson profiles as a physical specimen that should be a defensive stopper, but if he never reaches even moderate scoring ability (which he currently is well short of), this could be a wasted lottery pick. The floor is very low here - KJ McDaniels or MKG (who is a Memphis Grizzly) low. His upside does warrant a look here, but making the splash to draft another defense-first player on a team devoid of scorers is questionable. If a consistent jump shot exists somewhere in his future, I'll eat my words and this pick will be absolutely genius GMing. In my opinion though, the odds are that Jackson gets lost in the SF depth on this roster as they're forced to play at least one scorer on the wing. If the situation changes dramatically and this team adds scorers at the guard spots in exchange for some of their SF depth to clear the logjam, this grade will become irrelevant. Grade: C-
14. San Antonio Spurs -- PF Harry Giles
With the lottery in the rearview mirror, getting a 19 year old with upside as both a scorer and a defender/rebounder is an absolute steal. While his floor isn't dangerously bust-level low, Giles could stagnate in the wrong situation and end up as just an end-rotation big. His upside is about as high as anyone's could be expected after the lottery though, and this might be the best situation for him as well. I absolutely love this pick at this point in the draft. If Giles can improve his rebounding this summer, he's a sleeper candidate for ROTY given his projected playing time. Grade: A+
15. Oklahoma City Thunder -- SG Luke Kennard
While I still would expect to see Victor Oladipo re-sign with this team, there's a sudden opening on the depth chart for a scoring guard alongside Reggie Jackson, and Luke Kennard comes in as a polished shooter. He's got a decently high ceiling as a pure scorer, who won't be a star defender or facilitator out of the 2 but should be dependable and fit in just about any lineup. He's about as sure of a thing as you can get from the perimeter at this point in the draft, and has high enough upside to warrant the pick. Grade: B+
16. Orlando Magic -- SG Josh Hart
After being a mainstay at the top quarter of the East for years, Orlando has slowly drifted a bit off the pace at the top of the conference and needs to infuse some new pieces. They're relatively shallow outside of LeBron, Bledsoe and Hibbert, and they definitely had the weakest depth at SG. Hart could play off the bench right away, and may even have long term starter upside (although I wouldn't expect him to ever be a high volume scorer). He possesses all the glue-guy characteristics that winning teams look for, and profiles as a Danny Green-type guard that fits well alongside ball-dominant players like LeBron James. Their depth chart will probably change significantly before the season starts, but when you have limited financial flexibility and are looking to contend, drafting a guy that will likely play significant minutes and may even be a spot starter is a good value here. Grade: B+
17. Sacramento Kings -- C Thomas Bryant
Sacramento goes with a young big man with solid two-way upside long term here. This is a player that's easy to project as someone that will improve significantly over time, and while he may never be a star, he's a pretty safe pick here with both a fairly high floor and ceiling. There wasn't necessarily a need for a big man here, and I would have liked to see them target a wing, but given who was available here there were only a couple logical picks and this was one. Grade: B
18. Boston Celtics -- PF Jordan Bell
In a similar regard to Cleveland's pick of Adebayo, the Celtics are in a position to either draft for trade value or aim for high floor contributors here. As one of the teams with limited or no cap space, draft picks are an opportunity to add talent and roster value outside of exceptions and min deals, so this chain of late picks for Boston is as much financially-focused as it is in terms of talent. Bell profiles as a shot blocker that they hope can become a plus rebounder, but his offensive upside is pretty low. This isn't a home run pick, but it provides playable depth at low cost. Grade: B
19. Los Angeles Lakers -- PG Derrick White
With their fourth pick of the top 20, LA added another nice piece for the long term. While White is relatively old for a rookie, he's been a late bloomer in college and might still have some upside to combine with his high floor. In terms of roster fit, PG isn't necessarily a need but it's always nice to add a backup guard with some upside. With Murray and Mitchell as the surefire starters here, White has the size to play some backup 2 and should be able to play a solid 20MPG as a rookie. He's also one of about four or five players left on the board here with starter potential so this is a good value. Grade: B+
20. Dallas Mavericks -- SG Malik Monk
Officially drafted by Dallas, this is informally a pick made by-and-for the Celtics. Monk provides them with a high ceiling scoring wing, as he's just 19 and has flashed some streaky shooting ability in college and also has the athletic profile to eventually be a decent inside scorer. With a body type that hints at him potentially playing some backup PG someday, he has a long way to go as a facilitator before that comes to fruition. Monk lacks the size, defense or rebounding to play at the 3 at this point, but does has some versatile traits that would help his value as a future 6th man candidate long term if developed. This is a great value pick in my opinion, and a luxury. Grade: A
