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AE's AFC FORECAST
..:: AFC EAST ::..
1. New England Patriots 14-2
**What else would you expect with the NFL's most loaded offense? The Patriots biggest question mark is whether or not their LB corps can make the impact the Pats' D needs. Adalius Thomas failed to live up to expectation last year, Brusci, Vrabel, aren't the playmakers they used to be, Mayo is a rookie, and Victor Hobson is a new addition expected to compete for one of the inside spots. I see the Jets getting the better of New England at least once this year and another loss to either Pittsburgh, at Indy, or at San Diego.
2. New York Jets 10-6
**The addition of Favre definitely makes this offense more consistent but not invincible. Thomas Jones has yet to play to the same standards as he did in Chicago but the addition of Tony Richardson blocking ahead should improve his game. Favre should make Coles and Cotchery look better than he did Driver and Jennings but let's not forget Favre's career-long issues with forcing balls into coverage. The Jets biggest problem coming into the season is their defense. At every area of the defense, I see half playmakers and half average personnel. The Jets don't make the playoffs because the AFC is loaded with 10-plus win teams.
3. Buffalo Bills 7-9
**Not the easiest schedule for a team that I think isn't ready to be considered "rebuilt" just yet. Lynch will be the productive workhorse in the backfield he was last season but the Bills still need to more than just a one-dimensional passing game. Take away the deep balls to Lee Evans and the Bills don't have a passing game. Rookie James Hardy should be a much better compliment to Evans. Defense and Special Teams will keep the Bills in games but unfortunately the Offense fails to put up more points than the other guys.
4. Miami Dolphins 5-11
**The Dolphins future looks bright with a new regime in place but they still have some growing pains to experience. Younger at nearly every spot on the field, the Dolphins have a lot of chemistry to establish with new faces in crucial positions. The addition of Chad Pennington means the offense just got a lot smarter but the receiving corps is mediocre. Teddy Ginn has a ways to go in order to establish himself as more than just an NFL return man and Ernest Wilford is now more than just a slot guy. Ronnie Brown was leading the league in all purpose yards prior to tearing his ACL last season and his performance this season will dictate a lot of the Offense's success. I am predicting the return to old form of Ricky Williams. The Dolphins will grow and be better than last season but an unestablished offensive line and a suspect defense...the Dolphins will have another sweet draft pick in '09.
..:: AFC NORTH ::..
1. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6
**The Steelers are finally starting to count on their offense to win games just as much as their defense and this season, the offense shines even more. Big Ben is transforming into a prolific passer under Mike Tomlin. Hines Ward has lost a step but still a great possession receiver while Santonio Holmes is a solid deep threat with decent speed. Willie Parker has been the team's workhorse back but will share some carries with rookie Rahard Mendenhall, who has excellent speed and the potential to be a franchise back. Heath Miller is great combination to have at tight end. Not does Miller have great hands and the ability to get downfield but he is also a solid blocker. As always, Dick Lebeau will bolster a top 5 defense on stopping both the run and the pass.
2. Cleveland Browns 10-6
**A year ago, critics said this team couldn't win in the AFC North. Now, the rebuilding process is over and the Browns are starting to transition into the dominate AFC North team. Derek Anderson's 2007 season was an unexpected surprise and his real challenge will be living up to it in 2008. Anderson throws a nice deep ball and has a great rapport established with Braylon Edwards. Edwards is a premier NFL receiver who is due an even bigger 2008 with Donte Stallworth running routes on the opposite side of the field with him. Everybody's favorite "Soldier" KW2 is back from an offseason knee injury but should be ready to go as the fearsome, blue-chip receiver he was last season. The Browns' pass rush is much improved with the addition of Shaun Rodgers and Corey Williams. Cornerback is the position where the Browns' defense is going to get hurt. Both Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald have a lot of potential but they have a lot of good receivers to keep up with this season.
