Profile of a Shooter: Josh Smith

[jonathanlambert33]

In Marchs Analytics Issue of ESPN The Magazine, one of the headline-grabbing graphics was the following proclamation: Dwyane Wade is the worst three-point shooter in NBA history. Its a bit of a stretch perhaps, taking advantage of todays stretchy NBA where the three-ball is more important than ever. But Wade actually does have a modern counterpart whose outside shooting stats are even worse. And it wont be a surprising name to many.

No one knows if Josh Smith is destined to be in Detroit much longer. Quite clearly, hes not a good fit with the Pistons young frontcourt duo of 24-year-old restricted free agent Greg Monroe and soon-to-be 21-year-old stud Andre Drummond. The team had a -8.0 net rating with all three on the court, in about one-third of last seasons overall minutes. It was pretty horrendous for a team with mild preseason playoff aspirations.

So whats the deal with the 28-year-old Josh Smith? He was pried away from Atlanta last summer with a four-year $54 million contract. The deal wasnt all that horrible in a vacuum, but the fit was always a question. Mostly because Detroit was set to play him alongside Monroe and Drummond, where Smith would need to shoot somewhat to space the floor. And he cant. He really cant.

Below are Smiths final four seasons in Atlanta, as visualized by Austin Clemens shot charts:

Even if you cant view the image that clearly, its probably for the best. You can still see a lot of blue. What could possibly have given off the impression that Smith could shoot? During these four seasons, Smith shot 34.0% from mid-range, 32.1% on corner three-pointers and 29.2% on above-the-break three-pointers. The sample size is horrifically large. The league averages are at least 5-7% higher from all three of those shooting zones.

There was a brief long-distance shooting reprieve in 2009-10 when Smith miraculously decided to take only seven threes all season. But he still was atrocious from mid-range only 28.1% that year. Hes an incredible athlete that should thrive in the restricted area (and he did, to the tune of 67.6% these four years) but hangs around the perimeter far too much.

And that was the case last year, predictably so, when he was forced into way too much time at the 3:

http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/07/21/profile-shooter-josh-smith/