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A new month approaches with the over-under firmly set. Three more trades in December, anyone?
I suspect you won't complain if we do see three more deals between now and New Year's Day after such a lively November. I'm also guessing you could use a list of the 20 most lucrative last-year salaries in circulation, since the pursuit of players in the final year of their contracts has never been more aggressive, as teams all over the league seek salary-cap flexibility in advance of some tantalizing free-agent classes during the next two summers … or payroll relief in this brutal economy.
Says one Western Conference executive: "I honestly think it has more to do with the economy for some teams than the summer of 2010."
Either way, here we go with a detailed look at the 10 biggest expiring contracts and a quick run through the next 10, all after consulting with a few team officials for guidance:
1. Jason Kidd (Dallas Mavericks)
Expiring Salary: $21,372,000
Soon to be traded? HIGHLY UNLIKELY
All the regret the Mavericks are supposed to feel about parting with Devin Harris in February's megatrade for Kidd fails to account for a few key developments in Dallas. 1. Kidd's arrival, if nothing else, rejuvenated Dirk Nowitzki to the point that Nowitzki carried the Mavs into the playoffs late last season, which might have been the only way Dallas was going to get there. 2. Kidd is quietly playing quite well this season under Rick Carlisle, leading the Mavs to believe that one successful trade addition to fortify their woeful bench -- which they presently are pursuing hard by offering up Jerry Stackhouse's cap-friendly contract -- could keep their Nowitzki-Kidd-Josh Howard-Jason Terry core in the West elite. 3. Sources say Dallas has been rejecting all Kidd inquiries because it would prefer to A) put off any drastic alterations until after giving this group an entire season with its new coach and B) play out the season without taking back any salary that extends past the 2009-10 season and into the free-agent bonanza that will follow.
2. Allen Iverson (Detroit Pistons)
Expiring Salary: $20,840,625
Soon to be traded? HIGHLY UNLIKELY
The Answer, as you undoubtedly know, began the season with HIGHLY LIKELY next to his name and indeed was already traded once. He'd have to skip out on numerous practices for the Pistons to consider trading him, since their desire to have loads of salary-cap flexibility to replenish their aging team -- either in July or in the summer of 2010 -- outweighs any concerns about in-house tension Iverson might cause or fears that the Chauncey Billups-for-Iverson gamble is already backfiring. You also have to believe that Pistons president Joe Dumars, who began chasing Iverson when he moved into management at the turn of the century, wants to give his dice roll a full season to pan out.
3. Stephon Marbury (New York Knicks)
Expiring Salary: $20,840,625
Soon to be traded? HIGHLY UNLIKELY
Trading Marbury is more like impossible … as much because of New York's unwillingness as anything. It's almost inconceivable that the Knicks could concoct a trade for Marbury that wouldn't require them to take back an unpalatable contract or two, which could undo all the future promise created by their recent deals that shed the contracts of Jamal Crawford and Zach Randolph. Buying out Marbury or releasing him outright and paying his full salary always have been the only options here. (Malik Rose, by contrast, is No. 13 on this list and does still rank as a trade candidate, but only if the player(s) coming back to the Knicks, as you probably could have guessed, has (have) a contract that runs out after the 2009-10 season.)
4. Shawn Marion (Miami Heat)
Expiring Salary: $17,810,000
Soon to be traded? SOMEWHAT LIKELY
Marion's fate is one of the hardest for folks around the league to forecast. Some teams remain convinced Miami is determined to keep Marion on its books through the end of the season and then let him walk so the Heat can use the resulting salary-cap space to make a run at Utah's Carlos Boozer seven months from now. Others believe the Heat are willing to trade Marion between now and February if they can get back "star quality" or at least players they like whose contracts don't extend beyond 2009-10, when Dwyane Wade hits free agency. The strongest thing we can say is that Marion does have trade suitors (like Toronto) and is the most likely to be moved of the players in our top five. Which might or might not be saying much.
5. Mike Bibby (Atlanta Hawks)
Expiring Salary: $14,983,603
Soon to be traded? UNLIKELY
Bibby is a good fit with the Hawks fiscally and on the floor, as an accomplished shooter who plays well off star guard Joe Johnson … without taxing Atlanta's well-documented financial restrictions. It remains to be seen whether the Hawks will defy the skeptics and try to re-sign Bibby at season's end, but things have gone so well since Bibby arrived -- with Atlanta halting its long playoff drought and taking Boston to seven games in the first round, then starting well this season in spite of multiple injuries -- that you'd expect them to knock back any trade interest. One scenario floated this week suggested that Portland is putting Bibby proposals together.
6. Lamar Odom (Los Angeles Lakers)
Expiring Salary: $14,148,596
Soon to be traded? UNLIKELY
Odom repeatedly has insisted that, even in a contract year, he's OK with his new role as the Lakers' sixth man. If the Lakers are convinced of that, why would they dare mess with their chemistry by trading Odom during the season, especially given how well they've played in November? Even an Odom-for-Marion swap, which does make some sense for both teams, represents a risk for L.A. because Marion isn't big enough to stand in for Andrew Bynum should Bynum's injury issues return. So it's probably smarter for the Lakers to wait until the offseason and bank on the idea that they could convince Odom to participate in a sign-and-trade -- and thereby avoid losing him without compensation -- if the current harmony doesn't last.
7. Rasheed Wallace (Detroit Pistons)
Expiring Salary: $13,930,000
Soon to be traded? HIGHLY UNLIKELY
As with Iverson, Sheed offers a one-of-a-kind presence and skill set combined with a contract that folds perfectly into the Pistons' plans to enter the offseason with numerous options. It's a package way too valuable, in other words, to surrender between now and the deadline.
8. Wally Szczerbiak (Cleveland Cavaliers)
Expiring Salary: $13,275,000
Soon to be traded? LIKELY
Expensive as it'll be for a tax-paying team with Cleveland's $91 million payroll to take on more long-term salary by parting with Szczerbiak, imagine how costly it could be to the value of owner Dan Gilbert's asset if the Cavs don't load up as much as they can between now and July 1, 2010. They already know LeBron James is going to consider all his options in free agency, and they know 10 (or more) teams are going to try to sign him away. The Cavs' best counter is getting as good as they possibly can before James hits the open market in an attempt to convince him that Cleveland is the place to stay. One plugged-in exec insists he can see the Cavs parting with Szczerbiak only in a deal for New Jersey's Vince Carter, but I'm (grudgingly) more inclined to agree with Bill Simmons' belief that the Cavs are after Michael Redd, Mike Miller and several other recognizable names.
9. Raef LaFrentz (Portland Trail Blazers)
Expiring Salary: $12,722,500
Soon to be traded? UNLIKELY
If the Blazers could get an undeniable impact player or a top-notch veteran point guard who doesn't carry a long-term contract, such as Kidd or Bibby, I suspect they'd part with LaFrentz's last-year deal, which is largely covered by insurance payments. In the likely event that they can't? The Blazers have other pieces to keep offering in trades -- such as Sergio Rodriguez, Channing Frye and Ike Diogu, although teams prefer to ask for Travis Outlaw -- and good reason to hang onto LaFrentz and let him come off the payroll at season's end, with several talented kids on the roster soon to be looking for contract extensions.
10. Andre Miller (Philadelphia 76ers)
Expiring Salary: $10,333,334
Soon to be traded? UNLIKELY
There will be no shortage of interest in Miller if the Sixers do decide to make him available. Most teams don't expect that to happen, given Philadelphia's playoff aspirations and the fact that Miller and high-profile newcomer Elton Brand already have some familiarity after playing together with the Clippers. But there is a sense that if the Sixers continue to disappoint/underachieve, Miller could end up on the market, since he's the most movable player Philly has and since the Sixers already are out of the 2010 free-agent frenzy.
The next 10 richest expiring contracts:
11. Memphis' Antoine Walker ($9,052,460)1; 12. Indiana's Rasho Nesterovic ($8,400,000); 13. New York's Malik Rose ($7,647,500); 14. Houston's Ron Artest ($7,400,000); 15. Cleveland's Eric Snow ($7,312,500); 16. Chicago's Drew Gooden ($7,151,183); 17. Indiana's Marquis Daniels ($6,864,200) )2; 18. Oklahoma City's Chris Wilcox ($6,750,000); 19. Sacramento's Bobby Jackson ($6,487,888); 20. Chicago's Ben Gordon ($6,404,750) 3
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