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From:realgm
Jeff Risdon/RealGM - By Jeff Risdon
One more postseason all-star game remains, the NFLPA game in San Antonio this coming weekend. The talent pool there is hoping to lap at the bottom of mocks like this, and I’ll be there most of the week to ascertain if any are worthy.
My usual two disclaimers:
-- Do not mistake the selections here for the choices I would make. I am trying to forecast what the given team would do with the given pick, not tell you what I would do with the same pick.
-- I am more focused on matching the player with the draft slot, not necessarily the team currently in that slot. This is especially true in picks 25-50, where over half the picks get traded every year. If you think I’m intoxicated and/or asinine because I put a player with a team that you think doesn’t need him, you might be right…but it’s more about the player and draft slot. Try and pay less attention to the team aspect.
1. Carolina Panthers: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn. The Panthers need an interior force more than they need a pass rusher. Keep in mind Charles Johnson bagged 12 sacks and they have other promising young talent at DE/OLB. The only DT under contract right now for next season is Andre Neblett. The door is open for Cam Newton to “wow” them.
2. Denver Broncos: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson. John Fox begins the massive and long-needed defensive overhaul by taking Bowers, the closest thing to Julius Peppers since Fox had him in Carolina. I think Peterson and Miller will both be highly tempting, but Bowers athleticism at his position is freakishly hard to ignore.
3. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU. Corners almost never go in the top 5, but Peterson has the measurables and big-play ability to qualify as an exception. The Bills almost invariably go best talent available and they need impact playmakers across the board regardless of position.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M. Even though Carlos Dunlap finished with a major flourish, upgrading the pass rush is a priority for Marvin Lewis & Co. Their LB play took a major decline in 2010, and Miller has emphatically shown he is more than just a pass rusher.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn. I’ll be honest.. I actually believe Newton will go higher than this; he’s the most dynamic offensive presence to hit the draft since Michael Vick. He’s not necessarily the best QB right now, but his upside is Ben Roethslisberger's size and guts paired with Steve Young’s athleticism. The Cardinals sure seem like a strong candidate to roll the dice, even if they also court a veteran QB.
6. Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia. The Browns are acutely aware they sorely lack a playmaking threat to help Colt McCoy. Green is the complete package, and his impact on Georgia’s offense with and without him was stunning. That kind of dynamic presence is tough to ignore for a WR-desperate franchise.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Robert Quinn, LB, North Carolina. Quinn is a big risk, as he has not played since November 2009. But he’s also a big potential reward as a speedy pass rusher with a physical style, both of which will play very well with the Niners new staff.
8. Tennessee Titans: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri. It’s a foregone assumption the Titans are taking a QB here, and I won’t fight that in this edition. The coaching change could be the best thing to happen to Gabbert, who has a lot of potential but a long ways before he gets there. Less pressure to win means he won’t be rushed and can learn from Kerry Collins.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Nate Solder, T, Colorado. The first tackle comes off the board later than any year since 2005, when Jammal Brown went #13 overall. Solder is still growing into the position, as much as a 6’8”+, 314 pounder can still be growing, but his potential is higher than any other tackle and he’s not far away from achieving that potential.
10. Washington Redskins: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama. Quick, active, big, and not shy to flash a nasty streak. Sounds like Albert Haynesworth, a guy the Skins must regrettably replace. Dareus fits the bill and his heeling under Nick Saban helps mitigate some of the risk for a player that registered 3 tackles or less in 17 of his 23 college games.
11. Houston Texans: Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri. Making the switch to a 3-4 defense requires a lot of new faces, and Smith has the potential to make a big impact as an edge rusher that they’ve never had.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Anthony Castonzo, T, Boston College. Built like a professional wrestler, he’s more agile and also more versatile than their two current tackles, but could also play guard if they need him there more.
13. Detroit Lions: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska. Getting the reputation as a “safe” pick, which hasn’t always been for the best (think Aaron Curry). But the Lions need a “safe” corner, and his very high talent floor and ability to tackle will fit well in Coach Schwartz’s defense.
14. St. Louis Rams: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama. Last year they hit pay dirt with their franchise QB and very good LT. Now Sam Bradford gets a legit receiver to help him. There are concerns about Jones’ top-end speed and frequent minor injury history, but he is a great physical presence capable of taking over a game.
