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From:realgm
Jeff Risdon/RealGM - The NFL Scouting Combine kicks off next week, which presents the last real chance for significant movement up or down draft boards. Most teams use the Combine workouts to confirm and verify what they have seen on tape, not to make rash judgments based on an outstanding or lousy performance. The one area where prospects can really sink or swim is the interview process, which is the one part of the Combine not shown on TV.
This edition is higher on the QBs and lower on the offensive tackles, with a late 1st-round run on the tackles. The first running back doesn’t even make the first round, and I think that is a very likely scenario if Miami and New England pass. The move towards a shared backfield makes RB a less pertinent draft priority.
1. Carolina Panthers: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn.
This slot is his to lose, or have his Auburn teammate Cam Newton usurp it from him. With a good performance during workouts and interviews at the Combine, it’s hard for me to see him not being the #1 pick.
2. Denver Broncos: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Denver used every single pick they have in this draft on defense. The only starting spots on defense set for beyond 2011 are defensive end (Dumervil and Ayers). Most think Dareus is a more natural 3-4 end, but John Fox loves his bulwark tackles, and Dareus has the bulk to pull it off.
3. Buffalo Bills: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn.
Newton’s upside is too high to fall much below this slot, and Chan Gailey is perhaps the best possible coach for him. Gailey isn’t afraid to be creative and play to the strengths of his QBs. Just a guess here, Bills fans, step back from the ledge…
4. Cincinnati Bengals: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson.
Like the Bills above, this is not necessarily their biggest need, but Bowers could pair with Carlos Dunlap to provide a huge, lethal set of athletic ends to make life difficult for opposing offenses.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M.
New DC Ray Horton lives and breathes pressure defense. Miller is the best pass rusher in this draft and has shown he can fit very well in a zone blitz scheme. I strongly believe the Cards will attack their QB issue with a veteran acquisition.
6. Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia.
The Browns need a #1 WR more than any other team needs any other position, save for maybe Dallas at offensive tackle or Minnesota at quarterback. Green is the clear cream of the WR crop; it’s not close, and that’s despite having a lot of talented wideouts in this draft.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Aldon Smith, LB, Missouri.
I see the 49ers being in the same boat as Cleveland last year regarding their QB situation. A veteran will be brought in, and they’ll spend a high pick on one as well…just not their first pick. The pass rush has to improve, and Smith is a great, long athlete that can find the QB.
8. Tennessee Titans: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri.
The coaching changes buy them a developmental year for a rookie QB, and Gabbert has shown he can make all the throws--most of the time. A year with Kerry Collins mentoring and sharing the load should do wonders and set the Titans at QB for years. Hopefully.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU.
Even though they desperately need at least one starting offensive tackle, they can’t pass on such potential dominance at another position of dire need. As splashy as Peterson is, it’s rare for corners to go above this range and he has more warts than the general public thinks. The depth of the offensive tackle class allows them to afford the shot here.
10. Washington Redskins: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama.
I get the feeling Mike Shanahan isn’t as worried about their QB situation as everyone else is. Whoever is taking snaps (Kyle Orton? Rex Grossman? Alex Smith?) will need better receivers, and Jones has a chance to be special.
11. Houston Texans: Robert Quinn, LB, North Carolina.
Upgrading the pass rush and moving to the 3-4 defense means the Texans need some juice at OLB. Quinn was dripping with juice in 2009, and his 2010 suspension won’t be held against him.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas.
Big, strong-armed, and fearless, Mallett can make plays that generate the “wow” factor. Many worry about his ability to handle pressure, both on the field and in the locker room, but the Vikings are desperate for QB help and Mallett could be a very good one.
13. Detroit Lions: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska.
I’m not convinced the Lions are in love with Prince the way many scouts are, but they’re not blind to his impressive cover skills. They need all coverage skills they can get in a division with Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler.
14. St. Louis Rams: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado.
He might be the best pre-throw cover man in this draft, the kind who plays coverage that says “no chance over here” and not the QB-baiting style of Peterson or Amukamara to a lesser extent. That fits with Steve Spagnuolo’s style.
