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Blake
I'm goin' lamb bruh.
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1. St. Louis – Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
It seems something of a given at this point that the Rams will go with Bradford. It’s as good as pick as any. The Rams were one of the worst teams in NFL history last year and, included among the misery, was a No. 31 ranking in Passing YPA. If it were up to us, we’d put all the other pieces in place first before getting our rookie QB killed. But NFL teams seem obsessed with getting a young QB killed first. Hey, it’s their No. 1 pick. We're just mocking it.
2. Detroit – Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
There are many, many problems with the Lions. But Detroit's misery begins and ends with a series of teams that have fielded the worst pass defenses in the history of football. Berry is widely considered the best DB in the draft with the potential of an Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu. The conventional wisdom is that the Lions will go with Nebraska stud Ndamukong Suh. But if they pick anybody but Berry – or anybody but a DB – management should be shot for incompetence in the line of duty.
3. Tampa Bay – Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
The Buccaneers had their share of problems, too, last year. The biggest problem, though? They couldn’t run the ball and they couldn’t protect the passer. So a blindside anchor at LT is the obvious first pick – especially considering that Donald Penn, the LT on last year’s ineffective unit, is looking to move out of town. However, the Bucs weren’t much better on the DL, either: No. 26 in our Defensive Hog Index and dead last in run defense (4.78 YPA). And Suh is a potential game-breaking talent that NFL scouts are in love with.
4. Washington – Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
The Redskins were serviceable on defense last year. And, believe it or not, they were passable passing the ball (16th in Passing YPA), too. The Offensive Hogs, however, were the team’s lowest-ranked unit (No. 27 overall) and the Redskins ranked No. 29 running the ball (3.85 YPA). New coach Mike Shanahan can use a guy like Okung to reinvent the Washington ground game in his image.
5. Kansas City – Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
The run on Sooner State talent should continue here with the No. 5 pick. Kansas City’s once-proud Defensive Hogs have been lost since Jared Allen left town two years ago. In fact, they’ve been terrible both years. The Chiefs ranked No. 28 in our Defensive Hog Index in 2009, including No. 28 at forcing Negative Pass Plays and No. 31 stopping the run. KC needs a player like McCoy to live up to the hype.
6. Seattle – Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
The Seahawks have two big needs: pass defenders and offensive linemen. GM John Schneider indicated recently that he doesn’t expect old man Walter Jones to return this year. So he’s probably tipped his hand here in a year in which there seems to be an abundance of anchor tackles available in the draft.
7. Cleveland – Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
The Browns are in desperate need of help in the passing game, which ranked dead last in the NFL last year (4.39 YPA). They’ve made it no secret that they want Sam Bradford and want to trade with St. Louis to get him. Barring that move, they may end up with Clausen. He's ranked on almost every board as the second-best passer available even though, well, even though you and we know that Tim Tebow is the best passer in the draft. But we digress. On the bright side, the Browns had so much success with the last Notre Dame quarterback they took No. 1 in the draft, what could possibly go wrong?
8. Oakland – Mike Iupati, G, Idaho
The Raiders were tied with the Lions for dead last on our Offensive Hog Index last year – and anytime you’re tied with the Lions in any indicator, it’s bad news for your organization. Sure, the Raiders picked Robert Gallery No. 1 a few years ago. But it looks like they still need plenty of help on the OL. Iupati, a massive guard, might be a big boost in the middle of a group of Offensive Hogs who need all the help they can get.
9. Buffalo – Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Yeah, a total stretch here on most boards. But we’re rolling the dice. Offensive line is absolutely Buffalo’s No. 1 need in the 2010 draft (No. 29 last year in OHI). So the Bills should go with one of the big studs at left tackle, like Anthony Davis out of Rutgers, or potential franchise center Maurkice Pouncey from Florida. However, the team has been desperate for a quarterback since the end of the Jim Kelly Era, there’s really nobody encouraging on the roster right now, and the potential and promise of Tebow will be too much to resist. We think. But, then again, we're just mocking. We have no money to lose.
10. Jacksonville – Joe Haden, CB, Florida
The Jaguars ranked 30th in Defensive Passer Rating last year and allowed opponents to complete nearly 68 percent of their passes. This poor performance in pass defense was the biggest reason why the Jaguars struggled through a 7-9 season. We’ve seen in recent years with the Jets and Bills, meanwhile, what a young stud in the secondary can do to almost instantly improve a team’s pass-stopping capabilities. Haden is probably the best cover man in the draft and, if he’s still on the board by this point, the Jaguars absolutely have to take him.
11. Denver – Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
The Broncos need to put some offensive weapons around Kyle Orton after a season in which they scored 20.4 PPG (20th) and just traded away their top playmaking talent, Brandon Marshall, to Miami. Wide receivers are enormously huge risks in the first round, as we’ve chronicled over the years. But Bryant is a potential game breaker and the Broncos desperately need one. So risks be damned.
12. Miami – Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
We thought the Dolphins would and should first go with a playmaker in the secondary. But then longtime stalwart Jason Taylor (7 sacks last year) just signed with the Jets. So they’ll be tempted to grab Jason Pierre-Paul, the pass-rushing DE hybrid out of Florida in the mold Taylor himself.
13. San Francisco – Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
Yup, we’re definitely going against the grain here. McCoy was a brilliant quarterback in college; incredibly accurate and a nimble runner, too. In fact, he’s in the Steve Young mold, almost the same exact size, too. That’s going to be a tempting combination for a team that was solid in many ways last year, except in the passing game (No. 25 in Passing YPA). There is no “quarterback of the future” on the roster right now – seriously, you want to leave your team in the hands of Alex Smith or David Carr? Hey, it’s your life ... it's their team. We’re just telling you what they should do.
