Official 2013 NBA Draft Thread

[Elite]

It's never too soon.

The 2012 NBA draft didn't have a lot of sizzle, but it had plenty of depth. With virtually all of the top underclassmen deciding to declare, it was stocked with talent. The 2013 draft? Ugh.

The 2013 draft is so devoid of top returning underclassmen and has such a marginal freshman class, one NBA scout said our 2013 Top 100 list may be the weakest since the dreaded 2000 NBA draft (check out our 2013 draft homepage here).

When you remember that the best prospect out of the 2000 draft was 46th pick Michael Redd, you get a picture of what we might be in for.

This draft does have a couple of interesting returning stars and several intriguing college freshmen -- but it runs out of steam pretty quickly.

We've ranked Kentucky Wildcats recruit Nerlens Noel as the No. 1 prospect in our Top 100 after talking with numerous NBA scouts and executives. Noel is very similar to this year's No. 1 pick Anthony Davis. He is a long, lanky big man who runs the floor, rebounds, blocks shots and plays above the rim. He has to get stronger, but he's a big time talent.

However, none of the scouts we spoke with think that Noel is cut out of the same cloth as Davis as a prospect. He doesn't have the same basketball IQ or motor of Davis, and most scouts believe he's even further behind than Davis was offensively. The one thing he might be better at than Davis? Most scouts say he's an even better shot-blocker.

The vote at the top isn't unanimous, however. A small number of scouts and executives have Cody Zeller as the top pick. The Indiana Hoosiers big man had a terrific freshman season in Bloomington, and scouts say he has been adding much-needed strength over the summer. With the Hoosiers poised to be one of the best teams in the country, he is going to get plenty of attention.

A third player, freshman Shabazz Muhammad, could also be in the running to become the No. 1 overall pick. The UCLA recruit has been compared to a more offensive-minded Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. He has a similar motor and athletic ability, but adds a killer scoring streak to his repertoire. Whether he can show that off in the confines of UCLA's system remains to be seen.

After Noel, Zeller and Muhammad, the consensus breaks down quite a bit.

As you get ready to dig in to our initial 2013 Top 100, here is a look at some themes for next year's draft:

1. A lack of high-quality college holdovers
A very low number of talented players decided to skip the 2012 draft and return to college. Just about everyone with a shot at the first round threw their hat into the ring. Just two returning college players -- Zeller and North Carolina Tar Heels forward James Michael McAdoo -- ended up landing in the top 5 of our rankings.

The next-best returning collegian is the North Texas Mean Green's Tony Mitchell. Memphis Tigers small forward Adonis Thomas, Arkansas Razorbacks point guard B.J. Young, Florida Gators center Patric Young and Texas Longhorns point guard Myck Kabongo all place in the top 14. For perspective, all five of those players would have struggled to crack the first round in the 2012 draft.

2. A solid freshmen class
In 2007, six freshmen -- Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Mike Conley, Brandan Wright, Spencer Hawes and Thaddeus Young -- were drafted in the lottery. In 2008, a record seven freshmen -- Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo, Kevin Love, Eric Gordon, Jerryd Bayless and Anthony Randolph -- went in the lottery.

In 2009, just two college freshmen -- Tyreke Evans and DeMar DeRozan -- were drafted in the lottery. That's a huge drop.

2010 was a bit of a rebound year with four college freshmen going in the lottery. Kentucky's John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins, Georgia Tech's Derrick Favors and Kansas' Xavier Henry were all drafted in the lottery.

In 2011, Duke's Kyrie Irving, Kentucky's Brandon Knight, and Texas forward Tristan Thompson were the only freshmen to go in the lottery. In 2012, the draft had its fair share of stellar freshmen. Kentucky's Anthony Davis, Florida's Bradley Beal, Kentucky's Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, UConn's Andre Drummond and Duke's Austin Rivers all went in the lottery.

In 2013 we're projecting six freshmen as potential lottery picks. They include Noel, Muhammad, Kentucky's Alex Poythress, Baylor's Isaiah Austin, Pittsburgh's Steven Adams and UNLV's Anthony Bennett.

Two other freshmen, UCLA's Kyle Anderson and Kentucky's Archie Goodwin, are possible first-rounders, but most scouts think they may need at least two years on the college level.

3. A better crop of international prospects
2011 was a stellar year for international prospects. Four international players -- Enes Kanter, Jan Vesely, Jonas Valanciunas and Bismack Biyombo went in the lottery. Several others, including Donatas Motiejunas and Nikola Mirotic, went in the first round.

