I think Wade is the x-factor. If we see the same Wade that we saw in Game 7 it's going to be tough for the Spurs. If we saw the same one we saw in other games I like the Spurs.
Personally, I've got the Spurs winning this series in 6 games. If it goes to a Game 7, then I have the Heat taking it in 7. Wade and Bosh are the keys to this series. If they play the series like the played Indiana, then the Heat aren't going to have a chance against San Antonio. Even LeBron putting up video game numbers won't help them against a much better offensive team in the Spurs. The Pacers could contain everyone but LeBron, but their offense failed them in their losses. San Antonio isn't going to have that kind of problem.
In the one game Wade didn't guard Paul George, he looked great (Game 7).
There is only one player on the Spurs who could aggravate Wade like George did, and thats Parker. So the key to Miami's success isn't Wade or Bosh, its Mario Chalmers.
If Chalmers can play defense well enough on Parker (which he probably can), Heat are golden. Wade can focus on offense, and he and the Heat have the series in 4-5 games. If Rio cant guard Parker, then Miller/Ray come in for Chalmers and it becomes a much tighter series.