15. Miami Dolphins: Cameron Jordan, DE, California.
As mentioned above, 3-4 ends are at a premium. Jordan has all the tools to become a very good one, and his off-field charm is great insurance against draft-board sliding.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jake Locker, QB, Washington.
Locker would be the #1 QB without question if he had even rudimentary accuracy. The Jaguars need the intangibles he brings, and there is growing optimism that Locker’s accuracy will improve with a better supporting cast.
17. New England Patriots (from OAK): Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois.
This probably seems high for a player largely unknown outside Big Ten country, but there is a lot of Richard Seymour to his game. The Patriots still haven’t replaced the original Seymour, and need to do so ASAP.
18. San Diego Chargers: Nate Solder, T, Colorado.
The big man has the highest upside of any tackle in this draft, and he’s pretty darn good already. I actually cannot imagine the first tackle coming off the board this late, but this owes to the great defensive talent in this draft. The Chargers are my #1 candidate to trade backwards.
19. New York Giants: Tyron Smith, T, USC.
His weight, or lack thereof, is a concern, but the former TE is a more natural blocker than the Niners’ Joe Staley, also an athletic former TE. The G-Men suffered a major regression on the OL last season and won’t move forward without addressing it.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue.
Kerrigan has the pelts on the wall to prove he can make plays in the backfield, and his first step is probably the quickest in this draft. The Bucs have to upgrade the pass rush if they want to catch the Saints and Falcons.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Danny Watkins, G, Baylor.
His advanced age (he’s 26) will turn off some, but for a current playoff team it means he’s game-ready and mature enough to handle expectations. The Chiefs got lucky up front last year and Scott Pioli isn’t the type to depend on a repeat performance.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Castonzo, T, Boston College.
Castonzo has the versatility to play either tackle spot but also guard, which provides needed options as the Colts perform an overdue overhaul of their offensive line.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Derek Sherrod, T, Mississippi State.
The run on tackles continues with Sherrod, who has great feet and is good at blocking down the field. That’s an important attribute with a QB that likes to run like Michael Vick and you can bet Andy Reid knows that.
24. New Orleans Saints: Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA.
Ayers is the best of the more traditional LBs in this draft, i.e. not a pass rushing specialist or converted college DE. The Saints can use his presence outside Jon Vilma in a division with some strong tight ends. New Orleans is another good candidate to trade backwards to a team looking for a specific player in this range.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh.
He has some off-field issues, but Baldwin has flashed incredible talent between the white lines. Pete Carroll’s hyper-competitive atmosphere could allow the big, physical Baldwin to blossom into the next Brandon Marshall.
26. Baltimore Ravens: JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin.
He fits the Ravens mold--hyper-aggressive, very physical, able to play multiple spots, smart both on and off the field. I suspect that if any of the above offensive tackles were available, they would be the pick here instead.
27. Atlanta Falcons: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa.
He’s a great fit to rotate with Jon Abraham at RDE, and Clayborn is big and strong enough to slide inside for passing downs. Big Ten running backs are still feeling his hits, and that kind of nastiness is something the Falcons can use.
28. New England Patriots: Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia.
Before his injury issues this draft slot would have been much lower than his talent level dictates. He’s a great all-around player with a high football IQ--a Belichick requisite--and his closing burst is exceptional for a guy his size.
29. Chicago Bears: Maurkice Pouncey, C/G, Florida.
He’s not quite as quick or precise as his Pro Bowl twin brother, but he’s close enough to merit 1st round status. The Bears still need lots of help on the interior OL, as Olin Kreutz isn’t even a summer chicken anymore.
30. New York Jets: Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor.
The lack of interior presence was painfully obvious in the playoff loss, and the massive Taylor has the ability to step right in and shore things up.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Gabe Carimi, T, Wisconsin.
The way Carimi approaches the position just screams “Steelers”. Not the most nimble afoot or great in pass protection, Carimi uses his length well. But it’s his run blocking prowess and flat-out nastiness that make him a 1st round candidate, and the Steelers can use him right away at either tackle spot.