15. Miami Dolphins: Cameron Jordan, DE, California. Mr. Wake, meet Mr. Jordan. He will help you lead the league in sacks next year too, along with getting a handful of his own and being a general menace with his quickness. His intelligent aloofness will play well in their locker room.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado. I have a feeling he will go higher than this, but Smith winds up in a place that sorely needs a physical DB presence. I’m sure they would prefer one of the above pass rushers, however.
17. New England Patriots (from OAK): Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State. Heyward has the mantra of a Patriot already--tough, smart, able to rise up when needed but confident enough to sublimate himself when it helps his teammates rise up. Of course the Patriots will not be staying here; maybe this will be the year where they actually move up and go for a premier talent instead of trading back and getting 4 merely functional pieces. They are scarily lacking in premier talent right now.
18. San Diego Chargers: Gabe Carimi, T, Wisconsin. He’s not without his detractions, but Carimi is the top run blocking tackle in this draft. His physical style and ability to lead the charge at the second level will bring a missing edge to the Chargers already potent offense.
19. New York Giants: Tyron Smith, T, USC. Smith’s draft stock is still highly variable, and perhaps no player needs a better weigh-in day at the Combine than the undersized tackle. He’s got a lot of Joe Staley in him, but there’s a lot of Tony Ugoh on display too.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue. The Bucs know they must improve their pass rush if they want to catch the Saints and Falcons. Kerrigan is an accomplished edge rusher that lived in opposing backfields at Purdue, and his quickness gave the top Senior Bowl tackles fits.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor. It’s one thing when fans demand a team get bigger and tougher up the gut, but when the coach and defensive coordinator volunteer that information, you know they’re going to address it aggressively. Taylor is the top immovable object in this draft, with the potential to be as good as a motivated Shaun Rogers…who could also find his way to KC.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Rodney Hudson, C/G, Florida State. Jeff Saturday can’t play forever, and none of their guards can play anytime soon. Hudson fits the Colts profile--extremely athletic, undersized, and loaded with football IQ. His ability to play guard or center will allow him to contribute right away.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA. His size (258 pounds) is what makes Ayers appealing to the Eagles, but what makes him a 1st rounder is his ability to move and play in space at his size. He’s a strong blitzer as well.
24. New Orleans Saints: JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin. Evaluators are still trying to figure out just where he fits best in the NFL at 6’5” and 290 pounds, but the Saints have had great success using big Will Smith as a pass rushing end. Watt has some juice off the edge but his power is a refreshing changeup against a league turning towards smaller offensive tackles.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Jake Locker, QB, Washington. I’m not sold that Locker will wind up in the first round, and I’m not sold he’s a Pete Carroll kind of guy. But I like the “local” angle, and I see him more like Brady Quinn than Jimmy Clausen in terms of “once highly touted QB that plummets on draft day”. Quinn fell to this range, and I think Locker ultimately winds up in the mid-20s as well. It might as well be Seattle.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois. In 2009 I went to an Illinois game and was intrigued by Liuget’s ability to crash the line, but his stamina and base strength were substandard. He got himself in great shape in 2010 and was often Haloti Ngata-like in the OL-rich Big Ten. What’s better for Baltimore fans than one Nagata? How about Ngata-lite playing next to him as Kelly Gregg’s career winds down.
27. Atlanta Falcons: Danny Watkins, G, Baylor. Some will be turned off by his age (he’s 26), but his maturity and strong technique despite being inexperienced mean he’s game-ready for a contending team like the Falcons.
28. New England Patriots: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia. Again, the odds the Pats keep this pick are about the same as me waking up next to Rachel Weisz, but he brings an added dimension of fast-twitch athleticism to a stolid young Pats defense.
29. Chicago Bears: Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida. Mike Tice did a nice job molding an under-talented collection into a reasonably functional OL, but if the Bears are going to improve offensively, they need a legit studhorse up front. Mike’s not quite his Pro Bowl twin brother, but he’s close enough to really help Chicago.
30. New York Jets: Jarvis Jenkins, DT, Clemson. Jenkins fits the Rex Ryan profile--aggressive, pugnacious, verbose, and probably better at his job than often credited. He can play end in a 3-4 or tackle when they move to a 4-man front.
