Rockets may consider overhaul if there is no NBA season

[jonathanlambert33]

Players can dunk their way through All-Star games. Lawyers can file lawsuits and bill clients. David Stern, commissioner of a league with no games, and Billy Hunter, leader of a union downgraded to a trade association, can spew sound bites and blame one another.

The NBA is in its "nuclear winter" of discontent. Coaches and general managers and all those who answer to them can fill their time trashing their plans for the season that might never come to begin the painfully slow process of preparing for the next season.

For the Rockets, the potential demolition of the 2011-12 season could change everything.

For the bulk of six months, Daryl Morey, Kevin McHale and the rest of the Rockets' front office prepared for the 2011 free-agent period and subsequent season now in jeopardy.

If the NBA is to remain in storage until the 2012-13 season while the sides in the labor impasse move to legal proceedings, the Rockets' strategies and roster could be dramatically different than if the NBA opened for business in time to play the 2011-12 season.

The biggest change could be the most obvious. The Rockets had planned to start retooling with at least 10 players from last season's roster under contract. If the season is lost, they could choose to have as few as three players - Kevin Martin, Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry - locked up.

The Rockets could opt to start nearly completely over, possibly with two more lottery picks and cap room for two max contract players in what would be the largest free-agent class ever.

Before they get that far and make those decisions, a great deal would have to be determined if the league must reassemble itself following the loss of a season.

The next draft could be the first big step. When the NHL lost the 2004-05 season, it put together a draft lottery involving every team, with the lottery chances weighted based on playoff appearances over three years and first overall draft picks in a four-year period.

Defining the lottery

The NBA has not reached any decisions, but it is less likely to give all 30 teams a chance at the top pick. If there is a lottery based on a three-year period, an important consideration for the Rockets would be whether draft position or record is considered. The Rockets made the playoffs just once in the past three seasons but averaged 46 wins over that stretch.

They would keep their 2012 first-round pick if it lands in the lottery; it would go to the New Jersey Nets if it falls to the 15th pick or later.

The Rockets also would have the New York Knicks' first-round pick unless it lands in the top five. The Knicks also failed to make the playoffs in two of the past three seasons.

For now, the Rockets can't know if they will have one, two or no first-round picks. But the chance at two picks in the first half of the first round could be key with the 2012 draft class expected to be the best since 2003.

The makeup of the Rockets' roster could be even more unpredictable. Goran Dragic and Courtney Lee would become free agents. Hasheem Thabeet, Jordan Hill, Jonny Flynn and Terrence Williams could be.

The Rockets had the option to extend the contracts of Thabeet, Hill, Flynn and Williams for the 2012-13 season, but that deadline passed during the lockout. The NBA could grant additional time to exercise such options and make it part of a labor agreement, but it is uncertain if the Rockets would bring back so many players who have played so little for them.

Chase Budinger's contract also would be up, but the Rockets almost certainly would have a chance to exercise an option to extend his contract.

Reaching for the stars

If the Rockets don't pick up options, they would have spent a first-round pick to get Williams for 11 games and would have traded Shane Battier at the end of his contract for two games with Thabeet (plus a future pick they included in a deal to draft Donatas Motiejunas).

The advantage of cleaning house could be the chance at a free-agent haul. Nearly a third of the league could have as much spending room under a $58 million salary cap as the Rockets would with only Martin, Scola and Lowry under contract. But they likely still would have room for two max free agents in a free-agent year that would be highlighted by Dwight Howard and Chris Paul.

With the Rockets desperate for stars to be the foundation of their rebuilding, their goal after a lost season would clearly be to add at least one of the top free agents to Scola, Lowry and Martin, along with recent draft picks Patrick Patterson, Marcus Morris, Motiejunas and Chandler Parsons, next season's selections and whomever among their own potential free agents they bring back.

For now, the Rockets and the rest of the NBA can only guess how or when the league will rebuild itself if it loses an entire season. Planning for that might prove a waste of time, but to general managers and coaches who prepared for free agency and a season that may never come, the same might be said of the past six months.

They might as well start rebuilding their roster.

 

[DJT]

Seems like they already did...