"Moose" Hunting: Restricted Free Agency

[jonathanlambert33]

The Pistons will face some major decisions this summer, such as whether Joe Dumars will remain the President of Basketball Operations, who will replace him if he is not retained, and who to hire as the next (temporary) Head Coach.

But another very significant question is what the organization will do about big man Greg Monroe. While there was plenty of speculation that Detroit might trade him back in February, the word was that they rebuffed any offers. As a restricted free agent, Detroit can certainly keep him if they are willing to match any competing offer(s) he receives this summer. Presumably, his agent, David Falk, will search for another NBA team willing to sign Monroe to a maximum contract of approximately four years/$60 million. The Pistons would have three days to match that offer, or lose him for nothing. If they are unwilling to match it, Detroit would probably try to execute a sign-and-trade in order to get some return on their investment in Monroe.

 
PART ONE


 

ast week we began this series by highlighting the importance of the decision the Pistons must make in July about their free agent big man, Greg Monroe. Before we look at some more of the franchises that could pursue him, let’s review what he has done in Detroit.

Picked seventh in the 2010 NBA Draft, Monroe started 48 games as a rookie. Since then he has been remarkably durable, missing only one start. While his scoring and rebounding averages are down slightly from last season (16.0 points and 9.6 rebounds per game), that seems to be primarily attributable to a reduction in his usage. Yet in a recent article on Pistons.com devoted to Monroe, Keith Langlois noted:
 

Monroe’s numbers in 15 games under Loyer are 16.3 points and 10.8 rebounds, over his season averages of 14.7 and 9.2. He’s playing about three more minutes a game, nearly 36, than he was over the first 50 games.

Now after 19 games with John Loyer as his head coach, "Moose" is averaging 16.4 points and 10.4 boards. By comparison, his Per36 career averages are 15.9 points and 10.3 rebounds.

While he played center his first three years in Motown, this season Monroe has started at power forward. It’s apparent that he is still adjusting to this role. Some observers believe that center is his more natural position, and he has continued to play center in 2013-14 when Andre Drummond is on the bench. This ability to play both spots might appeal to other teams as much as it has to the Pistons.

The market for Monroe this summer will be influenced by the fact that there will be few other quality big men available as free agents. Among players from his draft class, Sacramento locked up DeMarcus Cousins (four years/$61 million) and Utah extended Derrick Favors (four years/$48 million) last fall. Memphis’ Ed Davis will be a Restricted Free Agent, too, but his productivity (career averages of 21.1 minutes, 7.0 points, 6.0 rebounds) will probably not command a top deal.

At age 25, and with three-point range, Cleveland’s Spencer Hawes will also attract attention. Washington’s Marcin Gortat will be an Unrestricted Free Agent, and is due for a raise. But at age 30 he does not possess the upside of the 23-year-old Monroe. So among the big men available, "Moose" should garner the most interest.


Today, we will look at five more prospective suitors for Monroe’s services:
 


PART TWO

 

[jonathanlambert33]

Now here are five more franchises that could target Monroe this summer:

New Orleans Pelicans

Would they want Monroe? If the prospect of a Davis/Monroe frontline appeals to them, then the answer is yes. It’s hard to envision a more complementary pair, and they could quickly give the Pelicans the league’s most dominant frontline.

Can they afford him? New Orleans has $56 million tied up for 2014-15, so their only option is to make Detroit an attractive trade proposal.

What can they offer? While they would no doubt love to unload Eric Gordon (two years/$30.4 million) or Tyreke Evans (three years/$32.2 million), neither player should interest the Pistons. Ryan Anderson (two years/$17 million) and Austin Rivers (two years/$5.5 million) would be a more equitable return.

Should Detroit be interested? Anderson (age 25) will be returning from back surgery, but as a career .386 percent three-point shooter he would give them a true floor-stretching big man to complement Andre Drummond. They could hope that Rivers still has unrealized potential.

Will Monroe land in New Orleans? Since he originally hails from "The Big Easy," this city might appeal the most to him. But with Anderson coming off back surgery, the Pistons should probably seek greater security in any exchange for their most durable player.

Phoenix Suns

Would they want Monroe? They have a bevy of bigs in Channing Frye, Alex Len, Markieff Morris and Miles Plumlee, but Monroe would bring them unique skills as a scorer and rebounder. He would be more likely to play center for the Suns.