14. Seattle – Earl Thomas, S/CB, Texas
In the wake of the Walter Jones situation, the Seahawks will probably address their offensive line needs with the first pick (at No. 6). Here at No. 14, assuming they hold on to both picks, they need to shore up a secondary that surrendered a 93.4 Defensive Passer Rating last year. Only four teams were worse. They could choose USC safety Taylor Mays, but we’re betting Thomas, who's been projected by some to play corner as well.
15. N.Y. Giants – Taylor Mays, S, USC
Anything but a shutdown pass defender will be a mistake by the Giants, who ranked No. 29 last year in Defensive Passer Rating, allowing 31 TD passes while nabbing just 13 INTs.
16. Tennessee – Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
Tennessee needs a defensive playmaker to shore up its sub-standard Defensive Hogs. McClain was the best linebacker in the nation last year and the best defender on the best team in football. If the Titans bring back Albert Haynesworth, then Tennessee could instantly have a Super Bowl-caliber defense. They ranked No. 28 in scoring D and in total D last year.
17. San Francisco – Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
The 49ers need to shore up a group of Offensive Hogs that ranked No. 21 on our board last year.
18. Pittsburgh – Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama
The Steelers need help on the OL (No. 22 on our OHI) before they need help on the DL. But as noted in Bonzo’s mock draft, the Steelers did plummet from No. 1 on our DHI in 2008 to No. 12 in 2009. Cody is a textbook 3-4 nose tackle and the 350-pounder will be too tempting to resist.
19. Atlanta – Jerry Hughes, DE/LB, TCU
Look for a pass-rushing stud here for a unit that was among the worst in football at forcing Negative Pass Plays and was dead last in third-down performance. Hughes, college football’s sack leader in 2009, fits the bill.
20. Houston – Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
Houston, as noted by Bonzo’s masters here at CHFF, still has a porous defense despite years of high draft picks among the Defensive Hogs. The Texans do have a Super Bowl-caliber offense. So Hughes, the nation’s top sack-man (15) last year and leader of one of the nation’s best defenses, could prove the right pick for both Bonzo and the Texans and a strong partner with MLB DeMeco Ryans, the team’s best defender.
21. Cincinnati – Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
The Bengals struggled passing the ball last year (5.71 YPA). They’re not ready to bail on Carson Palmer yet. But they need to find some sort of help in the passing game.
22. New England – Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
The Patriots are desperate for a playmaker on D. Morgan is considered one of the best pass rushers in this year’s draft. He’s a bit undersized by NFL standards for a DE, but could be a great hybrid in the Willie McGinest mold.
23. Green Bay – Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
The Packers need to project Aaron Rodgers better than they did last year. They're statistically stout in most other areas, so OL is certainly the most pressing need. Bulaga may be gone by this point. But if he's there, the Packers must take him (or whichever stud OT is available).
24. Philadelphia – Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
The Eagles need help in the secondary and on the offensive line. Everybody anticipates a safety, as the Eagles missed Brian Dawkins last year and tumbled from No. 5 to No. 11 in Defensive Passer Rating. But the premier safeties should be gone by this point. So we’re guessing they attempt to shore up the OL in front of a unit that no longer will have Donovan McNabb at the helm. Plus, it seems a deeper year for offensive lineman than corners and safeties.
25. Baltimore – Golden Tate, RB/WR, Notre Dame
It's the same old story in Baltimore: they need to find a way to shore up a passing attack that, once again, was the team’s statistical weak link (No. 13 in Passing YPA). An offensive playmaker is really the team's only big statistical need, and Tate was an exciting talent both running and catching the ball for the Irish.
26. Arizona – Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
As noted in Bonzo’s mock draft, the Cardinals were torched for 90 points and seven touchdown passes in two playoff games last year. They’re desperate for help in the secondary – even if the team did end the year No. 10 in Defensive Passer Rating. Wilson might prove a very good value this late in the first round and the Cardinals would be wise to take him.
27. Dallas – Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers
The Cowboys need help in the secondary (No. 16 in Defensive Passer Rating). McCourty will be the best CB on the board by this point.
28. San Diego – Brandon Graham, DE/LB Michigan
The Chargers desperately need to shore up some of the worst Defensive Hogs in football. As we saw in the playoff loss to the Jets, the weak link for San Diego is its defensive front.
29. N.Y. Jets – Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech
Rex Ryan needs to put some offensive weapons around Mark Sanchez. We know it. You know it. Even Jets fans know it, and they're not too bright. The Santonio Holmes signing could be big, but it's not a guarantee of success yet. Thomas is widely considered the second best prospect at the position behind Dez Bryant. The organization clearly appears to be putting all its chips on the table for a 2010 Super Bowl run. Thomas could add some more excitement.
30. Minnesota – Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama
Minnesota’s No. 1 goal in the draft must be to fix one of the worst pass defenses in football last year (No. 27 in DPR). Jackson might be a stretch in the first round, but the Vikings have few other choices. Oh, sure, it'd be nice if they dumped BrettFavre, too. But apparently that won't happen.
31. Indianapolis – Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
The Colts have only one glaring statistical weakness: their Defensive Hogs were among the very worst in football last year – No. 30 overall and No. 31 in third-down defense. The 330-pound Williams will provide some beef for Indy’s otherwise speedy defense.
32. New Orleans – Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State
The Super Bowl champs were statistically dominant across the board last year, easily the No. 1 in average Quality Stats ranking. However, the team was not flawless: the Saints had a lot of trouble stuffing the run. Opponents gashed them for 4.52 YPA in 2009, bad enough for 27th in the NFL. Odrick could prove a much-needed addition.