3. Cincinnati Bengals 6-10
**After 11 wins in 2006, the Bengals are now declining back to the days of the "Bungals" once again. Chad Johnson is without a doubt one of the most talented receivers in the game but his constant antics and contract disputes has now made him Public Enemy #1 in the locker room. Gone is CJ's chemistry with Carson Palmer and gone is the hope that he remains a Bengal long-term. Rudi Johnson saw three seasons of more than 1,300 yards rushing not so long ago, but looked sluggish and had a hard time staying healthy in 2007. Johnson had a hard time keeping his weight down last season and only mustered a 22-yard run for his longest of the season. The signing of defensive end Antwan Odom makes an interesting pairing with Robert Geathers. Justin Smith's departure prior to last season hurt the Bengals' pass rush but Odom looked like a rising star with Tennessee in '07. The biggest concern in the Bengals defense is rookie Keith Rivers starting at middle linebacker. I won't dig too much into all the potential that Rivers has but I will say that I'm never sold on rookies starting in such a crucial position straight out the gate. Painfully young secondary, overall lack of depth on both sides of the ball. Bottom line is Carson Palmer and the passing game is going to make or break this team.
4. Baltimore Ravens 5-11
**Enter a new, young head coach with familiar uncertainty at the quarterback position and you've got a brutal season for the Ravens. With the retirement of Steve McNair, the Ravens are again looking to find the longterm fit at quarterback and already there's a shuffling amongst Kyle Boller and Troy Smith. A problem that is sure to haunt the Ravens' season...expect Boller to start the season, Smith to get his shot, and Flacco to take over once the season is officially considered down the toilet. The Ravens defense took a major step back last season, ranking 30th in pass yards allowed. Injuries in the secondary had plenty to do with that statistic, so expect Ed Reed & Co. to handle the pass and well as they do the run this season. The Ravens bottom line this season is their defense is going to have to win games this season because their offense isn't going to. Willis McGahee will have another productive season but with much resistance once teams stack the box to stop the Ravens 1 dimensional offense...that is now without franchise tackle Jonathon Ogden for the first time since their induction.
..:: AFC SOUTH ::..
1. Indianapolis Colts 11-5
**The Colts have had a roster capable of winning 11-plus games since 2003 but only once out of the past 4 seasons have they been able to win the NFL crown. Regardless of the 2006 AFC Championship game, the Patriots have had the Colts' number and this off-season the front office did nothing to help them close that gap. Peyton Manning and his offense will still be the same high-power offense that we'd expect. Last season, the Colts' defense was stand up throughout most of last season, even without Dwight Freeney for half the season. Where the Colts D was hurt most and gave up points last season was against teams with above-average rushing attacks. Dwight Freeney's health is a pulsating issue and much of the success of the pass rush relies on him being 100% on the field. In the secondary, the Colts will do what they do best by ball-hawking and covering sideline to sideline. Arguably the best secondary in the league with by far the league's best strong safety. Bob Sanders will continue to be Football's version of a Baseball "5 tool player" and anchor the defense. Expect the Colts to be a major contender for the AFC crown as they seek revenge on last season's division playoff loss to the Chargers and then look to hit the Patriots head on.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 11-5
** The Jaguars come into 2008 with a lot of motivation, strong veteran leadership, and a lot of momentum from the division title run of 2007. David Garrard had an excellent year in, what was, his first as first as the Jaguars 'Field General'. The addition of the sure-handed Jerry Porter gives Garrard the viable #1 receiver with the right tools, something this team hasn't seen since Jimmy Smith retired. The 1-2 punch of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will continue to be the perfect mix of hard-nosed between the tackles and stream line speed around the ends. A big change for a Defense that is a sure top 5 every season...as Gregg Williams brings his high-pressure scheme to Jacksonville. The trade of Marcus Stroud in the off-season hurts the pass rush but a healthy John Henderson and Rob Meier will be enough chaos front and center. The Linebacker corps is the real strength of this defense and it doesn't get any better than Mike Peterson in the middle. Peterson is a great mix of speed and agility, a beast in the open field. The tandem of Rashean Mathis and Brian Williams will continue to be one of the tops in the AFC and Drayton Florence comes into the mix from San Diego, to play nickel. I like the Jaguars gameplay a lot this season. David Garrard is smart, knows how to limit mistakes and history has proven that with good defense, a good ground game, and a quarterback that doesn't make 'bonehead' plays...even a wildcard team can be a Super Bowl Champion.
