Is Austin Rivers Better?

[jonathanlambert33]

After last season many of us were highly disappointed with the prospects of Austin Rivers being a staple for the New Orleans Pelicans moving into the future. He posted what some considered was the worst rookie-season ever.

Much of this criticism was overblown quite a bit because of his family name and the praise he received coming out of high-school.

However, after a solid off-season and a strong summer league many fans and commentators look at Austin Rivers a little bit differently. The question that I’ve heard many ask is whether Austin Rivers is actually better.

Let’s investigate.

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[playmaker7]

I haven't seen him much this year, but from what I've seen, I wouldn't call him better than he was previously.

 

[jonathanlambert33]

He's definitely better than he was last year. If you read the article, it says that he has improved in every statistical category, and the eye test backs that up as well. I know some people will say he's a below average player, which he is, but you have to take into account where he was last year and where he is this year. He made a good jump, and if he can make another jump this offseason, he'll be a legitimate NBA rotational player.

If you watch him every game like I do, you can even see him improving as the season goes on. Over the last two weeks he's averaged 9 pts and 2 asts while shooting 46% from the field. The work ethic and talent is there, and more improvement will come.

 

[elcheato]

So basically, instead of a shit sandwich, he's a shit sandwich with bacon.

All in all, its still a shit sandwich

 

[CameronCrazy06]

He's better but he's still below average. I really hope he succeeds though.

 

[Thomas-Panda-Saxby]

Has he even gotten minutes this year? 

 

[CameronCrazy06]

He is now with all the injuries they have.

 

[jonathanlambert33]

So basically, instead of a shit sandwich, he's a shit sandwich with bacon.

All in all, its still a shit sandwich

It's all about improvement. Nobody will have a rookie season as bad as his, then come out his sophomore season and be above average. It's a long long road, and there has been a number of players who had rookie seasons as bad as Rivers. Lance Stephenson, Jamal Crawford, Al Harrington, Rashard Lewis, Dorell Wright, among others. The only guy who had a rookie season comparable to Rivers, in terms of PER, who made the jump to an average NBA player in one offseason was Jamal Crawford.

It just doesn't happen, Crawford is the exception, not the rule. Players don't make that big of a jump from their rookie to sophomore season. Rivers has showed positive signs, and he'll continue to improve. You can't expect or ask for anything more.

 

[elcheato]

I'm not expecting any more, and I'm also not expecting him to be an average NBA player. That's just my personal opinion after seeing his game in the pros, which is not what I expected. I had high hopes

 

[jonathanlambert33]

There is no doubt in my mind he'll become a average NBA player. Infact, if he can add any kind of midrange game, he'll be better than average, especially if you factor in both sides of the ball. I wouldn't have always said that, especially early last season.

 

[jonathanlambert33]

I'm curious cheato, what makes you think Austin can't build upon the player he is, but Bennett can? And their skill isn't an answer, because they both obviously have it.

 

[CameronCrazy06]

Austin Rivers has skill but he was clearly overrated coming out of HS and out of college. He never should've been a lottery pick.

 

[jonathanlambert33]

I don't think he was overrated coming out of college, the guy was picked apart pretty good and aside from Toronto and New Orleans wasn't really being looked at as a lottery pick. More so in the 16-18 range. And honestly, looking at it from the Pelicans point of view, I'm not really sure who I would have taken over him.

Not saying he's better than anyone taken after, just a lot of the guys I liked (Henson, Jones, Sullinger) were all PF's and you had just drafted AD. And they wanted a guy who could create off the dribble. Jeremy Lamb is really the only one.

 

[elcheato]

I'm curious cheato, what makes you think Austin can't build upon the player he is, but Bennett can? And their skill isn't an answer, because they both obviously have it.

Because I don't think Bennett will have a problem finishing around the rim in the future like I anticipate will plague Rivers in his career, and Rivers' jumper will not make up for that problem, because it might not even be considered average at this point.

Position plays a role too, because I think Bennett will be a match up nightmare when he puts it together (which I think he will).

Another problem is Rivers needs the ball in his hands to be at his absolute best, similar to a Dion Waiters, but the question that is asked, is are they good enough to justify putting the ball in their hands and taking it out of the hands of a Kyrie, Jrue, Tyreke, etc.. For now, the answer looks like a no on both, although Waiters has showcased a bit more ability. Point remains

I'm on mobile, sorry if this doesn't make sense

 

[jonathanlambert33]

Because I don't think Bennett will have a problem finishing around the rim in the future like I anticipate will plague Rivers in his career, and Rivers' jumper will not make up for that problem, because it might not even be considered average at this point.

Position plays a role too, because I think Bennett will be a match up nightmare when he puts it together (which I think he will).

Another problem is Rivers needs the ball in his hands to be at his absolute best, similar to a Dion Waiters, but the question that is asked, is are they good enough to justify putting the ball in their hands and taking it out of the hands of a Kyrie, Jrue, Tyreke, etc.. For now, the answer looks like a no on both, although Waiters has showcased a bit more ability. Point remains

I'm on mobile, sorry if this doesn't make sense

See, I'm just not sure if I agree with that.