31. Green Bay Packers: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa. The Packers have the playmakers already, but could use some talented supporting cast members. Clayborn is a solid football player and strong athlete that doesn’t need to make lots of plays to make a big impact.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Derek Sherrod, T, Mississippi State. His athleticism is ahead of his technique at this point, but he’s an accomplished “recovery blocker”, something that blends well with Big Ben’s QB style.
Round 2
33. New England Patriots (from CAR): Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
34. Denver Broncos: Quinton Carter, S, Oklahoma
35. Buffalo Bills: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
36. Cincinnati Bengals: Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois
37. Arizona Cardinals: Greg Jones, LB, Michigan State
38. Cleveland Browns: Demarcus Love, T, Arkansas
39. San Francisco 49ers: Titus Young, WR, Boise State
40. Tennessee Titans: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
41. Dallas Cowboys: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami FL
42. Washington Redskins: Stefen Wisniewski, C, Penn State
43. Houston Texans: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple
44. Minnesota Vikings: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
45. Detroit Lions: Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois
46. St. Louis Rams: Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
47. Denver Broncos (from MIA): DeAndre McDaniel, S, Clemson
48. Jacksonville Jaguars: Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
49. Oakland Raiders: Dontay Moch, LB, Nevada
50. San Diego Chargers: Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Troy
51. New York Giants: Luke Stocker, TE, Tennessee
52. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Curtis Brown, CB, Texas
53. Kansas City Chiefs: Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
54. Indianapolis Colts: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
55. Philadelphia Eagles: Ben Ijalana, T/G, Villanova
56. New Orleans Saints: Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech
57. Seattle Seahawks: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland
58. Baltimore Ravens: Davon House, CB, New Mexico State
59. Atlanta Falcons: D.J. Williams, TE, Arkansas
60. New England Patriots: Colin McCarthy, LB, Miami FL
61. Chicago Bears: Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami FL
62. San Diego Chargers (from NYJ): Jordan Todman, RB, UConn
63. Green Bay Packers: Rashad Carmichael, CB, Virginia Tech
64. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kendall Hunter, RB, Oklahoma State
Round 3
65. Carolina Panthers: Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada
66. Denver Broncos: Jabaal Sheard, OLB, Pittsburgh
67. Buffalo Bills: Kenrick Ellis, DT, Hampton
68. Cincinnati Bengals: Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
69. Arizona Cardinals: Marcus Cannon, T/G, TCU
70. Cleveland Browns: Drake Nevis, DT, LSU
71. San Francisco 49ers: Shane Vereen, RB, California
72. Tennessee Titans: Richard Sherman, CB, Stanford
73. Dallas Cowboys: James Carpenter, T, Alabama
74. New Orleans Saints (from WAS): Brandon Burton, CB, Utah
75. Houston Texans: Orlando Franklin, G/T, Miami FL
76. New England Patriots (from MIN): Andy Dalton, QB, TCU
77. Detroit Lions: Mason Foster, LB, Washington
78. St. Louis Rams: Tandon Doss, WR, Indiana
79. Miami Dolphins: Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State
80. Jacksonville Jaguars: Christian Ballard, DT, Iowa
81. Oakland Raiders: Pat Devlin, QB, Delaware
82. San Diego Chargers: Jeremy Beal, OLB, Oklahoma
83. New York Giants: Bruce Carter, LB, North Carolina
84. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tyler Sash, S, Iowa
85. Kansas City Chiefs: Kelvin Sheppard, LB, LSU
86. Indianapolis Colts: Vincent Brown, WR, San Diego State
87. Philadelphia Eagles: Robert Sands, S, West Virginia
88. New Orleans Saints: Allen Bailey, DE, Miami FL
89. San Diego Chargers (from SEA): Quan Sturdivant, LB, North Carolina
90. Baltimore Ravens: John Moffitt, C/G, Wisconsin
91. Atlanta Falcons: Clint Boling, G/T, Georgia
92. New England Patriots: Jaiquawn Jarrett, S, Temple
93. Chicago Bears: Terrell McClain, DT, South Florida
94. New York Jets: Kenny Tate, S, Maryland
95. Green Bay Packers: Jason Pinkston, T, Pittsburgh
96. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kendrick Burney, CB, North Carolina
