2014 Prospect Talk Thread

[TTN2810]

Finally got my top 15 QB's ranked. I'm sure this will change a few times leading up to the draft.

1. ZACH METTENBERGER, LSU
2. TEDDY BRIDGEWATER, LOUISEVILLE
3. JOHNNY MANZIEL, TEXAS A&M
4. AARON MURRAY, GEORGIA
5. BLAKE BORTLES, UCF
6. DEREK CARR, FRESNO ST.
7. LOGAN THOMAS, VIRGINIA TECH
8. JIMMY GAROPPOLO, NIU
9. DAVID FALES, SAN JOSE ST.
10. TAJH BOYD, CLEMSON
11. KEITH WENNING, BALL ST.
12. AJ McCARRON, ALABAMA
13. TOM SAVAGE, PITT
14. BRETT SMITH, WYOMING
15. STEPHEN MORRIS, MIAMI

EDIT
Just FYI, I haven't watched Connor Shaw, Garrett Gilbert and a select few other draft hopefuls with potential to claim the 14th and 15th spots.

 

[bosoxlover12]

Looks like we found the award for Worst Mock Draft by a Sports Analyst:

Mike Florio.

Some notable picks-

1. HOU: OT Greg Robinson
7. TB: DT Aaron Donald, because apparently Florio doesn't think Gerald McCoy is good enough to play the Sapp DT role
16. DAL: DE Dee Ford (Ealy goes #31)
22. PHI: S Calvin Pryor. It's a good pick, but he isn't going to be the #2 safety or fall into the 20s
23. KC: CB Justin Gilbert- 1st corner taken at 23 overall?? (Dennard goes 28)
26. CLE: RB DRI ARCHER.

 

[elcheato]

All mocks are terrible

 

[TTN2810]

I'm going back to re-watch Bortles, and man he's so frustrating. Makes an amazing throw one play, then the next misses an easy TD pass. Really struggles big time when he has to put air under it. Really tough to get passed.

 

[TTN2810]

Fales is also really starting to grow on me.

 

[TTN2810]

Derek Carr is going to either be great, or a bust I think. Not sure there's an in between, sadly. He needs a really good coach. Not sure where to keep him on my list. Huge potential, but isn't safe at all. Would I rather have a safer guy with a lower ceiling? I'm not sure.
 
If he starts right away, that could be a disaster.

 

[bosoxlover12]

Arizona is perfect for him. Arians has a great track record (Roethlisberger, Luck), and they have 1-2 years of Carson before throwing in Carr

 

[TTN2810]

I do agree that is the best place for him, 100%

 

[elcheato]

This is 2014. First round picks don't sit all year, let alone two.

 

[TTN2810]

That's more if you're picking at the top. If you can afford to let him sit, why not if it helps his development? Especially when it's physical issues? That can pay off big time. 
 
Also then, if you think a first round QB must be able to start right away, Carr is not a first rounder.

 

[elcheato]

He's going to go in the first round more than likely. If you draft a QB in the first round, usually that signifies a lack of talent at the position on your team, thus eventually faulting said QB into the starting lineup.

 

[TTN2810]

Just because a guy gets picked in the 1st doesn't mean that's where his value is. 
 
For the Cardinals, we know Palmer isn't a franchise guy. But he's got enough to get the team into the playoffs for now. It's like Andy Dalton. That's all he can do. Get them there but not win there. But it's still good experience for the rest of the team to get there.

 

[elcheato]

Palmer is 34 and just threw a career high in INTs. All it takes is a bad start to the year, coupled with tons of INTs, and the fans start chanting for Carr and the coaching staff gets impatient.
 
Sitting a guy in theory is great, just doesn't happen anymore with first rounders.

 

[TTN2810]

Just because it doesn't often, doesn't mean it can't. And not saying it will, either. It's just ideal. And I believe that the Cardinals are in the position to do it. Hence why I said it's the best place for him, not the most likely.

 

[TTN2810]

It's funny though, Carr and Bortles have opposite strong points and weaknesses. I guess you like whichever one that you think their issues are more likely to be fixable. Carr has an NFL ready arm, has shown the ability of pinpoint accuracy. Bortles has great pocket presence and throws well from a muddled pocket. Bortles needs to harness his arm strength and really work on his accuracy, where Carr needs to develop his pocket presence and tight pocket delivery. 
 
Both have issues throwing from a balanced base, however.
 
I'd still take Carr.

 

[Teagz]

I'd much rather Carr.

 

[elcheato]

It's not even a "doesn't happen often" thing, it's only actually happened once in the last 6 years. Twice if you count Tebow, but that was one of the biggest reaches I've witnessed in the NFL.
 
2013:
EJ Manuel (10 starts)
 
2012:
Andrew Luck (16 starts)
Robert Griffin III (15 starts)
Ryan Tannehill (16 starts)
Brandon Weeden (15 starts)
 
2011:
Cam Newton (16 starts)
Jake Locker (2 starts)
Blaine Gabbert (15 starts)
Christian Ponder (11 starts)
 
2010:
Sam Bradford (16 starts)
Tim Tebow (3 starts)
 
2009:
Matt Stafford (10 starts)
Mark Sanchez (15 starts)
Josh Freeman (9 starts)
 
2008:
Matt Ryan (16 starts)
Joe Flacco (16 starts)
 
Locker was on pace to sit behind Hasselbeck all year, but he's the clear outlier.

 

[TTN2810]

And look how many busts there were. These guys need to sit.

 

[elcheato]

Regardless, doesn't happen anymore.
 
They probably all would have busted anyway
 
Brady Quinn & JaMarcus Russell both sat pretty much all year in 2007.

 

[TTN2810]

As for Quinn and Russell: Russell never should have been a #1 overall pick. Everyone knew that. The Raiders are dumb. And with Quinn, look at the organization he played for lol.
 
Trends change in the NFL all the time though. Before Kaep, Wilson and Dalton, drafting a 2nd or 3rd round QB wasn't viewed as a viable way of getting a good starter. 
 
And how can you say it wouldn't have mattered when even recent QB's who have had the chance to sit for a year, such as Kaepernick or Foles, have come in and had tremendous success? Granted they weren't first rounders, but they were QB's with issues that needed to be fixed, where sitting was helpful for them. If you can afford to let a guy as talented as Carr to sit, you do it because they payout could be uncanny.