21. Golden State Warriors -- PG Frank Ntilikina
In this chain of boom-or-bust value picks, "Frankie Nicotine" is probably the most polarizing prospect. His floor is exceptionally low, although it can be compared to Lonzo Ball's floor to an extent, which hints at the value here. It's not often that you can draft a 6'5" PG that's only 19 and has potential to be a solid shooter and facilitator alongside what many project to be plus defense. There's no evidence that he will develop any of these traits, but if he hits on even two of the three here (with shooting being the key in my opinion), he could be very useful down the line. He has the size to be very versatile, especially off the bench, but at the moment he's a jack of all trades who's pretty far from mastering anything. Good value, low floor. If he busts, it's not a ton of value lost, and if he hits, this is a franchise-altering pick. Sounds about right for a 21st pick. Grade: B+
22. Dallas Mavericks -- C Zach Collins
This is another one of my favorite picks in the draft in terms of value. Collins is a 19 year old center who has the skill to play at the 4, and ultimately could be a positive contributor on both ends. He doesn't have eye-popping athleticism, but still blocked a fair amount of shots in college by being in the right place at the right time. I wouldn't expect him to come in and play a ton off the bat, but if he develops well he's an absolute steal. His floor isn't super high, but it's also not at a level I'd consider low. Big men with some all around skill are valued, and at just 19 years old I could foresee him being a Maverick for many years (especially if his future contracts remain team-friendly). Grade: A
23. Atlanta Hawks -- SF OG Anunoby
OG is a player that steps into a situation where he won't be pressed to outplay his abilities early. I can't help but feel he's a player that outperforms his scouted talent level, but at the same time he's not someone I'd expect to ever be a star. He's got all the glue-guy traits and qualities that teams love, similar to Josh Hart in that sense (although they're distinctively different players). Anunoby could be a very good wing defender down the line, and if he develops a feel for scoring he should be valued. Grade: B
24. Utah Jazz -- PF Jonah Bolden
This feels like a high floor, low ceiling pick out of a team that is in that middle zone between rebuilding and contending. Bolden has some solid offensive ability and should eventually be a decent rebounder, but I question how useful a big man that's going to struggle to protect the rim will be in a division that has a fair share of scoring bigs. I don't love this pick, and don't know if he moves the needle for the team in any sort of way. Will he ever play? There aren't a ton of guys that scream "Draft me!" available here though, so I don't hate it. Grade: C-
25. Denver Nuggets -- PG Monte Morris
One player that is screaming "Draft Me!" is Monte Morris. He'll come in as a highly efficient ball handler, who also profiles as someone that should eventually be able to shoot the ball fairly well. If his defense is up to par, he could actually become a starter at some point. I feel like his offensive game is sort of Chris Paul-esque, although I definitely wouldn't want to expect him to put up HOF-worthy stats off the bat. This pick is on the short list of candidates for best value in the draft. Grade: A
26. Brooklyn Nets -- C Ivan Rabb
Rabb fits in with Brooklyn's youth movement, and really seems to have some solid two-way upside. He's got a nice shooting touch, and has the athletic ability to contribute on the glass. Defensively, I wouldn't expect Rabb to be a game-changer but he shouldn't hurt his team on that end, either. You'll probably see a trend with my grades on the bigs taken in the next 10 picks here, but I really like this crop of guys in terms of value vs. draft position. Grade: A-
27. Boston Celtics -- SG Antonio Blakeney
Blakeney is a fiery combo guard that doesn't clearly fit into either position's ideal size and skill box, but could end up being a sixth man on a team that lacks a secondary PG. His floor is exceptionally low, as he's not really someone I'd trust doing anything at this point in his career. His perceived ceiling is high for this point in a draft, though, so development will be key. On a team with no playing time available to him, he's a lock for the G-League. Grade: C
28. Boston Celtics -- SG Terrance Ferguson
Ferguson fits right alongside Monk and Blakeney as the same type of prospect, who could be out of the league in a few years, or playing significant minutes if they develop well. As a 19 year old, the Suns will have to be patient with Terrance as he builds his skill around an impressive athletic frame. He has upside as a very good defender, who should be a solid shooter and decent inside scoring if he can harness his talent. This pick gets a slight bonus in being a key piece of the Jrue Holiday trade. Grade: B+
29. Boston Celtics -- C Tony Bradley
To end the first round, Boston took yet another 19 year old, this time a center/power forward prospect. Bradley has some nice athletic tools, but is very raw at this point on both ends. His offensive upside might be pretty low, but defensively there's hope that he can be a nice low-volume big long term for Phoenix. Similar to pick #28, this pick gets a slight value bonus due to being a key part of the Jrue Holiday trade. Grade: B