3. Tennessee Titans 9-7
**A "darkhorse" for me this season, the Titans' biggest problem being the tough division they play in. Say what you like about Vince Young but the guy finds a way to win and even with a horrible receiving corps, Young will produce big plays from his offense. Isn't it interesting that after 2 years in the NFL, LenDale White looks more like an every-down back than Reggie Bush does? Who would of thought? On the defensive side of the ball, Albert Haynesworth is as nasty as it gets when it comes to stopping the run. Kyle Vanden Bosch and the return of Javon Kearse on the ends looks good for defense that was above-average in every stat category in 2007. The Titans schedule is full of winnable games and it's going to come down to Vince Young making plays to win them.
4. Houston Texans 5-11
**I have the Texans at a 2-6 record by week 9, if that's any idea how confident I am in their ability to win games this season. After a disappointing 2007 that saw key free agent acquisition Matt Schaub and Ahman Green go down to injury, the Texans are relying on a healthy offense and an emerging pass rush in 2008. Ahman Green is 100% heading into this season but injuries have always been the constant in his career. Matt Schaub has the ability to be a prolific passer and has the #1 target in Andre Johnson. Interestingly enough, Sage Rosenfels came in and impressed while Schaub missed games due to injury. Don't think Gary Kubiak won't hesitate to sub-plant Schaub with Rosenfels, should the Texans stumble out of the gate. Mario Williams gets better with every down and continues to show us that we were all the 'morons' for criticizing their choice of him over Reggie Bush a few years ago. The Texans play in a division nearly impossible for them to have a chance in and have a tough schedule of Playoff contenders this season. Though they have some playmakers, I still see them as a few more away from having a shot at a playoff push.
..:: AFC WEST ::..
1. San Diego Chargers 13-3
**The Chargers come off an "almost" trip the Super Bowl in '07 and are in even better shape as we look toward '08. With elite talent at nearly every position, a schedule full of inferior teams, and the Norv Turner regime established...there's no reason why the Chargers shouldn't be an AFC Championship contender. LT will continue to do what he does best, OWN and the rest of the offense will continue to emerge behind him. Philip Rivers seems to be progressing with each season, very accurate, and finally a Chargers receiver flashed some dominance with Vincent Jackson making big plays in the '07 playoffs. Chris Chambers was an excellent addition for the Chargers mid-season last year and Antonio Gates is as good as it gets. Defensively, Shawn Merriman, Jamal Williams, and Luis Castillo headline a very aggressive 3-4 scheme. Antonio Cromartie will continue to be a big play magnet and the Chargers will make another huge splash in the post-season.
2. Denver Broncos 8-8
**A lot of questions with the Broncos in 2008. Jay Cutler was strong in 2007 and figured out how easy it was to throw to Brandon Marshall. Much of the offense's production will again rely on Cutler's performance as the Broncos will rely on the passing game as much as the running game to win. A team typically built to produce any 1,000 yard back, all the pressure falls on Selvin Young's shoulders to be that guy this season. After cutting Travis Henry, Young finds himself as the clear-cut favorite to win most of the carries. The biggest concern with the Broncos, for the first time in a long time, the offensive line. Gone is Matt Lepsis, worn down is Tom Nalen, and stepping in is rookie Ryan Clady. Last season, the Broncos defense maintained an excellent pass rush but allowed a ton of rushing yards. Once again, Shannahan has shuffled up his defensive by adding Dwayne Robertson and Boss Bailey. Expect a better performance from the Broncos D in '08 but the uncertainty of the offensive line and the departure of key players on Special Teams keep the Broncos at .500 and out of the division race.