Can they afford him? With just $31.5 million committed for 2014-15, they nevertheless must resolve cap holds for Eric Bledsoe, Frye, Emeka Okafor and P.J. Tucker. But if they want to pursue Monroe, Phoenix could offer him a max deal by first renouncing everyone but Bledsoe, whose cap hold is only $6.6 million.

What can they offer? The Suns have lots of cheap, young talent on their roster. Frye has a player option for $6.8 million for next year. Currently their highest salary is for Goran Dragic (two years/$15 million). Detroit could hope to take its pick among Gerald Green, Archie Goodwin, and the Morris brothers (Marcus or Markieff). Frye and Green (one year/$3.5 million) might be an intriguing offer, especially if a first round pick is included.

Should Detroit be interested? Probably not. Frye is 30 and Green is 28, so they offer no upside potential. Neither Morris brother represents a fair return, either. Unless Phoenix was willing to include Dragic, it’s difficult to see how they would be a good trade partner for the Pistons.

Will Monroe land in Phoenix? Most likely, he will not.

San Antonio Spurs

Would they want Monroe? With Tim Duncan (age 37) and Boris Diaw (age 31) logging most of their frontcourt minutes, the Spurs need an infusion of young talent. Matt Bonner is 33 and Tiago Splitter is the "youngster" at age 29.

Can they afford him? San Antonio has significant cap holds for Bonner and Diaw to resolve and Duncan has a player option. Currently they have $52.4 million committed, so they are in no position to present a max contract to Monroe.

What can they offer? The Spurs and Pistons would have to negotiate a sign-and-trade, and the asking price could very well be Splitter (three years/$26 million) and Kawhi Leonard (one year/$2.9 million). While that might be expecting too much, anything less would probably be too little. Including Kyle Singler could possibly balance the equation.

Should Detroit be interested? Leonard is one of the top young (age 22) small forwards in the NBA, and if he is made available this deal would be worth a very careful look. Otherwise, no.

Will Monroe land in San Antonio? Most observers think Leonard is as close to unavailable as anyone on their roster can be. If that is so, then it’s hard to envision them acquiring "Moose."

Utah Jazz

Would they want Monroe? It’s very questionable, since they have youthful bigs in Favors (age 22) and Enes Kanter (age 21). But if they are not sold on that pairing, they might envision "Moose" as a better fit with either guy.

Can they afford him? With only $31.4 million tied up for 2014-15, the Jazz could afford to make a max offer to Monroe. They also face a contract decision with Gordon Hayward, whose cap hold is $8.6 million.

What can they offer? If Utah covets Monroe, but does not wish to retain Hayward, a swap of the two 2010 picks is conceivable. Hayward is a dynamic wing who scores, rebounds and facilitates, though his scoring efficiency has dropped this season. Yet such an outcome seems very unlikely. And if they would prefer to have Monroe instead of either Favors or Kanter, it’s hard to imagine the Pistons viewing one of them as a better match with Andre Drummond.

Should Detroit be interested? Unless Hayward is offered in a mutual sign-and-trade, there’s nothing for these teams to discuss regarding Monroe.

Will Monroe land in Utah? Probably not.

Washington Wizards

Would they want Monroe? It’s long been rumored that the Wizards covet him, and he would certainly be a fine addition to their frontline. Marcin Gortat’s deal is expiring, and at age 30 he’s not the best big for the long haul for a team built around John Wall and Bradley Beal. Their only other sizeable post presence is Nene Hilario, who is 31.

Can they afford him? They have $46.9 million on the books for next season, with sizeable cap holds pending for Trevor Ariza, Trevor Booker, Kevin Seraphin and Gortat. If they renounced them all, they might be able to present Monroe with a competitive contract.

What can they offer? Not much. Beal (two years/$10.2 million), Otto Porter (three years/$15 million) and Martell Webster (three years/$16.8 million) are about all that’s available, and it’s doubtful Beal is on the table. They would probably swap Nene (two years/$26 million), but what difference should that make?

Should Detroit be interested? No.

Will Monroe land in Washington? No.

PART THREE

 

[jonathanlambert33]

bump for the afternoon crowd

 

[Pugz]

ive said if we were to trade moose that id look at the suns and try to nab len since he could could he a third big off the bench.