Bware's First Round Preview and Predictions: Western Conference

BwareDWare94

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Golden State Warriors (1) versus New Orleans Pelicans (8)
 
Summary
The Warriors ran away with the regular season. The Pelicans got healthy late and came on strong, stealing the final playoff spot with a decisive and impressive win over the defending champions. The Warriors thrive on threes. The Pelicans defend threes very well. There's star power on both squads, but both are anchored defensively by less-heralded but very good centers in Bogut and Asik. Despite all of the attention that goes to the Splash Brothers, the Warriors thrive on the defensive tenacity of Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green. Despite the greatness of Anthony Davis, the Pelicans wouldn't be anywhere without Tyreke Evans. It's a series of stars and sidekicks.
 
Key Pieces
Warriors--Curry, Green, Bogut
Pelicans--Davis, Evans, Gordon
 
X-Factors
Warriors--Thompson, Speights
Pelicans--Asik, Holiday
 
Maximum Win Totals
Warriors--4
Pelicans--3
 
Minimum Win Totals
Warriors--4
Pelicans--0
 
Prediction
I understand that I'll turn some heads with my max win total for the Pels, but they match up very, very well with the Warriors, and if they can find ways to shorten the game and control the pace, they'll be in it. Nevertheless, I expect the Warriors to eventually take control of the series. 4-2, Warriors.
 
Houston Rockets (2) versus Dallas Mavericks (7)
 
Summary
The Rockets snuck into the 2 seed via a division title, and the Mavericks limped to the finish line. Neither team is healthy, but the Mavericks' health concerns are with significantly more important players. Chandler Parsons will be gimpy. Rajon Rondo has yet to fit in. Dirk Nowitzki is starting to show his age, and the bench isn't nearly what it was before the Rondo trade. Houston has every opportunity to take control of this series early.
 
Key Pieces
Houston--Harden, Howard
Dallas--Chandler, Ellis, Carlisle
 
X-Factors
Houston--Jones, Brewer, Ariza
Dallas--Nowitzki, Rondo, Aminu
 
Maximum Win Totals
Houston--4
Dallas--4
 
Minimum Win Totals
Rockets--3
Mavericks--0
 
Prediction
I can't disrespect a division rival and even pretend that Houston isn't vulnerable in this series. Nevertheless, I feel that Dallas is too depleted, and likely won't win this series. If the Mavericks can keep James Harden off the free throw line by avoiding swipes at the ball as they funnel Harden into Tyson Chandler, they'll have a chance. 4-2, Rockets.
 
Los Angeles Clippers (3) versus San Antonio Spurs (6)
 
Summary
The Spurs were on a roll, only to lose their final game to a hot team and fall all the way to the 6th seed. Due to their run, the great play of the Clippers went mostly unnoticed. It should be a great series.
 
Key Players
LAC--Paul, Griffin, Jordan
SAS--Leonard, Parker, Duncan, Pop
 
X-Factors
LAC--Redick, Crawford, Rivers
SAS--Ginobili, Splitter (if he plays), Mills
 
Maximum Win Totals
LAC--4
SAS--4
 
Minimum Win Totals
LAC--2
SAS--1
 
Prediction
There are certain years where the Spurs are more vulnerable than others. This is one of those years, and I expect the Clippers to take surprise control of this series early. Perhaps the reign of Duncan is finally over. 4-2, Clippers
 
Portland Trail Blazers (4) versus Memphis Grizzlies (5, with Home Court Advantage)
 
Summary
Both of these franchises dealt with injuries and limped into the playoffs. The Memphis Grizzlies will at least survive those injuries as both Mike Conley and Tony Allen should be ready to go. The Blazers, on the other hand, lost the rising Wes Matthews for the season, and have never recovered.
 
Key Players
Portland--Aldridge, Lillard
Memphis--Gasol, Conley, Joerger
 
X-Factors
Portland--Batum
Memphis--Green, Allen
 
Maximum Win Totals
Portland--4
Memphis--4
 
Minimum Win Totals
Portland--0
Memphis--3
 
Prediction
I don't think the Blazers can survive the defensive issues brought on by the absence of Wes Matthews. I think the Grizzlies send this to Portland with a 2-0 lead and close it out in 5. 4-1, Grizzlies
 

cruzg24

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Damn dude great job. I think Zbo is a key player though lol.
 

CameronCrazy06

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Good write up. Would've liked to have seen a "minimum win totals" too haha
 

BwareDWare94

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Minimum Win Totals added to both threads. Wish I'd have thought of that. Could have made something funny out of it.
 

Pugz

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very good read, per usual.
 

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