32. Green Bay Packers: Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami FL.
It’s hard to find any real pressing needs for the Super Bowl champs, but a more reliable WR with size is high on the list. Hankerson overcame the dropsies early in his Hurricanes career and he’s great at both transitioning from receiver to runner as well as perimeter blocking, attributes the Packers admire.
Round 2
33. New England Patriots (from CAR): Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
34. Denver Broncos: Quinton Carter, S, Oklahoma
35. Buffalo Bills: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
36. Cincinnati Bengals: Titus Young, WR/KR, Boise State
37. Arizona Cardinals: Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois
38. Cleveland Browns: Jabaal Sheard, DE/OLB, Pittsburgh
39. San Francisco 49ers: Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
40. Tennessee Titans: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
41. Dallas Cowboys: Ben Ijalana, T/G, Villanova
42. Washington Redskins: Stefen Wisniewski, C, Penn State
43. Houston Texans: Muhammad Wilkerson, DL, Temple
44. Minnesota Vikings: Rodney Hudson, G/C, Florida State
45. Detroit Lions: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
46. St. Louis Rams: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland
47. Denver Broncos (from MIA): Drake Nevis, DT, LSU
48. Jacksonville Jaguars: Bruce Carter, LB, North Carolina
49. Oakland Raiders: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
50. San Diego Chargers: Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois
51. New York Giants: Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
52. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami FL
53. Kansas City Chiefs: Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Troy
54. Indianapolis Colts: Greg Jones, LB, Michigan State
55. Philadelphia Eagles: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
56. New Orleans Saints: Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech
57. Seattle Seahawks: Jurrell Casey, DT, USC
58. Baltimore Ravens: Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville
59. Atlanta Falcons: Ronald Johnson, WR, USC
60. New England Patriots: Mason Foster, LB, Washington
61. Chicago Bears: Kenrick Ellis, DT, Hampton
62. San Diego Chargers (from NYJ): Deandre McDaniel, S, Clemson
63. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kendall Hunter, RB, Oklahoma State
64. Green Bay Packers: Jason Pinkston, T, Pittsburgh
Round 3
65. Carolina Panthers: Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada
66. Denver Broncos: D.J. Williams, TE, Arkansas
67. Buffalo Bills: Quan Sturdivant, LB, North Carolina
68. Cincinnati Bengals: Daniel Thomas, RB, Kansas State
69. Arizona Cardinals: Clint Boling, G/T, Georgia
70. Cleveland Browns: James Carpenter, T, Alabama
71. San Francisco 49ers: Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah State
72. Tennessee Titans: Luke Stocker, TE, Tennessee
73. Dallas Cowboys: Jaiquawn Jarrett, S, Temple
74. New Orleans Saints (from WAS): Rashad Carmichael, CB, Virginia Tech
75. Houston Texans: Robert Sands, S, West Virginia
76. New England Patriots (from MIN): Christian Ballard, DE, Iowa
77. Detroit Lions: Kelvin Sheppard, LB, LSU
78. St. Louis Rams: Lance Kendricks, TE, Wisconsin
79. Miami Dolphins: Jordan Todman, RB, UConn
80. Jacksonville Jaguars: Shareece Wright, CB, USC
81. Oakland Raiders: Dontay Moch, LB, Nevada
82. San Diego Chargers: Jarvis Jenkins, DT, Clemson
83. New York Giants: Colin McCarthy, LB, Miami FL
84. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Brooks Reid, DE/LB, Arizona
85. Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Dalton, QB, TCU
86. Indianapolis Colts: Ryan Jones, CB, Northwest Missouri State
87. Philadelphia Eagles: Tyler Sash, S, Iowa
88. New Orleans Saints: Allen Bailey, DE, Miami FL
89. San Diego Chargers (from SEA): Jeremy Kerley, WR/KR, TCU
90. Baltimore Ravens: Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky
91. Atlanta Falcons: Rob Housler, TE, Florida Atlantic
92. New England Patriots: Jerard Tarrant, S, Georgia Tech
93. Chicago Bears: Niles Paul, WR, Nebraska
94. New York Jets: Lawrence Wilson, LB, UConn
95. Pittsburgh Steelers: Marcus Gilbert, T, Florida
96. Green Bay Packers: Korey Lindsey, CB, Southern Illinois
