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http://www.thebirdwrites.com/2014/6/9/5776060/the-jrue-holiday-trade-examining-opportunity-costA Logical Discussion
Let me lay out my biases for you straight away. I firmly believe that the Pelicans are a better basketball team with Jrue Holiday on it in place of whomever they would have selected with the sixth pick last year and the tenth pick this year. This is my opinion, and I understand that many might not share this opinion. Bill Simmons is chief among those who disagree. I base this on Simmons's own reasoning, that larger pieces of currency are typically more useful to a basketball team than change which equals a similar sum. In this case, I believe Jrue Holiday is a dollar, and the two draft picks are more likely to be eighty-five cents in change.
Ryan Schwan has gone over the expected production by NBA Draft slot. Rohan also pulled projections from Basketball-Reference in this post. To simplify things to lowest possible denominator, the chance of getting a (as in just one) solid starter from the sixth and the tenth pick is less than 100%. Trading a less than 100% chance of a solid starter for a 100% chance of a solid starter (in the person of Jrue Holiday) is a logical move in my eyes.
Smith stops with his "analysis" there. The team would be better with the sixth and tenth pick, they are in need of talent, and nothing screams "talent" like players who have never played a game in the NBA. A draft pick is a blank slate on which all kinds of wishful thinking can be drawn upon. Julius Randle is Zach Randolph. Aaron Gordon's floor is Shaun Marion or Tony Allen. Jabari Parker is going to be the next Carmelo Anthony.
What if Julius Randle turns out to be the next Marcus Fizer? Do you even know who that is or that he went fourth in the NBA draft just fourteen years ago? What if Aaron Gordon is the next Al-Farouq Aminu? Of course Gordon is not nearly as long and cannot shoot half as well at this point in their lives. What if Jabari Parker is the next Corey Maggette? Teams with draft picks draw up their "worst case" scenarios to still sound great; that means they probably are not even considering an actual worst case scenario.
Opportunity Cost
For a quick primer on the economic concept of opportunity cost in the NBA, I highly suggest reading this article from Nick Lewellen at Bourbon Street Shots.
There is a solid argument against the Jrue Holiday trade though, and I am going to go at length to explain it. Step one is determining what the Pelicans would do with the sixth pick if they did not trade it. Everything reported at the time suggested that was the case. NOLA.com noticed the trend of the mock drafts. Rohan even has a "The New Orleans Pelicans Select Trey Burke With The 6th Overall Pick" still sitting in our editorial queue as I write this very piece.
Trey Burke came out of the gate with a broken finger, missing the team's first twelve games. He also struggled all season long converting shots, shooting just 38% from the floor and 33% from behind the arc. Burke did excel at taking care of the basketball, turning the ball over on just 12.2% of possessions according to Basketball Reference. His shot chart, as you will see below, was not a very pretty sight.
But again, this is not just about Trey Burke, it is about all the other dominoes drafting Trey Burke would effect. First and foremost is the acquisition of Tyreke Evans. The Evans trade sent out both Greivis Vasquez and Robin Lopez in order to make salaries match as I outlined on July 4th. Portland sent Sacramento two second round picks, the Knicks' 2016 second round pick (protected 31-37) and swap rights for Portland's second round pick (which only makes sense if Sacramento's pick is worse than Portland's). In essence, a pile of garbage for helping the trade work.
In the alternate reality of drafting Trey Burke, the Pelicans do not need to send out any salary whatsoever. They could sign Tyreke Evans to the same contract outright instead of negotiating a sign and trade. Let me demonstrate.