The 2012 crop of international prospects was the weakest in memory. Just one player, France's Evan Fournier, was selected in the first round.

It will be a little better in 2013. We have three players, France's Rudy Gobert, Croatia's Dario Saric and Spain's Alex Abrines, ranked as top-20 prospects. Several other international players, including Russia's Sergey Karasev and Dmitry Kulagin, Spain's Raul Neto and Italy's Alessandro Gentile, are in our top 60.

4. Winging it ...
The 2013 draft is heavy on wings -- a whopping 10 small forwards and seven shooting guards made our top 30. On the other end of the spectrum, we have just two point guards and four centers ranked in the top 30.

The point guard drought is especially depressing. The 2012 crop was historically weak with just one point guard going in the lottery. This year, none of the point guards are ranked in the top 10 and just two are in the lottery.

Overall, the draft class of 2013 should be considerably weaker than 2012. However, it's important to remember that some players that we're not talking about yet will rise -- they always do. Dion Waiters, Damian Lillard and Meyers Leonard weren't listed as potential lottery picks before the season, for example.

As the Nike and ABCD camps and international tournaments get underway, look for further reports, including regular stock watches, updates to the Top 100 and more on our year-round draft blog.

Chad Ford Top 20:
1. Nerlens Noel, C Kentucky
2. Cody Zeller, C Indiana
3. Shabazz Muhammad, SF UCLA
4. James Michael McAdoo, PF North Carolina
5. Alex Poythress, SF Kentucky
6. Isaiah Austin, PF Baylor
7. Steven Adams, PF Pittsburgh
8. Rudy Gobert, PF France
9. Tony Mitchell, SF North Texas
10. Adonis Thomas, SF Memphis
11. Anthony Bennett, PF UNLV
12. BJ Young, PG Arkansas
13. Patric Young, C Florida
14. Myck Kabongo, PG Texas
15. Kyle Anderson, SF UCLA
16. Ricardo Ledo, PG Providence
17. Archie Goodwin, SG Kentucky
18. Dario Saric, SF Croatia
19. Wayne Blackshear, SG Louisville
20. Michael Carter-Williams, SG Syracuse

 

[elcheato]

Adonis Thomas >>>

 

[bosoxlover12]

Two PGs went lottery in 2012, not just 1.

 

[elcheato]

If Thad Matta starts Q-Ross, he'll be a first round pick.

 

[Teagz]

Nerlens Flat top >>>>>>

 

[Elite]

Two PGs went lottery in 2012, not just 1.

Technically Rivers didn't become a PG until after the draft. He worked out with SGs everywhere and he would only be a PG if the Hornets took him.

 

[elcheato]

And you can see from a mile away that he's not going to work out at PG.

 

[bosoxlover12]

Technically Rivers didn't become a PG until after the draft. He worked out with SGs everywhere and he would only be a PG if the Hornets took him.

I was referring to Kendall Marshall and Damian Lillard....

 

[Teagz]

Marshall and Lillard were the two PG's.

 

[Elite]

Forgot Marshall went lotto

 

[MR.ballin]

Have a feeling Shabazz will be the first pick of the draft.

 

[The Young One]

My sleeper guy is Rodney Purvis..Think he has potential as a combo guy and can leave after 1 year.

 

[jonathanlambert33]

Bump, just pinned this.

We've already seen some guys climb boards (McLemore, Carter-Williams, etc), who do you like?

 

[elcheato]

Depending on what teams draft him, I like Otto Porter.

 

[Elite]

Adonis Thomas >>>

Still agree with this?

 

[elcheato]

Yes, forever and ever

 

[CameronCrazy06]

I feel bad for the Wizards. They're gonna get the #1 pick in the two worst drafts to have that pick in this decade.

 

[elcheato]

Next year is the year to tank. Holy shit is that draft loaded.

 

[bosoxlover12]

I feel bad for the Wizards. They're gonna get the #1 pick in the two worst drafts to have that pick in this decade.

Plus they need a SF the most, and while Bazz can play SF he's definitely a SG, and the other SFs suck


Although maybe they tank for a high pick next year since Wiggins and Jabari will probably go 1 and done

 

[jonathanlambert33]

Yeah I think this draft has a little value, but it's really dieing down a bit. Even a guy like Zeller is less enticing than he was last season.

I think he'll be ok offensively, but defensively he'll always be a liability because of his lack of bulk and length (7 footer with a 6'8 wingspan). Put him next to a big bruising rebounder and I think you can hide his flaws but if a team has to ask him to be their best rebounder or a guy protecting the rim that team is in trouble.