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While watching film with Joe Theismann this week, he wondered what Aaron Rodgers‘ completion percentage would be if you took dropped passes out the equation. To expand on that: There is no statistic that truly accounts for a quarterback’s accuracy. Drops, throwaways, and spikes are all incompletions that a QB is usually not responsible for. What would happen if we took these out of the equation? The result was what we call a “True QBR” rating.
To calculate the “True QBR,” every throw from all of the QBs has been watched on coaching tape and dropped passes, throwaways, and spikes have been factored in. We then subtract those throws from the total attempts category, as well as drops that led to interceptions from the interception total; then we recalculated the completion percentage and yards per attempt, and adjusted their QB ratings using the NFL’s QB rating formula to come up with a “True QBR.” The last column, change in QBR, is the difference between their NFL rating and our rating. The players with the largest changes are significantly more accurate than their NFL QB Rating suggests. Here is a sample of what the chart looks like, using Aaron Rodgers as an example, along with a graph of various QB’s ratings:
To calculate the “True QBR,” every throw from all of the QBs has been watched on coaching tape and dropped passes, throwaways, and spikes have been factored in. We then subtract those throws from the total attempts category, as well as drops that led to interceptions from the interception total; then we recalculated the completion percentage and yards per attempt, and adjusted their QB ratings using the NFL’s QB rating formula to come up with a “True QBR.” The last column, change in QBR, is the difference between their NFL rating and our rating. The players with the largest changes are significantly more accurate than their NFL QB Rating suggests. Here is a sample of what the chart looks like, using Aaron Rodgers as an example, along with a graph of various QB’s ratings:
