2012 Draft Picks 1-10 Advanced Metrics

[jonathanlambert33]

1. Anthony Davis - Offensive/Defensive Rating - 113/104, WS - 6.1, WS/48 minutes - 0.159
A good rookie season for the top pick. Was very productive despite his frame. Led all rookies in win shares and 2nd in win shares per 48 minutes. Total shooting of 56%, PER of 21.8. Good rebounding and shot block rate. Showed a good jumper as well. Hopefully we see more in the post as his frame improves the next few years. He's a keeper!

2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - 102/110, 2.1, 0.051
Not a great season for the youngster, but showed good scoring around the basket and rebounding. Expectedly dreadful beyond the arc. Needs to work on his shooting to compliment his driving to the basket and finishing well. Did shoot well from the FT line at 74%. Total shooting was 50% and PER of 14. If he can improve on his jumper, he will be a very good player in this league since he has the potential to score in the paint and defend with great athleticism. Still very young compared to the other rookies. Shooting lessons.

3. Bradley Beal - 102/105, 3.0, 0.082
Beal is another young player at age 19. Improved throughout the season. Shot 39% from 3's and 79% from the line. Didn't shoot well from 2's which dropped his total shooting to 52%. Defense waOs ok, but will improve as he gets older. Will be a good fit next to Wall with his shooting off the ball. Needs to increase his FG%. Only 41% this year.

4. Dion Waiters - 99/111, 0.9, 0.026
Didn't think Waiters was a top 5 pick. Maybe top 10. Struggled this year. Had a high usage even playing next to Irving and had only a 49% total shooting. 31% beyond the arc. Had a PER of only 13.7. Still wasn't the worst top 5 pick. That dude is next on the list. Like his backcourt mate in Irving, didn't defend well. Had a good assist rate for a shooting guard. Still, he and Irving seem to be a bad fit together. That team needs someone who can defend on the perimeter. Otto Porter?

5. Thomas Robinson - 90/107, -0.1, -0.002
Where do I start? By far the most disappointing rookie. A 3 year player out of college, struggled mightly against backups. Folks here would have loved to have him. A couple of people liked him over Unibrow. He won the debate here as a better PF than Jared Sullinger which clearly wasn't the case. I barely had him top 10 coming out. Thought was too limited outside of his motor and rebounding. Total shooting was awful at 45%. PER of 10.9. Turnover prone. Got traded to Houston and even lost his backup PF spot to another rookie PF in Terrence Jones who was drafted at 18. (I had Jones rated higher coming out). He did rebound well which was expected, but did nothing else. Still think he can be a double-double guy with hard work, but won't provide much else outside of those stats.

6. Damian Lillard - 108/112 - 5.8 - 0.088
A four year player coming out of college and showed his experience by earning a ton of minutes. Second in win shares by Unibrow. Scored and assisted. Showed his ability to shoot and create his own shots. Total shooting of 55% which is good. Needs to improve his defense and become more efficient. His win shares per 48 minutes wasn't top 5 among rookies, mostly because of his lack of defense and inefficient shooting. I think other rookies will surpass him in the top 5 range, but he will be a long-time starter and possible occasional All-Star. I liked him during the college season, but felt his draft status rose too high. Still, he performed like a top 5 pick and earned the Rookie of the Year award.

7. Harrison Barnes - 102/107 - 2.8 - 0.065
Didn't love Barnes coming out but liked him since I felt he could be a starter at SF for a long time as a complimentary player. Total shooting of 53% was solid and he can shoot. Was solid defensively, but needs to improve. His win shares per 48 minutes wasn't that high, but he was good enough to start on a playoff team and he will improve. Won't be an All-Star probably or a top 2 option, but will be a very good complimentary player as a guy who can shoot, defend, and very athletic and long at his position. Won't create his own shot or score off the dribble consistently.

8. Terrence Ross - 98/109 - 0.9 - 0.034
Athletic with the potential to be a good shooter. Started slow early in the season but slowly improved. Total shooting was 49% and 3-point was 33%. Needs to improve on that. Also needs to improve his defense. Toronto wanted a SG who could play off the ball which is why they passed on Rivers. I thought Jeremy Lamb would have been a better option. Think he's a better prospect in general and a little younger with potential to be a better defender. Still, Ross can be a solid starter in this league eventually as his shooting improves. Not there yet.

9. Andre Drummond - 114/99 - 4.5 - 0.172
Definitely the biggest surprise of this rookie class. I had him around the 8th best prospect after a disappointing freshman season, but he played like a top 2 prospect. Highest win shares per 48 minutes among rookies. Strong rebounder and shot blocker. Shot 60% from the field due to his size and athleticism. Started at the end of the season and played strong in his starts. He sucks at the line. Very bad and will hurt him late in games. Otherwise will be a solid starter in this league and is very young as well. Shoot em underhanded!!!

10. Austin Rivers - 89/114 - -1.1 - -0.038
Tough rookie season overall for the youngster. Forced to start with Gordon injured and had to play off the ball which is not his strength. Struggled shooting overall. Should have gotten more experience at the point and playing with the ball in his hands, but it didn't happen. Did show potential defensively, but still needs to improve alot at the end. Needs to get stronger and work on his shooting. Could have used another year in college, but has a good work ethic and showed improvement in his last few games. Can get to the basket but needs to finish better and shoot better from the line. Think he will be a combo guard off the bench long-term. Needs alot of work, but is very young still and on a rebuilding team.