3. Kansas City Chiefs 6-10
**It's amazing to me how fast Larry Johnson's stock has dropped after missing half the '07 season with a broken foot. LJ will bounce back, put up numbers closer to his '06 season, and be the heartbeat of this offense. It's no surprise that the quarterback situation in K.C. has me doubting their ability to win games this season and beyond. If this team wants to get back into winning ways then they need to realize that Brody Croyle is not the long-term answer. It's a shame when you've got top receiving threats Tony Gonzalez and rising star Dwayne Bowe to throw to. The loss of Jared Allen to free agency hurts the Chiefs pass rush big time. The loss of Allen leaves the Chiefs counting on the progression of Tamba Hali, Turk McBride, and rookie Glenn Dorsey. The Chiefs linebacker corps remains a stable of consistency and will get better. Bernard Pollard and Jarrad Page are both emerging safeties but cornerback is a huge concern. K.C. decided to get younger in the secondary and released Ty Law this off-season. The Chiefs will rely on rookie Brandon Flowers to hold down one half of the field while 32-year old Patrick Surtain the other. This may be Herman Edwards last stand with Kansas City. This team has continued to plummet under his watch, the fans are unhappy, and something tells me management's patience are wearing thin.
4. Oakland Raiders 5-11
**Lane Kiffin is in his last year as Raiders head coach unless one of two things goes down in 2008. Either the Raiders miraculously make the playoffs...or Al Davis drops dead. We all know Davis' patience are non-existent with head coaches and he already tried to do away with Kiffin once. A storyline for me this season is JaMarcus Russell getting the run of the show full time. A guy who I see as being from the "Daunte Culpepper mold", Russell has a lot to prove in '08 but has the playmakers to aid him in the process. The addition of Javon Walker looked like a golden move for Oakland but recent reports of him being talked out of retirement question his commitment and desire to play the game. Darren McFadden should get his plenty of playing time to start this season and will be the feature back by Week 3. Defensively, the Raiders biggest problem is Rob Ryan. When Lane Kiffin first took the job prior to 2007, his first step in changing the face of the franchise was doing away with all the "good old boy" coaches that had long been on the staff. Kiffin was successful in firing nearly every coach but one, Ryan. Prior to firing Ryan, Kiffin's decision was vetoed by Al Davis and yet the Raiders defense continues to take steps back. Why the Raiders gave Tommy Kelly the biggest contract ever for a d-tackle, I have no idea...but the addition of DeAngelo Hall creates a dynamic duo in the secondary when paired up with Nnamdi Asomugha. Another brutal year for the Raiders' fans who will find out a lot about their "franchise" quarterback in 2008.
..:: PLAYOFF PICTURE ::..
- Wild Card Round -
3. Colts OVER 6. Browns
5. Jaguars OVER 4. Steelers
- Divisional Round -
3. Colts OVER 2. Chargers
1. Patriots OVER 5. Jaguars
- AFC Championship -
3. Colts OVER 1. Patriots
..:: AFC Champion ::..
Indianapolis Colts
**Most likely a 'shocker' to a lot of you but I'm not so quick to hand the Patriots the right to a Super Bowl trip like most are. Both offenses have plenty of firepower and this game would come down to which defense can come up with the big turnover that would give them their team the go ahead. When looking at both defenses, the Colts have the edge. I think the Patriots letting Asante Samuel get away hurts their passing attack and the Harrison/Wayne tandem would eat Fernando Bryant and Ellis Hobbs alive. The Patriots have long relied on veterans like Harrison, Bruschi, Seymour, and Vrabel to get the job done but age is happening and the Colts have the younger, faster personnel in place. If Dwight Freeney remains healthy, Tom Brady would feel a lot of pressure and Bob Sanders lurking is enough to disrupt the Pats' passing game. The Patriots' loss to the Giants in the '07 Super Bowl showed all of us that they have flaws. While I believe that the Giants couldn't win that game again if the two teams played 99 more times, I do strongly believe that the Colts can beat the Patriots the same way they did in the AFC title game of 2006. Peyton Manning is one of the most determined and cerebral players in the game. There's no way in hell that man allows his 'little' brother to keep the spotlight for too long. -AEIndianapolis Colts