I'll start with the he needs the ball in his hands. I've always been a defensive guy, some people act like defense doesn't exist, and some say the game is 50% offense and 50% defense. I disagree with that, I think the game is more like 60% defense and 40% offense, maybe 55/45, but you get the point. And that is where Rivers is different from Waiters. Austin can impact a game with his defensive abilities. His size, athleticism, instincts, and ability to move his feet give him the ability to be a very good on ball defensive player. Because of his size, he can also play and guard multiple positions, which is always a plus. I know defense doesn't necessarily count as a "ball in your hands" argument, but it does show that he isn't useless if he didn't have the ball in his hands.

But it goes past that, on the offensive side of the ball. He has the ability to spot up on the weakside and space the court. He's shooting 39% from three this season on real three point attempts, but more importantly on actual spot up attempts he's shooting an incredible 54.5% from three. He also does a solid job moving with the basketball. Curling into the lane off of screens, backdoor cuts, deep cuts, flair cuts, all those things. So I wouldn't say he's useless without the ball in his hands.

Finishing at the rim, Rivers shot 44.8% at the rim/in the restricted circle last season. Obviously really poor. But after only one offseason, he's already improved that number by nearly 10%, shooting 54.1% this season. His efg% this season at the rim is also 61%, which is up from 48%. So you say finishing at the rim will plague him throughout his career, but we see a guy who has a strong work ethic and in one offseason has improved as much as he is, why wouldn't we think he will continue to improve? And to take it a step further, that 10% climb is a big increase, and the league average at the rim this season is around 56% or 57%, and like I said Rivers after a horrid rookie year, is now shooting 54%. You have to take into account that league average included forwards and centers, which always drives the number up from what an NBA guard averages. Usually we're talking about a 2 percentage points climb between NBA guards and the league average, so it's likely that Austin is already around or at the league average for guards at the rim. So again, we've already seen him make a big improvement, so why wouldn't we believe he will do it again? Just this season he has made strides, he shot 56.5% at the rim during the month of January.

 

[CameronCrazy06]

Austin Rivers isn't as good of a shooter as you think he is, and there's no better evidence of that than his free throw percentage. It was a problem at Duke too. He's very streaky from the three point range, and unless miracles happen, I don't think he's developed much of a mid-range game either (saw a lot more of him last year than I have this year).
 
I also can't buy into you saying he's going to be a very good defensive player.

 

[jonathanlambert33]

Austin Rivers isn't as good of a shooter as you think he is, and there's no better evidence of that than his free throw percentage. It was a problem at Duke too. He's very streaky from the three point range, and unless miracles happen, I don't think he's developed much of a mid-range game either (saw a lot more of him last year than I have this year).
 
I also can't buy into you saying he's going to be a very good defensive player.

I have trust that he'll knock down a spot up three, nothing more than that though. I don't think he's a good shooter right now, and I don't think he'll ever be a "good" shooter. Just a decent one. The coaches have worked a lot of him on his form on his jumper and free throw and it's helped him make some improvement.

And I think you say that you don't buy into him being a very good defensive player, because like you said, you haven't seen that much of him this year. It's easily the best and most developed part of his game. I've been saying it since last season, and the article in the first post talks about his defensive abilities.

 

[CameronCrazy06]

I have trust that he'll knock down a spot up three, nothing more than that though. I don't think he's a good shooter right now, and I don't think he'll ever be a "good" shooter. Just a decent one. The coaches have worked a lot of him on his form on his jumper and free throw and it's helped him make some improvement.

And I think you say that you don't buy into him being a very good defensive player, because like you said, you haven't seen that much of him this year. It's easily the best and most developed part of his game. I've been saying it since last season, and the article in the first post talks about his defensive abilities.

 
Then why is his defensive rating no better? Just curious.
 
Also his ball-handling/quickness will always be the best part of his game.

 

[jonathanlambert33]

We have a number of guys who are good on ball defenders. Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon, Austin Rivers, Tyreke Evans, Al-Farouq Aminu, but for whatever reason, Monty Williams has a philosophy of over helping on defense off the ball, and as a result it leads to a lot of bad defense. Every Pelicans guard or swing rates very poorly in categories like spot up defense as a result.

The article I posted touches on this as well. One example is Austin Rivers leaving Jimmer Fredette wide open to help out the low post, and as a result can't get back to recover before Jimmer nails a three, which counts towards Austins defensive rating. Another example was Reggie Jackson getting into the lane against Brian Roberts, and per Williams defensive philosophy, all the Pelicans sink into the lane to defend the drive and the rim, and as a result Austin leaves Derrick Fisher (a 36% 3pt shooter) all alone in the corner, and by the time Austin recovers Fisher is already into his shooting motion and drains the shot.

 

[jonathanlambert33]

It's why I've always been so hard on Monty. He's a great guy, but his defensive system isn't fit for this age of basketball, and his game management is awful.